by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool
Celtics Nation, with ESPN's #1 Pom-Pom Waver Bill Simmons in the lead, is pinching themselves over the gift that Kevin McHale is giving them. Kevin Garnett, a top 5 player and a big man who should eat the Eastern Conference alive, is coming for a collection of players that won't do anything to help the 'Wolves escape the Western Conference cellar.
So why am I, a lifelong hater of the Green, not all that worried?
First, because my Sixers aren't gong to win no matter what Boston does. But more importantly, because it's not going to work. And by not working, I mean Failure Writ Large in the Western Sky, Danny Ainge run out of town on a rail, and Garnett looking as homicidal as he was when he had to put up with the likes of Marko Jaric and Ricky Davis.
But how? It's the East. LeBron just made it to the Finals with a supporting cast that was weaker than community theater. How can three All-Stars not make the C's a top 4 team?
Let me count the ways.
1) The rest of the team.
Unless you continue to light a candle in the window for Rajon Rondo, there isn't a player on the roster who has anything close to a plus offensive game. Who's hitting the spot-up jumper? Who's keeping the other team honest to the point that the Big 3 aren't all playing 40 minutes a game? Your candidates include... um... well, I could tell you the names, but unless you're a Celtics fan, you don't know who they are, and if you are a Celtics fan, you're still gibbering like an idiot that you're getting KG. So. Moving on.
2) They won't stay healthy.
29,602. 35,542. 24,620. Those three numbers are the career minutes played for Allen, Garnett and Pierce. Are you ready to bet that they're all going to stay healthy, especially when they all have to log heavy minutes? Me neither.
3) The coach eats paste.
Doc Rivers couldn't figure out a playing rotation when he had a semblance of an NBA roster. You think he's going to be any better with the NBDL Traveling Team outnumbering actual basketball players?
4) The expectations will be ridiculous.
There's a reason the rest of the country calls their fans Massholes; they're silver-spoon types that are also convinced that Randy Moss equals Super Bowl, and that everyone roots for the Sawx because they're just so gosh-darn lovable. When they start the year 12-8, the focus will be on why they're only four games over .500. When Allen goes down, the focus will be how they have no backups. It's not going to be pretty.
5) The division will be better.
This is along the lines of it can't get worse, but the Titanic Division will be surprising next year. Toronto is setting up Phoenix North with a motion offense that's going to test a thin and aging Celts team. The Nets get back Nenad Krstic -- huge for them -- and added just what they needed in the draft with a shot-blocking center. The Knicks are a train wreck, but with talent; they could match up very well with a team that starts bench players at 1 and 5. Even the Sixers will be better, with Andre Iguodala continuing to emerge and a full year of Andre Miller at the point.
6) It's just not easy to go from 24 wins to 55. Even when you throw games.
In NBA history, this trick only gets done when a team hits the lottery and adds a breakout talent, like when the Spurs added David Robinson. KG's amazing... but is he *that* much better than Jefferson and the reasonable Ryan Gomes, especially when he's paired up with Kendrick Perkins, or people who are somehow worse than Kendrick Perkins?
7) The conference will be better.
Yes, it can't get worse, but hear me out. Detroit and Cleveland aren't going to fall apart. With no Oden and Durant to tempt teams into fraud, the bottom teams in the conference aren't going to mail it in again. Miami will have Angry Thinner Shaq, a presumed healthy D-Wade, and the bad taste of a first round exit. Chicago is a match-up nightmare, with energy players all over the place.
The Wiz get back Arenas. The Magic added Rashard Lewis, and even though the contract was terrible, he's going to make them better on the court in the short run. Charlotte brought in Jason Richardson; he could take it up a notch in the East. Atlanta finally has a point guard. There won't be quite as many easy wins.
The Celtics could be much better and hold at 48 wins.
8) If these guys are so good...
Why have all of their teams missed the playoffs so often? Yes, I know, I know, terrible supporting casts and it's hard in the West and yada yada yada. Winners get to the playoffs. Stat guys get their stats. I'm just saying.
9) All-Star Teams Never Work.
Who shuts down penetration? Who takes charges? Who sets the screens that make Allen and Pierce have fresh legs in the second half of the season? Who's the energy big man defender to be the Oberto to KG's Duncan? Where's the out of nowhere guy who can stretch the opposing defense and score double digits off the bench?
All open questions. And if you had a coach or a GM that could find their ass with both hands and a map, it probably wouldn't be a worry.
Worry.
10) This franchise is cursed.
Len Bias. Reggie Lewis. The last draft. Rick Pitino. I'd go on, but there is a difference between being cursed and being stupid.
The Celtics have been grabbing at straws for 15 years. KG is the biggest straw of them all.
But you don't get to make one good trade and become a great team. Sorry. Life is harder than that.
2007-2008 will be the best year for this crew. They'll win 48 games and lose in the second round. And the next two years... get worse. A lot worse. Especially when -- not if, when -- one or more of these guys gets hurt, and they turn on each other.
Now, Celtics Fan... how d'ya like them apples?
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Pissing on Green Corn Flakes: Why Kevin Garnett Will Not Make the Celtics Matter
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9 comment(s):
I disagree wholeheartedly.
Yes, the Celts mortgaged their franchise to KG... but they have about 3 years to get it done.
Hell, as you stated: Lebron got to the finals with pretty much no support... you figure KG+Pauly+Ray-Ray can't? Hell, you could play center, and I could play PG & they'd STILL have a shot!
I do agree with you that Rivers coaching a team that's expected to be a contender is a scary, scary thought. He was much more in his element when they were throwing games.
Rick Pitino wasn't evidence of a "curse", he was a bad f'n management decision.
Players getting unexpectedly hurt or dying tragically young, that's a "curse". The ownership hiring the wrong guy, that's "incompetence".
Malice -- you're assuming all 3 hold up and stay healthy. I'm not. The minutes they're going to have to play, plus the miles they have on their tires... it's not going to happen.
DD -- You could argue that they hired the wrong guy in Bias, too...
Fair enough... but the same could be said about pretty much any team that ranks as a contender in either conference. Take the top 3 players out of Dallas/San Antonio/Detroit/Chicago/Miami/Cleveland/Phoenix/Utah... LA Lakers (sorry, I had to)...
Couldn't arguing - this won't work if these guys all get hurt basically be used for every single scenario on every team ever?
The Spurs won't win if Duncan breaks down. The Lakers can't win if Kobe gets hurt. The Cavs will be done if Lebron shreds his knee and can't walk.
It is never a good argument to say - this wont work if they get hurt because they played so many minutes. Allen played 3/4 of a season last year, and Pierce played about the same so they'll be pretty well rested for this season.
You want to talk about injuries - lets talk about Al Jefferson and his never playing more then 71 games in a season (rookie year, 1 start).
There is a much better chance that PP, KG, Allen survive this season than Jefferson.
DJ - Fair point, but all of the teams you can mention have (a) a better bench / other players, and (b) a coach that doesn't eat paste.
Or, at least, not as much as Doc. He's dedicated.
Finally, don't mistake me for a Jeff fan; he's a defensive sieve who can't stay on the floor. The future the Celtics are mortgaging also sucks; if I were Ainge, I'd do this deal too. It just won't save him, or them.
Yours in hate,
DMtShooter
Oh, and for the record, I'm looking up at Spud Webb. So Malice, you're going down low, and I'll be playing the point.
Well, you managed to be 100% wrong, so I guess that's something.
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