Epic Carnival: An Alternate Theory for A-Rod's Struggles

Thursday, August 2, 2007

An Alternate Theory for A-Rod's Struggles

by Lozo, Why Don't We Get Drunk And Blog?

It's amazing. For three years, all you heard from Yankees fans and talking heads on ESPN was how Alex Rodriguez wasn't a true Yankee (whatever the hell that means) because he always did it when it didn't matter. Homers in 10-2 games, grounding into double plays in one-run games. The guy was a stat-padding choke artist.

Now this year, all of a sudden, it's all forgotten. He hit a homer off Joe Borowski in April, and suddenly they are clearing room for a shrine in Monument Park for the man. But tell me this -- what's the difference between this year in New York and any of his big years in Texas?

Nothing. Just like in Texas, A-Rod spent the first four months of this season playing on a team that was so far out of the playoffs that they were closer in the standings to the Kansas City Royals than the Boston Red Sox. And just like in Texas, without the pressure of being in a chase for a playoff spot, he put up monster numbers.

Now, A-Rod can't buy a hit. Everyone is just assuming it's because he's got 499 homers. He's pressing to hit No. 500 and all that. I believe A-Rod is pressing not because of the milestone (which isn't even really a milestone in this day and age) but because the Yankees are back in the thick of it.

On July 23, the Yankees got to within five games of the wild-card leading Indians, the closest New York had been to a playoff spot since May. What has A-Rod done since then?

July 24: 0-for-4
July 25: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
July 26: 0-for-2
July 27: 0-for-2
July 28: 0-for-4
July 29: 0-for-2
July 31: 0-for-5
Aug. 1: 0-for-4

So ever since the Yankees got to within five games of the wild card, A-Rod has one game where he's gotten a hit. Throw in that at-bat he had in the suspended Yankees-Orioles game, and since things have gotten tight, A-Rod is 2-for-29. I don't care what the milestone is. When you can't buy a hit against the likes of Jeremy Guthrie, Jorge de la Rosa and Jose Contreras, it's more than just a milestone causing you problems.

A-Rod has been known for a while now as a guy who doesn't come up big, a guy who can't come through in crunch time, a guy who tightens up when the game is on the line. What you have to ask yourself is, has he suddenly changed into this big-time clutch New York player? Or was he just someone who was far more relaxed playing for a team that was 8-10 games out of the playoffs for the first half of the season?

After he eventually does hit No. 500, I'd be willing to bet anything that he continues to struggle as long as a playoff berth remains within reach. Don't be surprised if an A-Rod resurgence coincides with either the Yankees or Indians absolutely going in the tank in the next few weeks.

9 comment(s):

Jack Cobra said...

I hear your pitch but i'm not buying it....the season is filled with peaks and valleys.

DMtShooter said...

I caught the Oriole game on Sunday. They spent most of the game throwing balls that bounced on their way to the plate to him. The best way to get a guy into a funk is to just give him nothing to hit for a while, then watch him press. Time-honored baseball tradition.

As for the man himself... I'm not a fan, per se, but the love he's going to get in 10 years when he hobbles out there to take Bonds out of the top spot in homers is going to boggle the imagination.

Look, the only reason this guy gets the heat he does is his contract. If he had stayed in his shoes, stayed away from Boras, and signed a run of the mill long-term deal to stay in Seattle, he'd have a much lower profile and more MVP awards.

He cashes the checks; he gets no sympathy from me. But before we bury him, anyone want to look up A-Rod's numbers when his Mariners were in a playoff hunt... or does the choking only happen in pinstripes?

Lozo said...

jack -- true, but a-rod's season has been one big peak until recently. i don't consider it a coincidence.

shooter -- do you eat pieces of shit for breakfast? sorry. but to answer your question, yes, pressure only happens with the yankees, because they are the most renowned sports franchise in the world, and it's the only team in baseball where winning is most important. that's what i hear, anyway.

Jack Cobra said...

You must have missed when he hit .235 in May and .206 for the month of July. He sandwiched those with a .355 april and a .402 May. I'd say that's pretty much the model of peaks and valleys, no?

Lozo said...

peaks and valleys for batting average, absolutely. he still had 12 homers and 35 RBI in those two months, which means his two worst months average out to a 36-homer, 105-RBI season. that's not much of a valley.

Jack Cobra said...

you do realize though that those were his worst months for....hr, rbi, avg, obp, slugging %, ops, runs scored, doubles, and hits?

That is a valley.

While his valleys may not be as low as a Jorge Fabregas valley, it's still a valley in comparison to the other months.

Lozo said...

it's 8-0 white sox now. any doubt he hits no. 500 today?

Sooze said...

I have my doubts.

He has hit 2 career homers off Garland though.

DMtShooter said...

Speaking as someone who clearly eats pieces of shit for breakfast, the Ligues were a proud moment for White Sox Fan.

Though I still like 'em better than Cubs Fan. Sorry, Jack.


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