Don't Believe the Hype: Others Will Win 300

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool

Tonight in Chicago, on a night that put the Cubs a game back in their bad division, saw the 2-to-4 week loss of main man Alfonso Soriano, and the triumphant return of Kerry Wood in the short relief set-up role that he probably should have had from the start of his career, all other stories were eclipsed by the end of the Bataan Death March that was Tom Glavine getting win #300.

Glavine becomes the 23rd pitcher in MLB history, and just the fifth lefty, to achieve bowling immortality. But rather than wonder how a man who spent decades nibbling at corners and winning despite low strikeout numbers could have possibly gotten this far, the prevailing ethos in the perpetually non-present sports media is this -- is he The Last?

First off, let's do the math. 23 in all of MLB history means that you get one of these once every five years. Since we've had three in this century (Maddux and Clemens being the others), that ratio has actually gone up recently, not down. But let's look at the others and consider.

Randy Johnson, 284. 16 wins would be about 1.5 years away with health for the still fairly effective Unit, especially if he comes back healthy from his latest injury. But he's really freaking old, back injuries rarely get better, and it's not like he's had just a few issues recently. I'd bet he eventually gets it, only because he's ornery and would be highly compensated to continue the chase, but it's not a sure thing.

Mike Mussina, 246. Moose will be 39 in December, and will likely still be 50 long wins away. Despite his eroding numbers over the past few years and touchy injury history, I still think he's an even-money bet to get there. How? Very simple -- go to the right NL team. Put on a Cardinals uniform, and I really think he rattles off 40 wins over three years and gets close enough to reach the finish line.

David Wells, 235. No chance. He's got a 5.18 ERA in San Diego, is old and fat, and doesn't strike anyone out anymore. Even if he goes for Team 10 in the off-season, it's hard to imagine him pitching to his '50s, which with his current win rate, he'd have to.

Jamie Moyer, 225. Well, it's not like age is robbing him of velocity. 44 years old and a surprising mainstay for the Phillies, but more seasons with under 10 wins than over for his career makes this a closed case. No chance.

Curt Schilling, 213. Bloggy McBloggermouth is still effective, has velocity and works for a team that scores in bunches, but he's 40 and hurt. He could surprise with a Ryan-esque late career surge, but the chance is probably less than 5% at this point.

Kenny Rogers, 210. Another very old guy -- 42 now -- that can't stay on the field. He's in the right park, with a good team, and has come back from the dead before. In 2001 with the Rangers, he was a 36 year old guy with 5-7 with a 6.19 ERA; that was 78 wins ago. If he wasn't known for being an ass to sports writers, he'd have a surprisingly good Hall of Fame resume, but it's hard to see him getting to 300.

Pedro Martinez, 206. A clear Hall of Famer thanks to his sub 3 ERA in an offensive era, and a whopping 114 games over .500. He's still 35, which means you have to keep him in consideration, and seems to be coming along nicely from his latest brush with death... but the injuries have just been relentless, and it's hard to imagine him doing this for another 10 years to get there. Still, a chance.

John Smoltz, 203. Three years as a dominant closer make him a little younger than most 40 year olds, but picking up 100 after your fortieth birthday means that some Satchel Paige-esque magic is going to have to happen here. Still, he's got a 3-run ERA and a 4-to-1 K/W ratio this year; of everyone on this list, he's pitching the best and is still a true ace. Maybe a 3 to 5% chance.

The rest: Andy Pettite is at 193 is 35; there's a chance, especially if he stays in New York and the team stays competitive. Tim Hudson is 32 and has 131; some very big years will need to happen to make up for some cheated years in Oakland, but his injury history isn't too bad, and he's the kind of guy you can imagine pitching for as long as they'll let him to get a record.

Roy Oswalt is 29 with 109. He'll need to get to 200 by 35 to have a chance, and the Astros haven't been helping that pace, but he could degrade for 5 years and still be above average, so there's a lot of runway here. Roy Halladay has 107 at 30; he's got the same story as Oswalt, with a worse injury history. CC Sabathia is 27 and has 95. It's hard to imagine a 290-pound guy holding up for 15 more years at 14 wins a year, but it's not impossible, especially if he gets religion and drops some pounds.

The point is... there are clear candidates on the horizon that could get there, and it's not as if 300 is going to stop being a story over the years. The candidacy of any single candidate is not overwhelming, but the field is deep, talented and motivated -- and with near-certain Hall of Fame induction for those that get over the line, it's hard to imagine that everyone is going to fall short.

Personally, I think Unit and/or Moose get there, we get one surprise from the big drama trio of McBloggermouth, Pedro and Smoltz, and one of the three lefties from the Sabathia/Oswalt/Pettite camp gets there. Which would give us three in the next 10 to 15 years, or more or less, the same ratio as always, and ample proof that the sky is not falling.