by Jack Cobra, Cobra Brigade
I was just about to write on a completely different MLB topic when I came across one of the best articles I've read in awhile. Jayson Stark of ESPN. com breaks down the who/what/where/when/why when it comes to the Minnesota Twins and their chances of re-signing Ace Johan Santana before he leaves via free agency next season. It's too good of an article not to mention as it touches upon so many different topics in MLB from free agency to how small market teams should strategize when it comes to the signing of free agents or the re-signing of their own players.
Johan Santana is probably the most dominant pitcher in MLB the past five seasons as he's gone 89-31 since 2003 while baffling hitters his fastball and disappearing change-up. He is what Pedro Martinez used to be. The winner of two Cy Young Awards already, Santana becomes a free agent after the 2008 Season and this offseason will be filled with speculation if the Twins do not re-sign him.
The Stark article is filled with tons of quotes from unnamed general managers around baseball all with their own opinions.....Here is mine....if the Twins do not re-sign Johan Santana they are going to struggle to sign anyone for a very long time. They have to keep in mind that at some point Joe Mauer is going to need to be re-signed and Joe Nathan is up for a new contract at the same time as Santana. If they don't re-sign Santana, the best pitcher in all of baseball, how can they say they are trying to win a World Series? How can they say they are trying to put the best team on the field?
If the Twins were to trade Santana it's not as if they are going to get fair market value for him. THEY CAN'T. There isn't a mix of prospects in all of baseball that would be equal to the value of Santana. If the Twins don't re-sign Santana, they are essentially screwing themselves and putting themselves in a position to struggle for years to come.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Johan the Barbarian Leaving Minnesota?
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5 comment(s):
The Twins are in a really tough spot. I won't argue that they can get equal value for Santana but teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets all could offer deep enough packages that the Twins would have to think about it. That's could and not would, because they might just wait to sign him on the open market.
Unless the Twins are going to radically change their payroll you'll be looking at Santana eating as much as a third of their payroll. Keeping him at the expense of Mauer, Nathan and/or Morneau doesn't make them a better bet for a title either.
Can Minnesotans handle losing Garnett and Santana in the same year?
If Garnett AND Santana left the bridges would start collapsing and the city would be set on fire....
While the Twins may not be able to get equal value for Johan simply in terms of quality of players, I think it would make sense for them to trade him either this offseason, or next July if they're not in the playoff race.
Santana is going to get over $20MM/yr, probably closer to $25MM. The Twins, with their current $64MM payroll, can't do that. What they can do is trade Johan for prospects that are close to the majors, but haven't accumulated any service time, so the have them under control for awhile. I would think that a couple top of the line prospects fitting into this category would be more valuable to Minnesota than a $25MM/yr ace.
Also, you have to take into consideration that in the first year of his new contract Johan will be 30, so you will be paying him over $20MM annually when he's 34-35, which is where that deal would really kill the Twins.
I'll tell you right now the Twins won't trade Johan this season or when he's on the verge of free agency.
This is why they've locked up players like Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer for the next few years already. The club is way past saying goodbye to Torri, which frees up a lot of money as well, not to mention the endless prospects they have down on the farm.
Big name trades involving lots of cash movement isn't generally how the Twins roll - they like to build from the ground up, which is why they've been seasoning players like Denard Span to eventually replace Hunter while Baker, Garza and Bonser have been up in the big leagues long enough to get the hang of their pitches.
Also, don't forget Liriano will be back next season.
Crap, I'm such a homer. I didn't admit KG was gone until it actually happened...
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