by Sooze, Babes Love Baseball
Jose Reyes is an animal.
Schooled by the Man of Steal himself, the sneaky, switch-hitting shortstop stole his 20th bag of August and 70th of the season Saturday night against the Dodgers in the top of the third, once again challenging a steady defensive catcher and his lefty starter.
Today's lesson in probability is brought to you once again, by the teacher you wish you had, Charlize Theron.
There are roughly 5 weeks left in the Mets' regular season -- that's 34 games. In the 127 games Reyes has played in thus far, he has enjoyed 44 single-steal contests, 10 double-steal games, and 2 in which he snagged three bases. He played in 70 games without a steal and has been busted 15 times in 85 attempts.
So, how many bags will the 24-year-old trickster swipe by the end of September? Will he hit the triple digits?
Since he is averaging 1.8 SBs per game, he theoretically could end the season with 131. Not likely, but Ms. Theron is betting he hits 100.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Jose Reyes: Total Disregard For the Pick-Off Attempt
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3 comment(s):
I just spent five minutes of my life trying to figure out what you meant by "averaging 1.8 SBs per game"...I think times on base. Although it would be hard to get a steal after a HR, and somewhat rare after a triple.
If the Mets pull away from the Braves and Phillies with a couple weeks left, he might decide to steal every time he gets a chance, regardless of opportunity. Short of that, though, I doubt he'll get to 100- he's averaged .55 SB/game, and would need to average .86 the rest of the way.
Ms Theron flipped the numbers in her division. Jose is averaging 1 stolen base in every 1.8 games, not 1.8SB/game. So with 34 games left, he's on pace for roughly 19 more SBs, which would put him just short of 90 for the season.
Obviously Ms. Theron doesn't know a damn thing about math.
...p.s. this post was meant to be nothing but pure exaggeration, even though Mr. Reyes is pretty amazing. Sadly, not amazing enough to steal 61 more bases.
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