NFL Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars

by Davey, Blown Coverage

It's no secret that I bleed Dolphin teal and I'm not ashamed of how that sounds, even if John Amaechi thinks that it's a bit too fruity. So seeing that Sanchez is already going to take care of the Dolphins season preview, I might as well jump on another Florida team. The Jacksonville Jags.

The 2006 Jacksonville Jags were as inconsistent as a team can get. The offense finished 9th in the NFL in total points scored, passed the 30-point mark in 5 games yet they lost twice to Houston while scoring 7 and 10 points respectively in both losses.

The defense wasn't any better. The unit finished 4th in the league in points allowed, pitched shutouts against the Jets and Steelers, dominated the Giants and Eagles yet allowed at least 24 points in 7 of their games. It's inconsistency like that that leads you to a mediocre 8-8 finish.

• They already have 2 out of 3.

There's that saying that great defense and a solid running game wins you championships and if that's the case, the Jags should be feeling pretty good right about now. The Jags have one of the league's toughest and hardest hitting defenses to go along with a running game that will punch you in the ovaries.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor (if Taylor can stay healthy) form a duo that no defense wants to go up against and their humiliation of Indy in week 14 last season is a good example why.

The defense had to deal with injuries to Marcus Stroud, Mike Peterson and Donovan Darius last season and that was a big reason for the inconsistent play. When healthy, it's a unit you don't want to mess with. Marcus Stroud and John Henderson form the best run-stuffing combo up the middle. Mike Peterson anchors the linebackers while Rasheen Mathis has developed into one of the best defensive backs in the league.

Going into the draft, everyone knew that the Jags needed help at safety, depth at linebacker and a pass rusher for their defensive line. They got Reggie Nelson, one of the best safeties in the draft, who's role becomes even bigger now with the departure of Donovan Darius. They also added depth at linebacker with Justin Durant and Brian Smith but the unit still lacks a good pass rush from the edges

• Stating the very obvious. The passing game needs to step up.

I don't know what I can say about Byron Leftwich and these receivers that has not been said already. Leftwich and David Garrard were both mediocre at best last season with neither guy surpassing 2000 yards while both combined for just 17 Td's and 14 interceptions.

The group of first-round receivers didn't do much better either. Reggie Williams led the team with 52 receptions. Matt Jones led the team with 642 receiving yards and both guys tied for the team lead with 4 Td's. Numbers like that don't scare anyone. Even Duke's football team could cover this group.

There's a new offensive coordinator (Dirk Koetter) in town and things are supposedly very rosy between him and Leftwich but if that's going to lead improved production from this group, I really don't know. As of right now, the receiving depth chart has Earnest Wilford at # 1, Dennis Northcutt # 2, Charles Sharon # 3 and Matt Jones at 4. The fact that Reggie Williams ain't in the top 4 does not bode very well for him.

Marcedes Lewis figures to play a big part in the offense this season and some see him breaking out. If Leftwich can't connect regularly with his receivers, look for him to go plenty in Lewis' direction.

• Fantasy Impact

The first Jaguar you should be selecting is MJD. I lucked into Jones-Drew last season and he brought me nothing but pure joy while scoring 16 total TD's (13 on the ground, 2 receiving and 1 returning). Some are expecting a drop-off for him this season but if you have a chance of getting him, don't pass it up. Fred Taylor will always be an injury concern but if you already set at running back, it would be nice to add Taylor for the depth. Just don't make him your number 1 option.

Marcedes Lewis is also an intriguing option at tight end as some see him breaking out this year. The defense is a top 5 defense and everyone else in the passing game should be avoided. If you are tempted to select Matt Jones or Reggie Williams thinking that this will be the year where to put it together...you should be impaled.

• Schedule

The Jags will be playing the NFC South and the AFC West along with their usual opponents from the AFC South. They'll have tough road games at Denver, at New Orleans, at Indy and at Pittsburgh. The tough home games are against Indy, San Diego and Carolina.

Tennessee, Atlanta, Oakland, Houston, Tampa and KC are teams that I expect to struggle and teams that the Jags should beat.

• Expectations

I think the Jags are at worst a 9-7 team and 12-4 at best. The defense and the running game will be there but the passing game and the play of the quarterback will decide if this will be mediocre again or if they'll be challenging Indy for that AFC South title.

Byron Leftwich looked pretty good in the team's preseason opener in Miami even though he did get pressured a lot. The offensive line didn't look very great but that's understandable considering that it was their first game action of the season.

Put a gun to my head and make me give a prediction and I'll say that the Jags will finish 11-5 and make the playoffs behind some improved play from Leftwich.

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