NFL Preview: New York Jets

by JA, The Feed

Going into the 1998 season the New York Jets weren’t on many shortlists for the AFC Championship game. Even though they’d picked up Curtis Martin in a trade, they still had Glenn Foley as the starting quarterback, a suspect defense and a history that wasn’t synonymous with success. But somehow it all came together. After starting 0-2, Bill Parcells replaced Foley with Vinny Testaverde and moved Bryan Cox, signed off a golf course during training camp, into the starting lineup in place of the injured Marvin Jones. They were the MVPs of their respective units, Martin was as good as advertised and Keyshawn Johnson, Mo Lewis and Kevin Mawae turned in Pro Bowl-type seasons. The team would go 12-2 for the rest of the regular season and beat the Jaguars 34-24 to earn a trip to Denver against the defending Super Bowl champs. They led that game 3-0 at the half before it all came apart thanks to six turnovers.

Hopes were high going into the 1999 season. The core players returned from the previous season and free agents Eric Green and Steve Atwater were seen as veteran additions that would help the Jets make their return to the big game after three decades on the sidelines. Alas, Testaverde didn’t make it through the first half of the first game before tearing his Achilles. That left Rick Mirer to provide more evidence that he wasn’t a good NFL quarterback. To add to the misery, Green and Atwater flopped and the team started 1-6 before Ray Lucas took over at quarterback and led the team back to a .500 record by season’s end. That wasn’t enough to keep Bill Parcells from “retiring” after the season ended. Bill Belichick was tabbed to take over, you know how that went down, and this Jets fan learned his lesson about having high hopes for the Jets before the season starts.

Sadly the lesson didn’t keep. The 2004 season ended on a bad note, two Doug Brien missed field goals against Pittsburgh in the second round of the playoffs, but all the pieces were in place for a banner 2005. Chad Pennington, Curtis Martin, John Abraham, Shaun Ellis, Jonathan Vilma and Erik Coleman all returned with new additions Ty Law and Laveranues Coles poised to help boost the team to the next level. You can probably remember what happened. The Chiefs sliced through them like a knife through melted butter for two quick touchdowns in game one, an ominous portent for the season. Soon after Pennington blew out his shoulder and then Martin’s knee gave out and ended his career. On defense, Ellis stopped rushing the passer and Law was used up adding up to a 4-12 and an end to the Herman Edwards/Terry Bradway regime.

That meant expectations were as low as could be entering last season. Abraham was traded, Mawae was released, Kevan Barlow wasn’t an inspiring choice as the new tailback and new coach Eric Mangini came with a great pedigree but no head coaching experience. He and new GM Mike Tannenbaum had a plan to rebuild the team, starting with the selection of two starting offensive linemen, D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, in the first round and the acquisition of two quarterbacks, Patrick Ramsey and second-rounder Kellen Clemens, to push the rehabbed Pennington. None of those plans pointed to much immediate success and no one was predicting the playoffs even with a weak schedule.

But, once again, the Jets defied all expectations. They beat bad teams from Tennessee, Detroit and Miami while losing heartbreakers to the Colts and Patriots in the early going to earn respect as a team that wouldn’t say die. They also got blown out by the Jags and lost to the Browns, games that seemed to confirm that they weren’t heading anywhere good in the short term. They were 4-4 at the halfway point with the Patriots looming in the first game of the second half and all signs pointed to another losing season, albeit one with positive growth. 60 minutes later that changed. After seven straight losses to the Pats, the Jets finally broke through thanks to great performances by two Jets who had breakout years and one who came back with a vengeance. Kerry Rhodes recovered a key early fumble and Jerricho Cotchery scored the winning touchdown on a toss from the resurgent Pennington, leading the Jets to a 17-14 win and spurring a 6-2 second half that resulted in a playoff bid. A blowout loss to those Patriots reminded everyone just how much the Jets outperformed their meager beginnings but the season left nothing but a good taste in the mouth of fans, players and coaches.

And that’s the problem as we prognosticate the 2007 season. Was last year the first throes of a rising power or was it just the latest inflation of the hope balloon that will be dashed with a swift pinprick? My dreams have been dashed too many times to surrender myself to the nagging feelings I have that things are looking pretty good for the Jets this season. Thomas Jones is a massive upgrade over the departed Barlow while keeping Leon Washington in position to be a nifty change-of-pace, third-down threat. Ferguson and Mangold will only be better in their second season on the offensive line. It doesn’t look like Pete Kendall will remain with the team for the season, although it’s looked that way for months with no change in status, but the offensive line should be able to roll on without him if the sophomores improve.

Coles and Cotchery give Pennington a pair of dynamic targets at the wideouts. Even if he can’t throw a spiral or more than 12 yards on the fly, those two can turn a nothing out into something special. Pennington’s intelligence made Brian Schottenheimer, another boy genius, look good calling the plays. His gameplans are predicated on misdirection and making the most of what the defense provides, two things Pennington excels at and two reasons to believe that they can keep things going this season. Brad Smith, a Kordell Stewart Slash-type wideout/running back/quarterback, should also play a role in implementing the varied offensive looks that made the Jets so successful a year ago. The offense, in other words, looks pretty tight.

Justin Miller, the team’s lone Pro Bowler last year, is back to change games with his return skills and the rest of the special teams look tasty as well. Mike Nugent has a strong, accurate leg on field goals and Ben Graham, the Australian wonder, is adept at keeping the opposition pinned deep in their own end. Matt Chatham and Brad Kassell are supreme wedgebusters in addition to backing up the linebacking corps. Mangini made several wise choices in his first season as coach but none may have been wiser than keeping Mike Westhoff as the special teams coordinator. On teams that play games with as little margin for error as the Jets, the kicking game is crucial and Westhoff’s units were nonpareil last year.

With two units that look that strong, why am I not throwing caution to the wind and predicting amazing things for these Jets? The defense scares the bejeebus out of me. They couldn’t stop the run with any consistency last season nor could they offer sustained pass coverage and things don’t look much different this time around, I’m afraid. They signed several players to shore up the defensive line but Kenyon Coleman is a career reserve while Michael Haynes and Andre Wadsworth are first-round busts trying to salvage their careers. Wadsworth, who may also play outside linebacker, has had serious injuries to boot and hasn’t played a down in the NFL since 2000. Shaun Ellis remains solid but Dwayne Robertson has never made good on his potential after going fourth overall in 2003. Bryan Thomas ably replaced Abraham as an edge pass rusher in the revamped defense but remains a poor defender against the run. David Harris, the second-round pick, had a great career at Michigan but Vilma still looks miscast inside in the 3-4 and Eric Barton and Victor Hobson simply don’t make enough plays for a linebacker-driven defense.

The secondary was looking a lot better in April when the Jets traded up to get Darrelle Revis of Pittsburgh in the first round. He’s a stout corner and fantastic punt returner but they can’t seem to get him signed which increases the possibility of a return engagement for David Barrett and Andre Dyson at the corners when the season starts. That’s not going to work any better this time around than it did last year when teams completed nearly 60% of their passes against Gang Green. Obviously the pass rush is a factor in that number but we’ve already aired our grievances about that facet of the defense. Thankfully the Jets have two fine safeties in Rhodes and Coleman to cover for some of the deficiencies in front of them.

We’ll find out an awful lot about this team in the first two weeks. They host the Patriots and visit the Ravens in the first two weeks of a schedule that’s much more difficult than the one they rode to the playoffs last year. I’m most concerned about the defense, which looks quite average, but an injury to Pennington would be the surest way to sink what the Jets are trying to do this season. Clemens isn’t ready and Marques Tuiasosopo is nothing more than a scout teamer. Any time I start envisioning a deep run I think back to 1999 and 2005 and those injured quarterbacks and reel myself back in when I realize how tenuous things still are for a Jets team that’s not quite ready for the bright lights.

Under the best of circumstances duplicating last year’s 10-6 record will be difficult. Things rarely break so well two years in a row for the Jets, of course, so there’s no reason to expect the best. A few breaks will go against the boys this season and they’ll go 8-8, missing the playoffs and lowering expectations heading into 2008. You know what that means though…

VIEW OTHER TEAM PREVIEWS