Not So Magnificient 7: Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool

Since my fantasy football drafts are over, it's time to break with tradition and give you, the Epic Carnival reader, a column that you may actually find useful. Share and enjoy, but remember -- this advice is worth exactly what you paid for it.

7) Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins. Positive honks have waved new coach Cam Cameron's Tomlinson Experience in San Diego around, under the idea that he's got a magic wand. Meanwhile, Brown's been returning kickoffs and getting vultured by Charger retread Jesse Chatman.

This isn't a case of Cameron preaching tough love -- this is where the new coach runs off someone from the previous regime who's pissed him off. Think Julius Jones getting cuckolded by Marion Barber, only on a team that won't score as much. Finally, there's this: the Dolphin schedule in week 14 to 16 is ruinous. So after he doesn't get you to the playoffs, Brown will sink you in them.

Brown's upside is 1000 yards and six touchdowns, which is to say, he's a 4th to 5th round pick that's going about 3 rounds too early. Avoid.

6) Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills. I love rookies. Can't get enough of 'em. But not in the second round, and not when they've spent the preseason looking like they might lose the job from lack of performance. Lynch is looking a lot more like JJ Arrington than the second coming of Thurman Thomas... or even Willis McGahee.

I'd take him over Jamal Lewis, which is to say he's a fine pick in the late 3rd, early 4th -- but not in the late 2nd, which is where I've seen him go.

5) Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions. The sleeper for many has become dangerously overrated, under the dubious thought process that says that the Detroit Lions will be the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf. Yes, the WRs are cherry, and the RB depth is better with the imports of Tatum Bell and TJ Duckett. But a committee solution at running back does not equal Marshall Faulk, the offensive line doesn't exactly have an Orlando Pace, and the defense won't exactly give them a short field to work with too often, either.

Kitna is an interesting back-up gamble, and will have weeks when he performs at a top 6 level, especially once the Lions are behind and the game enters Chuck and Duck Mode. But the weeks that he isn't good, he's really not good, and it's not like he's never lost a job for failing to protect the football. You'd be safer with a number of other options (Romo, Hasselbeck, Cutler, Rivers) that will go after him, and probably better, too.

4) Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots. Oh, reputations die hard. Randy's just undermotivated. He just doesn't have a QB to get him the ball. He just needs to care. Brady's never had a weapon like this. The speed. The height. The mooning of Packer Fan. It's Juvenation Time, and Bill Simmons is pinching himself (never mind where) with delight.

Only one problem -- it's Rady Moss. Tom Brady has never had a weapon that... quits on plays, takes himself out of the lineup for niggling injuries, begs for the ball, isn't in shape and makes crucial mistakes. (OK, that last one, he's had. Cue the Reche Caldwell highlight reel.)

And even if Moss does enter Juvenation, Brady will not, especially in a Bellichek system, throw the ball in his direction 15 to 20 times a game. He's going to be far too interested in keeping Stallworth, Welker, Watson and the host of other options on staff interested.

Finally, there's this: Moss is 30. He hasn't really been ownable for several years. If it works out in New England, he'll impress with his team attitude, and won't have numbers, because it will be in New England's best interests to limit his stats and keep him fresh for the playoffs. Besides, a Moss with 1000 yards and 8 TDs is a heck of a lot easier to sign than one with 1400 and 12.

Of course, that's all drinking the happy drink. If he decides that life isn't up to his standards... it's the Patriots. They ran off Deion Branch. They'll run off Moss without a second thought.

There are better -- much better -- bets on the board where he's being drafted, so let someone else see snake eyes on this dice roll. Let a Masshole draft him in the third; he belongs in the 5th or 6th.

3) Jeremy Shockey, TE, NY Giants. A funny thing happens with mouthy players that annoy a lot of people; they get enough brand name recognition that they go too early in drafts. Shockey's got ability, and the times when he shows it will make any fantasy owner think about him. He's great at running through a tackle of a smaller man. The Giants' schedule is also a lot easier than last year, so the Blue Offense will be a good source for numbers.

But he (a) can't stay healthy, (b) runs the risk of the coaching staff freezing him out after he throws them under the bus to the press, and (c) will be compromised for touches this year because the Giants suddenly have some interesting options in the deeper WR core. Plus, Eli Manning is fond of keeping Amani Toomer happy, and the ancient one is back (for now).

It all adds up to ordinary TE numbers for a Tier 2 / Tier 3 kind of TE. He'll go in the top 3 of the position in most drafts, especially on the East Coast.

2) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars. Probably the single greatest point of difference on people's draft boards this year. Drew's owners last year feel emotionally invested in the little speed merchant that did, and with the perpetually questionable Fred Taylor never a factor in the red zone, expect similar or better this year.

But as Hank at Winning the Turnover Battle has pointed out, Jones-Drew is going to have to be damned near miraculous to duplicate last year's numbers, due to Greg Jones horning in on his goal line touches. Return touchdowns are also a fluky thing in the NFL; it's rare for a player to pull off the same home runs in subsequent years, if for no other reason than teams get scared of kicking the ball to them at all (see last year's Super Bowl, when the Colts took Devin Hester out of the game). The Jags also signed Fred Taylor for a reason; this is a committee, folks, and you don't draft committee members in the second round.

In real life, Jones-Drew is terrific, and if you're in a keeper league, you have to like his chances of giving you value for years to come, especially if/when Taylor goes down. But in a regular draft, he's a 3rd to 4th round value that most people are taking about 25 picks too soon.

1) Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans. Owners still pining over the loss of Mike Vick to his own criminal empire are gravitating toward Young, who promises to deliver a similar dose of unconventional value with his arm/leg mix. On a surprisingly competitive Titans team last year, he certainly provided value... but this year, with film to study, no Travis Henry to provide a marginal RB threat, and a collection of wideouts that's nearly as bad as what's in Jacksonville (what is it with the AFC South -- only the Colts get to have more than one decent WR?), I'm just not feeling it. When your best passing threat are a pair of big tight ends that aren't named Gates, this isn't a good situation to be a sophomore QB.

Plus, there's the whole cover jinx. As in, his receivers are easy to cover, which is a definite jinx.

Feel free to post your own in the comments. (I'd have probably included Fat Ced Benson on this list, but as I've already drafted him in two leagues, I would then have to start punching myself, and would much rather wait for the regular season to do that.)