by Simon, SimonOnSports
I know I'm going to get crucified for this by everyone else who plays fantasy football but I'm sick and tired of the proclamations that if you don't draft 2 running backs in the first two rounds you are effectively screwed. Unless a player falls into your lap in round two, I personally believe you are almost stupid to waste your 2nd round pick on a running back.
Here's my main problem with this philosophy. The guys you draft in the second round are not much better than those you can snatch up in the latter rounds. Travis Henry? You're banking on the Bronco's thing. Ronnie Brown? You're hoping for a breakout which hasn't happened yet. Thomas Jones, your hoping for big time production with a new team who has an inexperienced O-Line. They all have major question marks.
Meanwhile players like Lamont Jordan and Jamal Lewis coming off miserable seasons have slightly more question marks but can be had 50+ picks later. If you wait and get those guys than that allows you to get a Marvin Harrison or Carson Palmer or Torry Holt. Someone that puts up consistent numbers every season and barring serious injury won't douche over your team.
I'll throw out my draft last season for instance. The leagues I am typically in have much larger roster sizes and I had the ability to start two RB and two WR/RB flexes. Here's my philosophy always target starting running backs, meaning the ones that you can logically suggest will get almost all of the carries for a specific squad. Therefore last season I was high on Fast Willy who I thought was going to have a breakout year and with the absence of The Bus get almost all the carries. The Round? Early 4th. Next I was sky high on Frank Gore after the 49ers practically announced he was getting every carry. The Round? 7th. Finally I figured I would just take a flier with Fred Taylor because he was the starter and maybe he would stay healthy. The Round? 11th. In addition mid season I jumped on the waiver wire and snatched up Ladell Betts. So in essence after the middle of the season I had to bench a 1000 yard rusher every week, and I did not have to spend a 2nd or 3rd round choice to do so.
Just look at last years draft. If you took guys that just flat out didn't perform like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Lamont Jordan, Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee, etc. in the first or 2nd round you were effectively throwing away your most valuable picks and, barring a few miracle picks ala Drew Brees, Gore or Jones-Drew, the entire season. Additionally you were killed if you threw away your first rounders on running backs that got injured like Alexander and Portis. And yet people are willing to do the same thing this year, and they will do it every year under the false assumptions that if you don't get two running backs right away you are screwed. Personally I'll wait a few rounds for guys with major question marks rather than spit away my 2nd round pick.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
The Two Running Back Fantasy Myth
Posted at 2:35 PM ET
Similar Topics: fantasy football, fantasy sports, Simon, sports
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8 comment(s):
I agree that it isn't always a must to take RBs 1-2. If you are picking anywhere near the turn of the 2nd and 3rd round, it is likely that you can pick up that stud WR or a QB like Palmer or Brady in the 2nd and still get the exact same value of RB in the start of the 3rd round.
I do however disagree with your reasoning, mainly because it is based upon your personal league experience. From the sounds of it your league size must be very small, or the people drafting very bad, if Willie Parker went in the 4th round in your draft. (He was the 12th best fantasy back the year before [2005]...how does he last till the 4th?) Essentially your logic in not taking two RBs high is that either 1.) other people in your league will miss good RBs until the 4th round (Parker) 2.) You can hit a good sleeper (Gore) or 3.) A player that was injured rebounds better than expected (Taylor). It is cool for you that people in your league passed on Parker, you hit a sleeper in Gore, and Taylor stayed on the field. You cannot however, reasonably advise people to skip a 2nd RB till later rounds on that principle. If you look at the fantasy numbers from the past three years, there is BIG drop off in RB points after about #20. In theory, in a 10-12 team league most all of those top twenty guys will be gone after the first two rounds. Now, every year there are sleepers and rookies that bust out, and your strategy would essentially require you to be able to hit on at least two sleepers in the later rounds. If you miss? Your season is done. Plain and simple. The surest and best way to draft is to take RBs 1-2, and at worst take 2 in the first three rounds. WRs are extremely replaceable, just look at the miniscule difference in the 20th and 50th ranked WRs from last year. It is far, FAR easier to get a good WR in the later rounds than a good RB.
10 team league and to be fair I had either the 9th or swing pick.
So it was essentially a back end 3rd round pick.
I have to also say that I play in leagues that give points to receptions, atleast a fraction of points.
You bring up the top 20 running backs and fall of point, which is a little overblown, but you do not mention that the guys drafted in the top 2 rounds dont always finish there.
Last season Jones-Drew, Chester Taylor, Addai, Betts, MB III, Gore, Duece, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Travis Henry, Parker, and Thomas Jones were in the top 20. The vast majority of whom if not all of them in some leagues didn't go in the first 2 rounds.
Meanwhile Cadillac, Jordan, Portis, Alexander, McGahee, Dillon and in some cases Julius Jones all did and finished well out of the top 20.
Meanwhile out of the prime people to take in the 2nd round last year (Smith, Ocho Cinco, Tory Holt, Harrison, TO, Fitz) only Fitz finished outside of the top 10 for receivers. Their is less risk in taking a #1 stud wideout than taking a RB with massive questions when you can just wait for longer for one with similar question marks.
In essence I think that you should almost certainly use your top pick on a RB, but if your at the 2nd half or tail-end of the 2nd round it's stupid to take a 2nd tier running back when you can get a top flight wideout.
Again, I would argue that your particular league experience has skewed your logic. The fact that you play in a league that rewards points for receptions makes WRs far more valuable than in a standard league, thereby making your point about not going RB-RB far more viable for your league. The vast majority of fantasy players do not play PPR leagues however, and for those players it is almost essential to go RB-RB, or at least 2 in the first three rounds. Writing a post saying "Picking RBs in the first two rounds is stupid" without specifying that you are talking about a PPR league is the same as writing a post saying "Reggie Bush and Brian Westbrook should be top 5 picks" without saying only in PPR leagues. In normal fantasy leagues RBs dwarf WRs in importance.
OK, not to pick on you but...
"Meanwhile Cadillac, Jordan, Portis, Alexander, McGahee, Dillon and in some cases Julius Jones all did and finished well out of the top 20. "
Using standard scoring McGahee was 24th and Jones was 25th. Not exactly "well out of the top 20". And Alexander and Portis still finished 27th and 31st respectively in spite of being injured for LARGE amounts of the season. Also...
"Last season Jones-Drew, Chester Taylor, Addai, Betts, MB III, Gore, Duece, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Travis Henry, Parker, and Thomas Jones were in the top 20. The vast majority of whom if not all of them in some leagues didn't go in the first 2 rounds."
In later drafts (after it was announced he was starting full time) Gore was sneaking into the late 2nd last year. Deuce, Henry, Parker, and Jones were all fringe late 2nd/ 3rd round picks, and Chester Taylor was a lock 2nd round pick.
Point being, people draft RBs early because it works. That is why a guy that picked LT & Chester Taylor with his first two picks last year would destroy the guy that picked Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison nine times out of ten.
"there is BIG drop off in RB points after about #20"
So finishing 24th in your estimation is massively different than 20th. The big dropoff in RBs is after the top 5. When a steady decline starts to go down.
We'll use these standard categories to flip the analysis then...
Passing Touchdowns (6)
Interceptions (-2)
Rushing Yards (20 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Reception Yards (20 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
Return Touchdowns (6)
2-Point Conversions (2)
Fumbles Lost (-2)
No PPR
If you want to limit this to standard leagues. The difference between LJ and Parker was 40 points. That's where the dropoff was.
Betts finished at 20 with 83. Brandon Jacobs finished at 30 with 68 points.
Chris Henry Finished at 20 with 80 and Mark Clayton at 30 with 69.
The difference between wideouts and RBs is that their are more scrub WRs to fill your last spot to go around. However their is a major difference between top flight WRs and middle of the pack WRs.
Injuries should be considered into the equation as Running Backs are much more prone to missing games than Receivers. So along with the coinciding risks of taking players in the second round theirs a better chance your player separates his shoulder it misses significant time.
Beating the person 9 times out of 10 is such a blanket vague and meaningless statement. LT is never going to be around when you should draft Peyton Manning. The top 3 picks are a must to go with running back. But Manning put up 60+ more points than Drew Brees, the #2 QB, last year, in a standard league. And that's a typical yearly occurrence. That dropoff is larger than the LJ to Parker dropoff.
In addition he never gets hurt, unlike many RBs and neither does Harrison. I could say that 9 times out of ten if you draft Manning and Harrison you will make the playoffs cause your best players will stay healthy all season long and be guaranteed to finish at the top 5 of their position. While you can't guarantee that Travis Henry or Thomas Jones or Ronnie Brown are even going to finish in that immortal top 20 running back class.
The key to fantasy football is getting consistent performers with your top picks and making risk picks in the 2nd half that could make splashes.
So ya I'd much rather wait til the 5th round for Peterson or 7th for Lewis or 8th for Jordan and end up with a topflight wideout than 2nd than pray that Travis Henry is good this season.
The main issue with picking a RB in the 2nd round is that half of them end up busting.
Simon buddy...you're wrong. First off, it shows you don't really play fantasy football much if you think 20 yds per point is "standard". In both Yahoo and ESPN the default scoring is 10 yds per point. Most people use Yahoo and ESPN, and use the default scoring.
As for those numbers you threw out...weird. As for the 20-30 split that you outlined, Betts finished 11th with 170 points in standard leagues and Jacobs finished 30th at 98 points. Why the difference? Because the scoring you outlined above devalues yardage, thereby making touchdown vultures more valuable, which then indeed does make it easier to grab a TD vulture later than the 2nd round. In standard leagues the 20 RB (Edge) had 155 points as compared to Jacobs 98. 57 points IS a big dropoff. By the way, the dropoff from 20-30 among WRs was 135-111. Hm..57 points...24 points...hm...
Also, you can't draft out of fear of injuries. You can devalue specific players that are injury prone (Brian Westbrook) but not the entire position. Otherwise Carson Palmer and Donovan McNabb would cause people not to draft QBs. Just silly.
Ok I've garnered access to the "default" version.
As for your #s first off Edge finished 21st and Dillon was 20th with 159. Secondly, Mike Bell finished 30th with 122 and it was a steady drop off from 20 to 30, nothing steep. Jacobs was 37th on the list. So pretty much every stat you put up there was well, not correct.
36 Running backs finished over 100, 35 WRs finished over 100. However in a 10 person league, that's more than enough bench RBs for all teams.
But while we're on the topic of Betts, what round did he go in again?
In general the top 8 RBs in a 10 team league will go in the first round if not the top 9. The 10th running back last season was Rudy Johnson who put up 177, meanwhile Harrison put up 199. The difference between Harrison and #11 was 44 points. The difference between Johnson and and three-some tied at 20 is 17.
In addition a comparison between running backs finishing 10-20 and receivers 1-10 show that their points created are almost identical with WRs having much less risk attached.
The main point you are completely ignoring is the fact that a low estimate would be around 1/3 of the running backs after the typical superb top 4 or 5 bust out and do nothing substantial. While the top WRs do not.
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