NFL Preview: Carolina Panthers

by The Prophet, ProphetFighting

The Carolina Panthers are a tough team to figure. They were certainly better on paper than last year's 8-8 finish showed, and I expect them to return to their winning ways this year. I've got them penciled in to win the NFC South almost by default over the Vick-less Falcons, the defense-less Saints and the hap-less Bucs. A return to the playoffs is almost a foregone conclusion, but there are serious questions about how good they'll be once they get there.

Much of the trouble last year was due to injuries in the trenches and a sub-par year by QB Jake Delhomme, who seemed incapable of making a good decision with the ball when circumstances necessitated. The OL injury bug manifested itself in the Panthers' shoddy rushing game, which finished 24th overall. You don't have to be John Madden to realize that a mistake prone QB and a unproductive run game isn't going to get you very far. The defense was solid (7th overall in the NFL) but didn't seem as fearsome as in years past.

Most of the changes in the off season took place on the offensive side of the ball. Human punching bag David Carr was brought in to not only serve as an insurance policy at QB, but to put a little fire to the feet of Delhomme. Offensive coordinator Dan Henning was thrown under the bus after the season, and the Panthers appear to have upgraded themselves there with the hiring of Jeff Davidson. Davidson was the OL and TE coach for New England from 1997 to 2004 before serving in a variety of coaching roles with Cleveland. He's been charged primarily with improving upon the Panthers' pitiful run production, and has changed the team's blocking scheme from a man block to a zone block setup. It might take a few games to get everyone on the same page, but there's really nowhere for the run game to go but up.

Davidison isn't enamored with either of his options at running back. DeShawn Foster and DeAngelo Williams are serviceable enough, but neither is the type of power back he covets for his "run first" offensive scheme. Many of my local cronies who follow the team closely were surprised that Corey Dillon wasn't brought in to shore up the RB corps, but according to the former Bengal/Patriot he's retired from football. In any case, don't be surprised to see Carolina try to do something here.

Establishing some semblance of a run game is crucial for the Panthers as it opens things up for their top offensive weapon, WR Steve Smith. Smith is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, so as long as the Panthers' offense is multi-dimensional enough to keep opposing defenses honest he's going to get the job done and then some. Smith is 100% to start the season after being slowed early last year by hamstring injuries. Some locals here in the Carolinas were concerned about Smith's lack of production and playing time during the preseason. We call those people "idiots", as Coach John Fox wasn't about to watch his top playmaker riding on a cart due to an injury suffered when the games don't count.

Expected to provide immediate help for Smith is another former USC Trojan, rookie Dwayne Jarrett. The Panthers were big enough on Jarrett that they sent Keyshawn Johnson packing in the off season. Also expected to see playing time is serviceable Keary Colbert. Colbert lacks Jarrett's size and sheer athleticism, but has good hands and receives praise all around for his attitude and professionalism. Colbert will likely start the season as the #2 receiver, with Drew Carter at #3 but expect to see Jarrett in the mix sooner rather than later.

So the Panthers have plenty of offensive talent to build around, and if Davidson can get some improvement out of the OL to help the running game they should be productive enough to get the team back over .500. Any improvement here can only serve to help the defense, which has been the backbone of this team dating back to their early days as an expansion franchise. While many teams would be pleased with a 7th rated total defense, most close to the Panthers viewed last year's stop unit as having had an off year. While the Panthers were ranked #4 in passing defense their #11 rated rushing defense is the area needing improvement as they allowed opposing offenses nearly 4 yards a carry.

Despite their decent statistical performance last year where the defense's performance really dropped off was in forcing turnovers. In 2004 and 2005 the Panthers forced a total of 80 turnovers. Last year they only managed 22 and if they're going to regain their status as a top teir team they really need to get more impact plays out of the defense.

The Panthers defense is built around DE Julius Peppers, who may be not only the best in the NFL at his position but the most intimidating defensive player period. Unfortunately, with injuries along the defensive line Peppers frequently had to drag two or three blockers along with him on his way to the QB. MLB Dan Morgan is very good, but injury prone. The Panthers drafted Jon Beason out of Miami-FL to give them some depth at the position. Aside from the dominant Peppers there are a lot of unknown variables on the defensive side of the ball, and you may see some personnel moves here as the season progresses. Still, I expect the Panthers defense to be as good as last year and if some rookies flourish as hoped they could return to their dominant form.

As any football geek will tell you, special teams play is crucial to success in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Panthers are an enigma here as well. The kicking game is in good shape with dependable PK John Kasey and punter Jason Baker. On the other hand, the team finished dead last in kickoff and punt return average.

The Panthers are an intriguing team, a combination of solid veteran players and a top notch coaching staff tempered by many question marks--big and small--on both sides of the ball. If they can get some of their bad luck from last year turning in their favor, if the defense becomes more opportunistic in forcing turnovers, if they can get some improvement in their coverage and return teams and if Davidson's schemes can squeeze some more productivity out of their rushing game they have the potential of going deep in the playoffs. If not, they could have another 8-8 season. The franchise is too well run top to bottom for the wheels to come off completely, but aside from that any result between mediocrity and a deep playoff run is well within the realm of possibility.

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