AGAINST THE SPREAD: TAKE THE PATRIOTS AND THE POINTS

by DCScrap, Our Book of Scrap

Looks like even the bookmakers are having a hard time figuring out what to do with New England. Early in the week they had the Pats as the same point favorite over the Redskins (who are 4-2) this week as they did last week over the Dolphins (who were 0-6 at the time). My guess is that it really doesn't matter what the spread is, they Pats will beat it. With that in mind, let's see what our "experts" have to say about the coming weekend in football.

The Prophet
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NCAA Football
We’ll try to keep the winners coming after a 3-1 week in last week’s plays:

CONNECTICUT +5 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA

If you've read my stuff in the past you're very familiar with the concept behind this selection--going against a team in the BCS hunt after an upset loss. One of the toughest challenges a college football coach faces is getting a team with high aspirations--be it a bowl berth, conference title or, in this case, a BCS bowl and perhaps even a crack at the mythical national championship--to regain their focus after an upset loss. For some reason, however, the casual fan or the armchair handicapper doesn't get this concept. Instead they assume that the team off the upset loss will be "chomping at the bit" and ready to exert a strong "bounceback" effort. Frequently you'll see public money pour in on the side off the upset loss at which point we just sit back and wait for an opportunity to get the best value by taking the other side.

South Florida has been the "Cinderella story" of this NCAA football season. Unfortunately with their lost last week to Rutgers their path to a BCS bowl berth has become much more difficult. Instead of a glossy undefeated record they now fall into the pack with a mass of teams from higher profile programs that have only one loss. They now play a dangerous UConn team in a difficult emotional spot but the line on this game is clearly shaded to the "squares" that that buy into the fallacious notion that UConn will come out to "assert their presence with authority" (to paraphrase Nuke LaLoosh from the movie "Bull Durham"). South Florida entered the Rutgers game as a -1' point favorite but they're a -5 favorite here. Since UConn has a better record both in conference and overall than Rutgers did why are they getting 3.5 more points?

Statistically these teams are dead even--South Florida has a more productive offense in terms of yards per game but UConn has a better defense by the same metric (including an impressive 98.1 YPG against the run). Connecticut has been an ATS monster this year with a 5-1 record against the number including a 3-0 mark as a dog and this is a strong situational spot for them: they're 10-4 ATS at home over the L3 years including a perfect 3-0 mark as a home dog in this price range (+3' to +7).

The media frenzy that made South Florida the darlings of sportscasters works against them here--instead of just another conference game this becomes a measuring stick for UConn where they have an opportunity to knock off a team that has been near the top of the national polls all season. This is also a revenge spot for UConn from a 38-16 road loss a year ago. It's a situation where we've got a good team that's been somewhat under the radar this season in a strong emotional spot against a good team that the media has made a "public" side in a bad emotional setting. Throw in the fact we're getting points and this looks like a perfect spot to step in with the home team. UCONN 28-24

NORTH CAROLINA +6 OVER WAKE FOREST

For one team, this is just another game in the fight for ACC Atlantic Division supremacy and something of a distraction from "more important" matchups. For the other, its arguably the biggest game of the season. Those of you who are familiar with the football culture of the South know full well that the biggest priority for most coaches is to win the rivalry games. Wins against high profile programs like Miami are nice, but beating your biggest rival is what keeps the fans happy, the booster dollars flowing in and the local recruits at home. Here's an example--of the many criticisms directed at Lou Holtz during his tenure at the University of South Carolina none were as dire as the locals belief that not only did Lou not perform well against hated rival Clemson he didn't "get" the football culture of the state or the significance of the rivalry. This is the legacy of Lou Holtz in South Carolina and completely overshadows the fact that he made the program nationally relevant again and likely set the stage for a coach of Steve Spurrier's stature to take the job. When Lou threw on a University of Kentucky jersey during the ESPN pregame for the South Carolina/Kentucky game he became persona non grata in the state. He would have not received a more disdainful response had he dropped his pants and urinated on the South Carolina palmetto tree flag. Of course no one was about to cut him any slack--he not only didn't beat Clemson, he didn't understand why this was a big deal.

Of the many things you can say about current North Carolina coach Butch Davis "clueless" is not one of them. Davis attended the University of Arkansas, a program that has a hate filled rivalry with seemingly every other elite football program in the Southeast (Alabama, Tennessee, LSU). Just for good measure, they've also got a serious rivalry with one of the top programs in the Southwest (the University of Texas). Davis no doubt learned a lot during his association with one of the sharpest minds in coaching history, Jimmie Johnson. In particular, the importance of beating the big in state rival was likely reinforced during his run as defensive line coach and later the head coach at the University of Miami.

A guy with the coaching pedigree of Davis will definitely be given all the time he needs to turn the Tar Heel program around by the administrators of the university. But a shrewd fellow like Davis knows that just as important--if not more so--is to win over the Tar Heel boosters. His team is inexperienced but has been competitive in every game with the exception of a blowout loss to South Florida. He's delivered a big win against a "name" program--his former team, the University of Miami--but the best way to win the hearts of southern football boosters is to deliver against the in-state rivals. While technically this is the 2nd in-state team he's faced (the Tar Heels lost 34-31 to East Carolina in the 2nd game of the season) its the first significant in-state rivalry game. Off a bye week I'm thinking his team will be relatively healthy, well rested and ready to go.

We alluded to this fact above, but despite their 2-5 SU record North Carolina has played tough. They're 4-2 ATS and have only lost one game by more than a TD. Aside from the aforementioned loss by 27 at South Florida they've been competitive all season against superior teams--in addition to beating Miami they've played tough at Virginia Tech and at home against Virginia and South Carolina. They also outgained their "superior" opponents in those close losses. The South Carolina game is perhaps the best example of this team's character as they fought back from a 2 TD+ deficit and completely shut down the Gamecock offense in the 2nd half. The Tar Heels are on a 3-0 ATS run as a dog this year and a 6-2 ATS run when getting points over the L3 years. They've also performed well at this venue, winning and covering six of the L7 meetings. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is on a 4-7 ATS run as a favorite and a 3-7 ATS run as a home favorite in this price range (3' to 10 points). As a favorite of 5 or more the Demon Deacons have dropped 10 straight. North Carolina wins outright. NORTH CAROLINA 28-17

GEORGIA +8' OVER FLORIDA

I never thought I'd see the day where a win over the University of Kentucky would be considered a significant victory in a sport other than basketball. Yet Florida's win last week was just that and now they turn around and face a team that plays good defense and is adept at getting high flying offenses out of their rhythm. The 'dawgs are off a workmanlike win over a Vanderbilt team that's no longer a joke, particularly on defense. To use a boxing and MMA comparison, Georgia is essentially the Winky Wright or Randy Couture of college football. They're good at making games ugly, and that's the way they want it because they've shown an ability to win "ugly" games. Plus its hard to pass up the opportunity to take a Mark Richt coached team as TD+ underdogs. Georgia is 6-2 ATS when getting points the L3 years and I like them to scrap out the win here with the line giving us a generous margin for error. GEORGIA 28-24

SOUTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE OVER 52'

Obviously Steve Spurrier is one hell of a coach and he's done a good job compensating for the weaknesses of this Gamecock football team. This week, however, their secondary may be finally exposed as the Gamecocks' defensive Achilles Heel. The Gamecocks offense has sputtered at times this year but against a team that wants to keep their offense on the field they won't see the same defensive intensity as they faced against their previous foes and the game will open up quite a bit. And we know that Tennessee will get their points, as they have all year. One of Spurrier's strengths is that he always knows what he needs to do to compete week in and week out. Against this Tennessee team which has averaged over 40 ppg at home they'll have to win a shootout. With the Vols defense giving up more than 30 ppg overall its the Gamecocks' best chance of winning. Vols have gone OVER in 6 of 7 this year and surprisingly South Carolina--typically a team you look to play UNDER a total--has gone OVER in 12 of their L16 games against teams with winning records. This is the best offense that South Carolina has played all year and if they want to stay in the game they'll have to open it up. We'll call it TENNESEE 37-30

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Dr. C
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NFL
New York Giants @ Miami: 28-3 Giants
Detroit @ Chicago: 20-13 Bears
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati: 27-20 Steelers
Philadelaphia @ Minnesota: 24-16 Eagles
Oakland @ Tennessee: 17-6 Titans
Buffalo @ New York Jets: 23-14 Bills
Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay: 31-9 Bucs
Houston @ San Diego: 34-24 Chargers
Washington @ New England: 38-21 Patriots
Green Bay @ Denver: 24-21 Broncos

STONE COLD LOCKS
Cleveland @ St. Louis: LINE: CLE -3 31-10 Browns
Indianapolis @ Carolina: LINE: IND -7 34-13 Colts
New Orleans @ San Francisco: LINE: NO -3 31-10 Saints

For more analysis and detail on Dr. C's selections, click here.

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The Original JD
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NCAA Football
VIRGINIA TECH (-3) over Boston College
USC (+3) over OREGON
South Carolina (+3) over TENNESSEE
PENN STATE (-4.5) over Ohio State

For more analysis and detail on JD's selections, click here.

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DMtShooter
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NFL
CHICAGO covering 5 at home against Detroit.
Pittsburgh covering 3.5 on the road against the BENGALS.
Indianapolis covering 6.5 on the road against the PANTHERS.
TENNESSEE covering 7.5 against Oakland.
ST. LOUIS as a 3-point home dog.
Giants covering 9.5 in London against the "home team" Dolphins.
Eagles as a 1-point favorite in MINNESOTA.
Buffalo as a 3-point road dog at the JETS.
SAN DIEGO (no line) over Houston.
Jacksonville as a 4-point road dog in TAMPA BAY.
SAN FRANCISCO as a 3-point home dog against New Orleans.
NEW ENGLAND covering 16.5 against the Redskins.
Green Bay as a 3-point dog in DENVER.

For more analysis and detail on Shooter's selections, click here.

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Stan
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NCAA Football
Boise State/FRESNO STATE – Over (62.5)
Central Michigan (-2.5) over KENT
Usc (+3) over OREGON
FLORIDA (-7) over Georgia
MARYLAND (+3.5) over Clemson
PENN STATE (+3.5) over Ohio State

NFL
ST. LOUIS (+3) over Cleveland
Philadelphia (-1) over MINNESOTA
CINCINNATI (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
Buffalo (+3) over N.Y JETS
New Orleans (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

For more analysis and detail on Stan's selections, click here.

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Simon
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NFL
Houston Texans (+10 1/2) vs. San Diego Chargers
Detroit Lions (+5 1/2) at Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4 1/2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets (-2 1/2) vs. Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts (-7 1/2) at Carolina Panthers

For more analysis and detail on Simon's selections, click here.

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Shorty
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NCAA Football
3 Team Teaser --> (+10 points)
Louisville (+1)
Florida (+2)
California (+13)

NFL
2 Team Parlay -->
Bears (-5)
Jets (-3)

For more analysis and detail on Shorty's selections, click here.

And, of course, as you all know, these picks are purely for entertainment purposes. Illegal wagering is a crime in the United States of America.