THE DODGERS ARE SCREWED NEXT YEAR

by Dr. C, Chicago Bull

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be embarking on their 50th anniversary this upcoming year as the team moved from Brooklyn to L.A. in 1958. It appears the Dodgers are looking to lock up Joe Torre as their 30th manager in club history after he declined an one year extension with the Bronx Bombers. But if history doesn't lie, that would be the last thing the Dodgers want to do. Here's why:

Torre has managed 4 clubs in his career: the Mets, Braves, Cardinals and Yankees. In his first managing the Mets in 1977, they finished in dead last with a record of 64-98. He lasted there 6 seasons with the club never placing higher then fourth. His second team he managed was the Braves, and in his first year, the Braves took the NL West title, only to be swept by the Cardinals in the NLCS that year. After three quick years in Atlanta, he went on to manage the same team that swept his in 82'. Torre was brought on after Whitey Herzog bailed the Red Birds, and they finished last with him in the dugout for 58 games. Fast forward to 96' when he came onto the Yankees, and we all obviously know what happened from there.

Starting to see the trend? Every odd team Torre manages never goes anywhere. Is it stupid to rely on that fact alone. Of course. That's why we press on. In history of the Dodgers club that dates back to 1884, they've had 30 managers. Of those 30 managers, only Ned Hanlon in 1899, Clyde Sukeforth/Burt Shotton in 47', and Tommy Lasorda in 77' led the Dodgers to first place in their first year as skipper. Historically speaking, that gives Torre a 10 percent chance of taking the NL West in his first year. Still a bit outside of the box. Let's look at the current roster then, along with their competition.

The 2007 Los Angeles Dodgers under Grady Little at the helm finished 82-80, 8 games behind the N.L. West champs Arizona. The two games above .500 record had them in 4th place to finish the year. Statistically, soon to be 40-year old Jeff Kent led the team in Batting average (.302) and Homers (20), while Russell Martin led the team in RBI's (87). Overall, the team is a mix of veterans who are past their prime (Luis Gonzalez, Nomar, Kent) and youth that has promise (James Loney, Matt Kemp). In order for this team to be successful next year, they need their young players to step up fast. They scored 735 runs, they gave up 727. To me, this team screams average. The amount of production from their three aforementioned veterans will not be any better this year, and I'm not sure how much Loney, Kemp and Andre Ethier will be able to pick up.

In terms of the pitching staff, Jason Schmidt was a complete bust this year, sitting on the DL for almost the entire season. Brad Penny was solid as usual, earning a 16-4 record while eating up over 200 innings. Derek Lowe had a decent season though his record doesn't show it 12-14, but did have 3.88 ERA and led the team in strikeouts. Outside of those two, the Dodgers don't have much. Randy Wolf started off the season very well, but was shut down after injury and is a free agent who certainly get calls in this pitching starved market. Takashi Saito made the All-Star team this year along Penny and Martin, and finished with 39 saves. In short, assuming the Dodgers are able to keep the southpaw Wolf next year, they have 3 solid starters. Chad Billingsley had a good 12-5 record, and will need to have another good year if the Dodgers to move on.

Overall Analysis: The D'backs and Rockies are definitely better squads then the Dodgers. The Padres have excellent pitching, but no offense whatsoever. San Francisco is rebuilding on the fly, so there's no reason to think this squad cant' finish in at least third place. But I don't see how they're going to get past the Rox and Snakes with Nomar, Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Kent leading the way. While Loney and Kemp could help, it won't be enough. Add in the historical references as well, and the Dodgers are screwed for making the playoffs. So if you do take the job Joe, good luck. You'll need it.