EPIC NBA PREVIEW

by BD, Epic Carnival

I've laid out the divisions over the past two weeks and now it's time to take a look and the conferences as a whole. It's time to predict who'll be taking home the hardware at the end of the season. Both the team variety as well as those individual awards guys don't mind adding to their mantle's, either. With KG, Ray, and The Truth prove that three superstars can coexist and win it all, despite the lack of depth? Will the Spurs finally manage a repeat? Can the Suns finally breakthrough to the Finals? Will T-Mac and Yao get out of the first round? Will the Knicks be able to do anything amidst the MSG/Isiah legal issues? So many questions, and we've run out of time. Below is my best guess for how this season will turn out when all is said and done.

The Epic NBA Preview
You can find the divisional preview here, here, and here. But, be warned I'm changing a few things around to make up for my horrible math skills, among other things.

Eastern Conference
1. Detroit Pistons*
2. Boston Celtics*
3. Chicago Bulls
4. Washington Wizards*
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. New Jersey Nets
7. New York Knicks
8. Toronto Raptors
9. Miami Heat
10. Orlando Magic
11. Milwaukee Bucks
12. Atlanta Hawks
13. Charlotte Bobcats
14. Indiana Pacers
15. Philadelphia 76ers

*-Division Winner

I've flip-flopped on the bottom four a number of times, but this is what I've decided on. The Heat missing the playoff all-together? That's right. And theirs a very good reason for that: health. Dwayne Wade isn't going to be playing for a while yet and when he does get back he won't be fully healthy for weeks, if not months. When he's not healthy he tends to settle for bad jump shots and shy away from contact as much as he can. The result? A less than effective Wade, who cannot carry this team. The addition of Ricky Davis will help, initially, but he'll become more of a problem than anything else as the season progresses and he finds his way into Riley's doghouse. As for Shaq, he'll get hurt again, he always does. And this year the Heat won't be able to dig out of the hole in time. To be fair though, I have a feeling they'll manage to take 8th and knock Toronto out of the playoffs. As far as I'm concerned the bottom three spots can be had by anyone I've got ranked from 6-10.

At the top I gave Detroit the slight edge over Boston as I think the Pistons chemistry and experience together is good enough for a couple more wins. Boston, however, won't be far behind as KG, The Truth, and Ray spend more and more time on the floor together. Detroit still has 4 of the 5 guys won won a championship in 2004 and have reloaded the bench will quality, though young, players. The questions are simple. Is their any tread left on the tires of an aging franchise that's been worn to the ground the last two seasons by a coach who doesn't trust his bench? How much will Aaron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey and the other additions contribute off the bench? And for Stuckey, will he be able to handle the point after spending his college career in score-first mode? Can Antonio McDyess stay healthy as his nightly minutes are expected to double? Will Amir Johnson start to emerge as the player we think he can be? Regardless of how Flip handles the minutes, the starters alone can nab the #1 seed for this squad. It'll be up to the coach and the bench to make sure they've got enough left for the playoffs.

Boston has only a few questions. How much will the big three have left come playoff time? I have no doubt they'll be playing 38 minutes a night each as they have absolutely nothing on the bench. Can Rajon Rondo develop a decent jump shot to keep the defense honest? Can three "stars" coexist?

Chicago will continue to beat people on athleticism alone. They've got a couple of freakish athletes in Tyrus Thomas and Luol Deng. They've got defensive stoppers in Deng, and Ben Wallace. They've got a pure scorer in Ben Gordon, and they've got a pass-first, though deadly shooter, running the point in Kirk Hinrich. You'd think they have it all, especially after adding Joakim Noah's energy to Thomas', but they don't. Wallace isn't going to do much scoring and Thomas isn't ready to be the low post scorer the Bulls need. So expect to see plenty more awkward possessions in which you're wondering what in the hell they're doing. But, if Thomas develops down low all of a sudden the Bulls will take over and I'm not sure anyone can stop them.

Washington may, or may not, have the 4th best record, but they've got to be in the top 4 as a division winner. As I said before I think they'll coast to the division title as their only real competition (the Heat), is expected to spot them far to big of a lead to catch up. Gilbert Arenas should put together another fantastic year and guarantee himself a max contract this off-season. The Wizards have a problem though, a big one, they lack a big man for either side of the ball. Brendan Haywood flat sucks at everything and Etan Thomas, a solid defensive presence, will be out awhile. Around Arenas though, they still have Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, and they've added Nick Young as well. The Wizards can flat out score, but they can't stop anyone. Not even slightly. They'll steal the 4th spot and then they'll go home like they do every year.

LeBron is great and everything, but he can't do it by himself for 82 games and then get his team to the Finals. Sure, you could say he did last year, but he didn't. He had help throughout the season and the playoffs. This year the Cavs will start the season without two of LBJ's most valuable teammates: Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic. Both guys want contracts they don't deserve and Cleveland is doing the right thing, but they'll have to play this season knowing they've got no shot to win it all. Not that they do with them, but LBJ can use all the help he can get. Larry Hughes and the big stiff man (no pun intended) Illgauskus aren't enough to get it done. LBJ and Co. are will be lucky to grab the 5 seed. As I could see them sliding, and being knocked out in the first round a year after reaching the Finals.

New Jersey returns their big three in Vinsanity, Kidd and Jefferson. They also get back Krstic and add much needed depth up front with Sean Williams and Jamaal Magloire. On top of that they've got a year older Josh Boone and uhh.. Jason Collins who shouldn't start for anyone. I fully expect Boone to replace him as the starter at some point this season. The Nets biggest problem and the reason they have the potential to fall out of the playoffs all-together is simple: Vince Carter takes plays off. Lots of them. To combat this the Nets should get Jefferson more involved instead of using him only when Carter loses interest or isn't shooting well. Looking at the roster you'd think New Jersey would run more as J-Kidd is still the best pure passer in the league. Like Washington I just think New Jersey has to much talent on the perimeter not to make the playoffs. Though, they did underachieve miserably last season.

The Knicks are too big and athletic not to make the playoffs, but they've got plenty of off the court distractions hindering them heading into the season with Isiah's legal troubles. The roster is stacked, with Curry and Randolph up front their unrivaled inside throughout the Eastern Conference and despite they've got plenty of outside talent to go with them. They just need Jamaal Crawford to have some consistency, Stephon Marbuy to check his ego and Q-Rich to get back to knocking down every open look he gets. And he should get plenty as defense will have no choice but to double Curry and Randolph down low. Off the bench they've got super-energy guys in Balkman and Lee. The latter of which is arguably the leagues best rebounder after averaging 10 a night off the bench last season. Looking at it, Lee should probably be the one starting alongside Randolph, but barring injury that's not going to happen after Isiah gave up everything but his house to land Curry in the first place. Expect the Knicks to reach the playoffs and give their first round opponent (slated as Boston) everything they can handle.

Toronto is a tough team to gauge. I originally had them on the outside looking in, but have decided to slide them into the final spot. They've got more shooters than you could count and one of the leagues best big in Chris Bosh. My issue with them is that they rely too much on outside shooting, but like Phoenix they've been successful with it thus far. But, much like last season they'll be bounced from the playoff early once a team (Detroit) slows them down and forces them to score in the half court.

The rest of the East doesn't have much to talk about outside of Orlando and the already discussed Heat. The Magic have the next great big man in Dwight Howard and they added Rashard Lewis, but letting Darko walk will cost this team a playoff spot. He took pressure off of Howard up front and had could help keep defenses out of the lane. Lewis won't be able to do that, he's simply not a power forward, he's a wing trying to pose as one. On top of that, Jameer Nelson just isn't a true point guard who's prone to bad shot selection. Even worse, J.J. Reddick is expected to get quality minutes at the off-guard spot. This is a guy who couldn't stop Tony Soprano from getting to the bucket. All in all, things look bad for Orlando.

As for the rest of the East? Not much to talk about. A lot of young teams who will be hard pressed to improve enough to squeeze into the playoffs. Though I must say I'm amazed at just how bad the roster looks for the 76ers. It may be the weakest roster I've ever seen.

Western Conference
1. Phoenix Suns*
2. Dallas Mavericks*
3. Houston Rockets
4. Utah Jazz*
5. San Antonio Spurs
6. Denver Nuggets
7. New Orleans Hornets
8. Golden State Warriors
9. Memphis Grizzlies
10. Los Angeles Lakers
11. Los Angeles Clippers
12. Portland Trailblazers
13. Seattle Supersonics
14. Sacramento Kings
15. Minnesota Timberwolves

*-Division Winner

The Suns will once again rack up wins in the regular season, but a number of things could keep them from grabbing the #1 seed. Shawn Marion's trade request, which if he's traded how does his replacement fit in? Can Grant Hill keep up with the pace? Can Steve Nash go wire-to-wire healthy again? The Marion situation could get bad and he'd be a huge loss for this team. Without him Amare will be double teamed even more and the guy he likes to dump it off to won't be around. They'll also lose a 4 who can shoot from the outside and create his own shot, a rarity at his position. Regardless, I think the Suns stockpile wins and reclaim the top spot out west.

Dallas will be hot on Phoenix's heels as they should be able to put together another great regular season. But, I think they'll lose a bit as the league takes Nelson lead on defending their versatile big man. To combat this, I'd recommend Dirk spend more time in the post and work with his back to the basket. The usual suspects will contribute their share (Terry, Stack, Harris and now Eddie Jones) and Josh Howard become the 1a to Dirk 1 as he makes good on the expectations that he's the next superstar from the class of '03.

I'm out on a bit of a limb with the Rockets in the three spot, but I think this is the year they finally knock San Antonio into the bottom half of the West. If for no other reason than the way the Spurs like to relax for the first half of the season. Rick Adelman bring a new set of tools to the table and he's putting them to work immediately. He'll be working Yao at a third of the time from the elbow ala Chris Webber in Sacto a few years back. Yao will finally get to show off his passing skills as he finds cutters for easy buckets. If you sag off Yao? He'll hit the open shot from the elbow as well. While on one hand I don't like Yao out of the post, where he's been so dominant, this should help him stay healthy in the long run. Then you have T-Mac who must adjust to playing off the ball after he's dominated for most of his career. You see, T-Mac is just as much a point guard as he is a superstar and it'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to life off the ball. Add to those two all of this talent: Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Bonzi Wells, Rafer Alston, Mike James and 89 year old Dikembe Mutumbo.I expect Houston to be good this year, if they fail to reach the 3rd

Utah gets the 4th spot over San Antonio because of the division winner rules, but they'll be hard pressed to get through San Antonio in the playoffs. That said, I liken Utah a lot to the Spurs. They play mostly a half court game relying on quality post play (Boozer) and a good point guard (Williams). In Williams they have arguably the leagues best young point guard, a guy who had his coming out party during last years postseason and is only going to continue to get better. With Boozer they can run the famous pick-n-roll all over again. Only this time, they've got more then just two guys. Mehmet Okur can get it done inside and out, he stretches the floor and allows Boozer to work inside. The only real loss for this team was Derek Fisher who provided a nice compliment to Williams in the back court, his replacement? Ronnie Brewer, who has looked fantastic during the preseason. If he can keep it up this Jazz team could slide into the three spot and force the Rockets to go through San Antonio in the first round. The big question in Utah if what are they going to get from Kirilenko? A guy who wants a trade, but is so far overpaid he's almost impossible to deal unless they're giving him away. Should be an interesting situation to monitor, much like the one in Phoenix.

I know you're wondering how in the hell I have San Antonio slotted 5th out west despite returning virtually all of their championship team. Much like last year I expect San Antonio to start out relatively slow, but this time Houston will maintain their pace and hold off the Spurs for the 3rd spot. It won't make much of a difference for the Spurs though as they'll have home court against Utah and we all seen what they did to the Jazz in last year's Western Finals. Tony Parker has emerged as the leagues 2nd best point guard behind Steve Nash. He dominated throughout the playoffs last season and remains the catalyst for the offense while Tim Duncan remains the cornerstone of everything they do. The Spurs will once again be one of the West's toughest teams, but they'll be doing it from a different spot when the postseason rolls around.

Can J.R. Smith get his head out of his ass? That's just one of many questions surrounding a team that has the talent to not only win their division but finish in the top three of the West. Carmelo Anthony has improved every season and this year will be no different, but it's his teammates not Anthony that provide the questions. It's not secret that AI's lost a step, but how will he adjust his game to combat his declining speed? And can he handle being a complimentary player for the good of the team? Can the front court (Nene, K-Mart, and Camby) stay healthy? Something that seems to be virtually impossible. And just how much will the lack of a true point guard hurt this team? If the front court can stay healthy the Nuggets have a shot to win their division. If not, whether AI can get it done or not won't make a difference. The 6th seed will once again be their ceiling.

New Orleans is an interesting team that needs a lot to right to get into the playoffs, much like the team behind them Golden State. I'm betting on more good, then bad In New Orleans, and putting them into the top 8. Chris Paul has fallen to 2nd best of the league's young point guards after Deron Williams impressed well into the summer last year. CP3 will be eager to prove that he, and not Deron, is the best young PG, (if not PG all together) in the league. He's got a healthy Peja at his disposal, though that is hardly guaranteed to last and as great as Peja's shooting is... he doesn't play any defense. None at all, like J.J. he can't stop anybody. But, if he's spreading the floor and hitting his shots his lack of D may be worth it. David West is a solid post scorer, but he's far from an elite 4. I love the addition of Morris Peterson on the wing as he's just another shooter for CP3 to kick to when the defense converges on his drives. The final piece is Tyson Chandler, who is far from an offensive threat, but he's a disgustingly athletic big man who rebounds and blocks shots about as well as you can expect. They could miss out altogether but I like CP3 to finally get his squad into the playoffs.

Golden State could be in for a mighty fall this season as they finished last year on quite a high. They cast off Jason Richardson and I can't help but wonder just how much he'll be missed. Substantially I'd imagine, but at the same time it's clear to anyone that this team has a gluttony of perimeter talent. The key to that perimeter and the entire season, however, is Baron Davis. If he stays healthy the Warriors have a shot to reach the playoff for the second strait year. If he misses an extended period of time they'll be lucky to finish 9th. I expect Barnes (most likely), Pietrus, or Azubuike to step into the starting lineup for Richardson, but can they replicate his production over the course of a season? We're certainly going to find out, but I think so.

The top of West's lottery winners are decent playoff caliber teams. The Grizzlies are probably the most improved team in the league, but I think it's going to take a year for them to get all the kinks worked and jump back into the playoffs. Kobe can't do everything himself forever and this season he won't be able to, assuming he stays, that is. The Clippers don't have Elton Brand, and won't for maybe the entire season. Portland, Seattle, and Minnesota are all really young and won't really compete. Though I expect Portland to put in some good performances as the young nucleus comes together. Sacramento was already horrible and now they won't have Bibby for over a month. They need to let both he and Artest go, instead of one or the other, and start officially rebuilding.

Eastern Conference Playoffs

First Round
(1) Detroit over (8) Toronto in 4
(5) Cleveland over (4) Washington in 6
(2) Boston over (7) New York in 5
(3) Chicago over (6) New Jersey in 7

These are all pretty easy calls. As they generally are in the first round. I expect New Jersey to give Chicago all they can handle as their improved interior defense stifles a team already lacking an inside punch. Cleveland-Washington should be good as well, but I feel like LeBron will somehow will himself into the 2nd round. A place revenge will be waiting...

Second Round
(1) Detroit over (5) Cleveland in 5
(3) Chicago over (2) Boston in 7

The lack of depth will kill the Cavs against a Pistons team that has depth for the first time in years. LeBron will have worn out as he can't do it alone every year. The Boston-Chicago series is an incredibly tough call. On one hand you have arguably the deepest squad in the league. On the other, you have hat should be an in sync trio of superstars that will be worn down. I'm betting on depth after watching the Pistons starters wear down the last two years. Though if the Kobe trade happens and it guts the team I'd likely Boston here.

Western Conference Playoffs

First Round
(1) Phoenix over (8) Golden State in 5
(5) San Antonio over (4) Utah in 5
(2) Dallas over (7) New Orleans in 4
(3) Houston over (6) Denver in 6

Phoenix and Golden State play a similar style, but Phoenix does it better. Same story for San Antonio-Utah. Dallas has just to much for New Orleans to handle. T-Mac and Yao get over the hump and advance over an up and down Denver squad that's likely to be relying on just Carmelo by this point in the season.

Second Round
(5) San Antonio over (1) Phoenix in 7
(3) Houston over (2) Dallas in 7

Once again San Antonio will oust Phoenix from the playoffs after a stellar regular season. Once again questions will abound about whether or not their style can win in the playoffs. Houston's depth will be the difference against Dallas. And I like Yao from the elbow picking Dallas' defense apart.

Conference Finals

East
(1) Detroit over (3) Chicago in 6

I just feel like Detroit is the best team in the East now that they've got some quality depth behind the starters. By this time Stuckey will be back and contributing and Amir Johnson should be contributing as well. I fully expect Detroit to dominate Chicago inside and the size of their guards (mainly Billups) to continue to present problems for Hinrich and Gordon.

West
(5) San Antonio over (3) Houston in 6

As much as I'd like to roll with my dark horse Houston this is where I get off that train. The Rockets are at least another year away from making the Finals and the Spurs are just too good. The Rockets won the battle (regular season), but the Spurs will win the war.

NBA Finals
(West 5) San Antonio over (East 1) Detroit in 7
Finals MVP - Manu Ginobili

Just like the last time these two met up (2005), this will be an absolute slug fest and it'll bore the general public. But, I'll enjoy every minute of it as all 7 games will go down to the wire. 'Sheed said he'd make up for the championship loss to the Spurs and now he gets his shot. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't have the defensive presence of Ben Wallace to help him out inside. McDyess is a good player, but I think Tim Duncan is just to much. Add to that the quickness of Tony Parker on the perimeter as an aging Chauncey Billups tries to keep up with him and all signs point to San Antonio. This really could go either way, but as you can see I'll roll with the Spurs. Though I hope I'm wrong dynasty's bore the hell out of me.

Awards
NBA MVP - Yao Ming
Rooke Of The Year - Al Thornton
Defensive Player Of The Year - Tayshaun Prince
Sixth Man - Leandro Barbosa
Most Improved Player - Ronnie Brewer
All NBA First Team
Steve Nash, Tracy McGrady, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Yao Ming
All Defensive First Team
Chauncey Billups, Kirk Hinrich, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming
All Rookie First Team
Marco Bellinelli, Kevin Durant, Julian Wright, Al Thornton, Al Horford

That's it, that's all I've got. Thoughts? Am I completely out of my mind? I want to know why your team will be advancing further than I have them?