AGAINST THE SPREAD: TAKE THE UNDER IN THE BEARS GAME

by DCScrap, Editor

No Patriots this week. Probably good news for bookmakers across the country (and world). My question this week is: How are you doing betting the NCAA this year? Are all the upsets ruining your fun? My take on the weekend is to bet the under on the Bears/Raiders epic battle, but let's see what our "experts" have to say about the upcoming weekend on the gridiron.

The Prophet
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NCAA Football

SOUTH CAROLINA +6’ OVER FLORIDA
Here’s the kind of inside information you can only get from a handicapping professional such as myself: South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier places a great deal of importance on this game. The Gamecocks beat the Gators outright at home in Spurrier’s first year and then fought a vastly superior Florida team tooth and nail at “The Swamp” before losing by a single point and easily covering as a +13 underdog. While I realize that not all of the players on the Gamecock squad could be mistaken for Mensa members (and I’m looking at you Blake “Math is Hard” Mitchell) they’re smart enough to realize this—if they don’t put up a credible effort in the head to head matchup with “the ol’ ball coach’s” former employer it doesn’t bode well for their future in the South Carolina football program.

Tim Tebow is a decent rushing QB, and if you had any questions about the South Carolina run defense they should have been answered in the negative by the 511 yards on the ground allowed to Arkansas last week. While I can’t offer any real justification for that sort of stat you have to keep in mind that those were two potential NFL running backs in the Hog backfield last week. Florida doesn’t have those kind of playmakers and you have to think that the Gamecock defensive front will be extremely motivated to exert a better effort than they did last week.

While the biggest game of the year for Gamecock supporters is the annual rivalry with Clemson, for the coach and the team this is it. Florida is a big money burner as a road favorite (1-7 ATS run) and Steve Spurrier will have this bunch of Gamecocks playing like rabid wolverines (and not the Michigan kind). With South Carolina on the receiving end of a beatdown last week at Arkansas and Florida having administered a beatdown at home against Vandy last week it couldn’t set up better for us. Gamecocks win outright and that’s all we need…SOUTH CAROLINA 24-21

VIRGINIA +3’ OVER MIAMI-FL
VIRGINIA/MIAMI-FL UNDER 41’
I hate to be predictable but I’d rather be predictable and profitable than innovative and poor. If I have to explain the totals play on Miami-FL/Virginia UNDER again then you people aren’t paying attention. In deference to new readers I’ll go through the basics: Miami is a team with a solid defense but no playmakers on offense. The totals on their games are still *fairly* high—perhaps due to their reputation as a powerhouse. Here’s the reality: they’re on a 10-23 UNDER run overall. They’re 7-18 UNDER when favored and have gone UNDER in 15 of their L18 home games. Virginia has their own UNDER tendency to keep in mind—they’ve gone UNDER in 15 of their L20 conference games. I keep waiting for the totals on Miami games to get low enough where I’m no longer interested in playing them UNDER but as of yet it hasn’t happened. We’ll keep milking it for as long as we can.

And the side play—once again, it’s a case where the favorite is laying points based on the reputation of their program. In reality, I’d at least be looking at this play if UVa was favored by this price. Virginia has covered the last two meetings head to head—they hung with a far superior ‘canes team in 2005 losing by 8 as a 17’ dog. Last year they won—surprise—a boring, low scoring game in Charlottesville by the score of 17-7 as a +3 home dog. Based on the average line value assigned to the home team there’s been some adjustment in the price—when you see a team favored by 3’ at home it essentially means that on a neutral field the game would be a toss up. And on a neutral field Virginia would *still* be the better team and certainly has the more productive offense. And for those of you worried about the Miami home field “advantage” check these numbers out: over the L3 years the Hurricanes are 10-23 overall, 7-18 as a favorite, 7-14 in conference, and 3-15 at home including dropping 5 of their L6. They’ve failed to cover in 4 opportunities as a favorite in ACC play this year and they won’t do it here either. UVA wins a snoozer by a score of 17-10.

WAKE FOREST +9 OVER CLEMSON
Here’s a good handicapping lesson that will serve you well in life. First, let me give you some quick background. The past few weeks have been insane for me personally and professionally. It started out being a “bad” kind of insane, but last week it turned around and has become a “good” kind of insane. Nevertheless, I’m overwhelmed and just haven’t had the luxury of researching and handicapping every football game in the nation as thoroughly as I usually do. So what I’ve done is stick close to home: I’ve concentrated on my local schools, since I know their personnel and tendencies like the back of my hand. Even if I didn’t, I’ve got no shortage of people I can call around here who do. I’ve also concentrated on a concept that has worked well for me in the past—sort of a “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” approach. The lesson for you to take away from this: if you’re ever in a position where you haven’t been able to properly break down the entire slate of games—not only in college football but in any sport—stick to what you know works and/or teams that you know well.

A propos of that we’ll pick on our other big South Carolina school and take Wake Forest plus the points here. Again, a few simple concepts that we’ve discussed in past issues are at play here. This Clemson team is not that good and, more significantly, are incredibly inconsistent. Wake Forest is a scrappy team that I love to take as a dog, but want to go against as a favorite. Jim Grobe has a 18-8-1 ATS record as an underdog which is a testimony to the hard work and skill of he and his staff. He’s one of our favorite coaches in terms of preparation and how they “call” a game. The reality is that the personnel of these two teams isn’t as far apart as this price would indicate and we’re getting the far better preparation/game coach plus a good number of points. All this Wake Forest team has done is cover 4 straight against Clemson, cover 5 of the L7 at “Death Valley” and 10 of the L15 overall. This one they’ll get outright but we’ve got a good margin for error if they don’t. WAKE FOREST 28-24

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Dr. C
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NFL
Minnesota @ Green Bay: 27-20 Packers
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh: 31-23 Steelers
St. Louis @ New Orleans: 41-10 Saints
Jacksonville @ Tennessee: 17-9 Titans
Philadelphia @ Washington: 21-20 Redskins
Atlanta @ Carolina: 17-3 Falcons
Detroit @ Arizona: 27-17 Lions
Cowboys @ Giants: 35-28 Cowboys
Chicago @ Oakland: 24-13 Bears
San Francisco @ Seattle: 27-6 Seahawks

STONE COLD LOCKS
Buffalo @ Miami: LINE: -3 BUF 24-6 Bills
Cincinnati @ Baltimore: OVER/UNDER: 44.5, TAKE THE UNDER 20-17 Ravens
Indianapolis @ San Diego: LINE: -4 IND 31-17 Colts

For more analysis and detail on Dr. C's selections, click here.

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The Original JD
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NFL
Cleveland (+9.5) over PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati (+4) over BALTIMORE
Detroit (-1) over ARIZONA
Indianapolis (-4.5) over SAN DIEGO

NCAA Football
CLEMSON (-9) over Wake Forest
SYRACUSE (+16.5) over South Florida
UConn (+6.5) over CINCINNATI

For more analysis and detail on JD's selections, click here and here.

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DMtShooter
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NFL
PITTSBURGH covering 9.5 over Cleveland.
Minnesota as the 5.5 point underdog in GREEN BAY.
Philadelphia as a 3 point underdog in WASHINGTON.
TENNESSEE in a pick'em against Jacksonville.
Atlanta covering 4 on the road in CAROLINA.
KANSAS CITY in a pick'em against Denver.
Buffalo covering 3 against MIAMI.
St. Louis as an 11.5 point dog in NEW ORLEANS.
Cincinnati as a 4 point dog in BALTIMORE.
Chicago covering 3.5 in OAKLAND.
Dallas covering 1.5 points on the road against the GIANTS.
ARIZONA covering 1 against Detroit.
Indianapolis cover 3.5 against SAN DIEGO.
SEATTLE covering 10 against San Francisco.

For more analysis and detail on Shooter's selections, click here.

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Stan
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NFL
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Denver
Buffalo (-3) over MIAMI
PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over Cleveland
St. Louis (+12) over NEW ORLEANS
Philadelphia (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
Minnesota (+6) over GREEN BAY
Chicago (-3) over OAKLAND
Detroit (-1) over ARIZONA

For more analysis and detail on Stan's selections, click here.

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Simon
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NFL
Minnesota Vikings (+6 1/2) at Green Bay Packers
Tennessee Titans (-4 1/2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts (-3 1/2) at San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals (+5 1/2) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Detroit Lions(+1 1/2) at Arizona Cardinals

For more analysis and detail on Simon's selections, click here.

And, of course, as you all know, these picks are purely for entertainment purposes. Illegal wagering is a crime in the United States of America.