AIN'T NO LOVE IN THE FIRST ROUND OF FANTASY FOOTBALL CITY

by Andrew, The Grand National Championships

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Fantasy Football is just an accepted form of gambling. The variance is huge, and you know what? 25 to 30 percent of your first round picks hit to a point where you were reasonably happy with them. And even then? You still couldn't count on them to be healthy when you need them.

You want examples? Sure. I'll break down an average twelve team draft for you, and you'll see. Oh, you will see.

#1) LaDainian Tomlinson. Now sure, LaDainian does have a combined ten touchdowns (one passing) total up to this point. But for the #1 pick in the draft, only two one-hundred yard plus games and only one multi-score game, not to mention only 733 yards rushing with games against Jacksonville, Baltimore (who can still stuff the run), and Tennessee, is falling short of the hallowed goal.

#2) Steven Jackson. This guy was supposed to be Batman meets Jesus meets Earl Campbell after the majesty that was his charge to finish 2006. He missed a month with a groin injury. Injuries happen. (People happy with their first pick had their guys miss time.) However, 440 total yards from scrimmage and 3 scores (one passing) means he isn't performing when healthy. (Averaging 58 fewer yards per scrimmage than 2006.)

#3) Larry Johnson. Now this is the fall that everyone expected. 370 Carries is a kiss of death. LJ had 418 in '06. Nobody expected a third straight 1700 yard season. However, the cruelest cut of Larry Johnson was that he was actually coming around in his last five games. (3 100-yard performances, four touchdowns.) But then he hurt this foot. It's been that sort of a year in Kansas City.

#4) Frank Gore. The man was also a monster last season. 1600+ yards, it was a beautiful thing. He didn't score much, but still. If you were in a league where 10 yards = 1 point, he was magical. But when the Peter Principle got to Norv Turner again, Mike Nolan went with a crony as offensive coordinator, and quite frankly, it all went to shit. Here's a fun fact about Frank Gore. He's only touched the ball 20+ times once this year.

#5) Peyton Manning. Here's where you get one you like. Sure, he's not Tom Brady throwing behind an impetus of a coach that hates football and freedom, but you drafted him expecting about 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, and you are indeed about at that point. Add in three rushing touchdowns, and Manning, while not off the charts glorious, has not disappointed.

#6) Shaun Alexander. The life of a running back is cold, brutish and short. Shaun Alexander is the perfect microcosm. From 2003-2005, Shaun Alexander was at the top of the pops as running backs go. In fact, in '05 he broke Priest Holmes' record. In 2006 he broke his foot as LT broke his record. In 2007? A broken wrist, as well as ankle and knee problems have opened the door for MoMo (Maurice Morris) to take the job away. Fear the Madden curse, and please, when you do go, steal Emmitt's job, okay?

#7) Joesph Addai. He has been as good as Tomlinson this year (despite missing a game) with more consistency. He has had four one-hundred yard games this year. He has scored his nine touchdowns in seven different games. (Only an odd vulturing in Jacksonville left him shutout.) He is remarkably dependable, and I still wish him great bodily harm.

#8) Willie Parker. This is a tale of two cities pick right here. On the one hand, he is rushing for 873 yards, with six times over the century mark. On the other hand? Two touchdowns. Two. So, if you're a balanced system? Huzzah for taking Fast Willie. If not?

*pats reader on the head*

There there.

#9) Brian Westbrook. Brian Westbrook has to do with two things. Total offense and missing games. He's awesome, but tiny. Tiny people get hurt. And Westbrook has missed a game this year. But in the other eight games, he has been touched by the spirit of old man Marshall Faulk. 701 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, 517 yards with 4 receiving touchdowns. And if you're in a Point Per Reception League? That's 54 bonus points. At this point? He is a golden roto God.

#10) Rudi Johnson. The past three years, the bimboically named Rudi has been a beacon of consistency. 1300-1450 yards, 12 scores. Solid. Dependable. You cannot hate. However, he has missed three games this season and has been rather limited in two others. (Three weeks he's put up 9, 8, and 11 yards respectively.) 242 yards and 1 receiving touchdown do not make their owners happy. Games with Arizona, Tennessee and Pittsbugh do not make their owners happy.

PRO TIP: Weeks 14-17 Rudi plays St. Louis, San Fransisco, Cleveland, and Miami. If you aren't 2-8 because you had a bad draft? Spin the wheel and make the deal if the playoffs are a lock.

#11) Reggie Bush. A marginal disappointment. Like Westbrook, he was supposed to be this big bad dual threat that would terrorize defenses to terror! Unlike Westbrook, he has been about as consistent as his team with 715 total yards and 6 scores in nine games. Of course, those Points per reception people have to love his 55 catches. I love his 5.2 Yards per reception. That's a home run threat!

#12) Laurence Maroney. The man some would wish to be a Kool-Aid Man was considered by some to be on the same plane as one Joesph Addai. Those people were idiots. Belichick overhauled his receivers because he wanted to have his Tom Brady happy. And after Maroney missed three games? He got his wish. Put it this way, Maroney has 417 yards and 2 catches. That smells like disappointment.

See. The no-brainer pick tripped up a lot of you people. I know it tripped me up. In fact when next August rolls around, I think I'm going to take up a less chancy past time.

Like running with the bulls or High Stakes Omaha 8-or-Better. It's less of a gamble.