THE LEE EVANS COROLLARY

by Stan, Ghosts of Wayne Fontes

What do slot machines, the IRS, Suzy Greenberg, and Lee Evans have in common? They pay off once in a while, but then they’ll rob you clean.

Lee Evans is a very fine receiver for the Buffalo Bills and year after year, he puts up solid numbers that rank him as one of the top 30 wide receivers in the league. Nevertheless, I am divulging one of my most sacred truths today in an effort to spare my good friends the wrath that is known as the Lee Evans Corollary. Never waste a roster spot on Lee Evans on your fantasy team. You might ask, why do I say this if he is in fact a top 30 wide receivers in the NFL? Surely, that warrants him worthy of at least a #3 WR starter on the team or an occasional flex start. Trust me; he goes against the cardinal rule that sets a fantasy lord (me) apart from a fantasy peasant (you) in the hierarchical classes of fantasy football. Consistency is the key and the wide receiver position is typically the toughest place to find consistency.

This theory requires you to be nimble. Clearly, there will be players who emerge and exhibit consistency on a year to year basis, but the real key to this theory is making smart late round receiver picks who will prove themselves to be serviceable #3 starters or flex players. To illustrate the point, lets take a look at three comparable wide receivers who could have been picked up around the same draft position (if not significantly lower) and exhibit relatively comparable stats.

• Lee Evans - Stats thru week 16 (54 receptions / 847 yards /5 TDs) / Average Draft Position - #41

• Hines Ward - Stats thru week 16 (71 receptions / 732 /9 TDs) / Average Draft Position - #39

• Bernard Berrian - Stats thru week 16 (67 receptions / 920 yards /4TDs) / Average Draft Position - #111

ADP source

While none of these receivers are likely to be the key starter on your team on a weekly basis, it is important to distinguish the difference as it relates to their reliability. I noticed this problem about 3 years ago when Lee Evans yet again was projected to be a top ten receiver. So, I drafted him and started him on a weekly basis. Sure, he dropped the occasional 2 TD game, but more often that not, he produced a couple catches for 20 or so yards. Worthless performances from him were not rare then and they are not rare now.

To illustrate, lets take a look at the average stats (not counting injury weeks) for each of these third tier receivers. Evans averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game this season, certainly a decent return for a later round pick. Hines Ward averaged roughly 12.5 fantasy points per week (though he was injured for 3 weeks), certainly an impressive #3, maybe even #2. Finally, Bernard Berrian averaged right around 10 points per game. So, as you can see, the stats are all fairly close and all seem like a decent start.

This is not the case. When we look closer we see that Evans output is far more volatile. Recall standard deviation from your high school or college math classes. Standard deviation is a basic measure of the dispersion of results around the average. In this case, the standard deviation represents the amount +/- you can expect the results to fall within 68% of the time. Specifically, the standard deviation of Evans' output is 8.25. More specifically, Lee Evans will likely score somewhere between 1.15 and 17.65 within one standard deviation. Translation: Lee Evans is not consistent and might shit the bed on a fairly regular basis. Hines Ward is slightly more reliable, but still volatile as well with a standard deviation of 7.6. Thus, Ward is likely under "normal circumstances" to produce results between 4.9 and 20.1. Bernard Berrian on the other hand has a standard deviation of just over 5. While Berrian is definitely the least acclaimed of these 3 players, he is by far the most reliable. His data suggests that is is likely to produce between 5 and 15 each week - more consistent results.

So, the point is not to make a bunch of excel spreadsheets before you draft, but just to take this WR consistency into account when building your WR corps. It pays off. A cursory look over a players stats should suffice. Just look at Lee Evans. He has games with 9 catches, 165 yards and a TD contrasted by games consisting of just 1 catch for 7 yards. The day will come where that 1 catch game is in your fantasy playoffs and you too will experience the Lee Evans Corollary.

(Originally published 12/26)