by BD, Staff Writer
Every year when I pick up my copy of MLB 2k for my 360 I almost always trade Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to my Tigers. And last night when I caught wind of this trade, a video game is exactly what it felt like. Under no circumstances did I think that the Tigers had a shot to land Cabrera, nevermind both he and Willis.
A lot of people around Detroit are already saying the Tigers are the favorite to reach the World Series in the American League, but they seem to be forgetting one thing: pitching wins championships. And as great as Willis was two years ago, he hasn't been that guy recently. He's arguably regressed to that of a fifth starter. On top of that you have a similar guy in Bonderman who also tends to fall apart as the season progresses. Add in the bullpen that in large part cost the Tigers a playoff berth last season and it's hard to consider them a better team that the Red Sox. Especially if the Sox manage to add Johan Santana to an already stacked rotation.
The bullpen remains the Achilles heel for Detroit as they'll be without Joel Zumaya and will be forced to once again rely on old man Todd Jones to close games. Something us Tigers fans know can be a bit of roller coaster. The argument I've already heard is that they'll outscore people, so the bullpen won't be as relevant. And while I understand the thinking, ask the Mets how outscoring people has worked out for them in terms of championships... Yeah, not so well.
Obviously, the Tigers aren't done as they'll probably try and turn gold-glove caliber third basemen Brandon Inge into bullpen help, since it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense to pay Inge to sit on the bench.
Now I've already been called a pessimist with my reaction to this deal. So I feel like I have to make it clear that I love this deal for Detroit. They've added two young superstars at the expense of their top two prospects and a handful of other young players. It's a deal they'd have been foolish to pass up.
Speaking of the prospects involved. Maybin and Miller both still need a lot of work before they're going to produce at the major league level on a consistent basis. The move to the NL will help that, but Maybin's high strikeout rate and Miller's control issues make the trade easier to understand. The emergence of Curtis Granderson as one of the league's best center fielders made trading Maybin that much easier. Mike Rabelo was heading back to the minors as backup catcher Vance Wilson will return from injury next season and outside of de la Cruz, the other three guys loss won't effect the team in the immediate future. However, after the Renteria trade this leaves Rick Porcello alone as a top prospect in the Tigers farm system.
Regardless of how all this shakes out, the Tigers had to make this move and it has me already looking forward to baseball season, as the same team I watched lose 116 games a few years ago is suddenly being called a favorite to win it all on a regular basis. And there's only one reason it all happened: hockey's salary cap. That's where Mike Illitch's money used to go. So thank you hockey as you may have single handedly made the Tigers one of the best teams in baseball.
Yesterday In Sports...
Almost...
The Trojans almost took down Memphis, but eventually fell in OT 62-58.
Wow, They Need LeBron
The Cavs lose again, this time to New Jersey 100-79.
Still Looking Overrated
Tennessee struggles to put away Chattanooga 76-70.
Still Winning
The Bucks, despite a tough schedule, continue to win as they dispatch the Clippers 87-78.
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
THROWING KNIVES: HOLY SH!T
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3 comment(s):
I could go on and on about how pitching is the key to winning championships, but no one seems to care. Did anyone, I mean anyone, not notice the lesson of the New York Yankees? There was not a better offensive team in all of baseball. But for two years they have been denied going to the "Big Dance" because of pitching. The Tigers had far less offense in '06 then they do today, yet they went to the World Series. All because of pitching.
The trades to get Renteria, Cabrera and Willis were not made to get Detroit to the World Series; they were made to put fans in the stands. You don't have to win a trip to the playoffs to keep the stands filled; you just have to put a product on the field that fans want to see. In '07 the Tigers finished 8 games out of first and did not make the playoffs, but they managed to draw over 3 million fans.
The trade still hasn't soaked in, as I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact the Tigers are actually acting as they should, like a big market team!
I'm sure the rest of the AL Central lost all bowel function when they heard the deal. IT'S THAT GOOD.
Shit, I'm still giddy over the thought of a middle of the lineup that has Miggy, Maggs, Sheff, and Guillen. That's killer...
Worst case for Detroit:
1) Rogers does not bounce back and is out of baseball by June-15.
2) Sheffield does not bounce back and does not play at all.
So Willis and Cabera are plugged in. Remember that at the time Sheffield began to slump due to physical problems the Tigers had begun to move to the front of the AL (5 games clear of Indians, 3 of Red Sox).
Cabera is a 100% replacement for Sheffield and Willis is a 150% replacement for Durbin (remember this is the worst case).
Renteria replaces Casey and hits 315 versus 275 for Casey with no fall off in power -- Casey did not hit 5 dingers in 2007.
So in the worst case, The Tigers are better than they were in 2007 when they were playing dominating baseball.
Best Case:
Rogers is effective and pitches 180 innings with 2 weeks on the DL in late July as a precaution.
Sheffield bounces back and gives the club 500 ab at full strength.
Reneteria is still there with his plusses.
Since this is the best case, the club finds a way to keep Inge -- which makes things better when hard ground balls are hit off the Roller Coaster in the 9th inning -- think 2 for the price of one instead of a basehit.
Likely case: Shef gives the club 250 ab before the shoulder wears out. Rogers pitches 150 effective innings, but remains available for play-off duty.
The pitching staff gets a lot of rest with the high powereed offense and starters that pitch 950 innings -- the bullpen is called on to pitch 100+ fewer innings than last year. Note: Bonderman pitches 200 innings and wins 17 games.
The middle relief was ok until it owre out in August.
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