BREAKDOWN: THE AP TOP 25

by Jacob, Vegas Watch

Teams are ranked in the order they appear in this week's AP poll. The first number in parenthesis is their rank in this week's Blogpoll, and the final numer is their odds to win the National Championship at Sportsbetting.com.

1. North Carolina (2, 6:1)
2. Memphis (1, 6:1)
3. Kansas (3, 10:1)
4. Washington St. (4, 25:1)
5. UCLA (5, 4:1)

I really think Memphis should be #1. They beat Oklahoma, UConn, and USC in New York, and Georgetown and Arizona at home. Besides USC, they won all of those games by at least ten points. As impressive as it is to beat Valparaiso and Kent St. by 30, UNC's resume really doesn't compare with Memphis'.

Washington St. is the outlier here; their second round loss to Vandy as a three seed last year probably isn't helping matters. But Vandy was one call away from beating Georgetown, an eventual final four team.

I have no idea why UCLA is 4:1. That's a ridiculous line.

6. Michigan St. (6, 20:1)
7. Georgetown (9, 15:1)
8. Tennessee (7, 12:1)
9. Duke (8, 12:1)
10. Marquette (10, 25:1)

Duke is 12:1 because they are Duke, and some people will bet on them no matter what. There is no reason for them to be anything higher than 20:1. After impressive road wins over Xavier and Gonzaga, Tennessee may not deserve to be 12:1, but I don't think that's terribly unreasonable.

The Blogpoll dropped Georgetown a little further than the AP did after their loss to Memphis. I think this is partially because the Blogpoll takes margin of victory into account more (see Dayton and Pitt below). But the Hoyas' resume also really isn't that impressive; I guess their best win is over Alabama? There's really not much there.

11. Indiana (11, 15:1)
12. Texas A&M (12, 60:1)
13. Pittsburgh (20, 40:1)
14. Texas (15, 40:1)
15. Vanderbilt (16, 75:1)

A team being in the top 15 yet still being only 75:1 to win it all is probably a pretty good sign that they're climbing too quickly in the polls. Talk about a weak resume; their best win is what, Georgia Tech at home?

Indiana at 15:1 also sticks out; they're going to have to beat teams like Iowa by more than three points to live up to their lofty expectations.

The Blogpoll dropped Pitt from 8th all the way down to 20th after their loss to Dayton on Saturday. There are two reasons for this. First, Pitt lost by 25 points, which is pretty unacceptable, considering it took Dayton two overtimes to beat Akron on Wednesday night. The fact that both Mike Cook and Levance Fields could be out for the entire season really isn't helping either.

16. Butler (13, 100:1)
17. Villanova (18, 75:1)
18. Mississippi (17, 100:1)
19. Clemson (22, 75:1)
20. Dayton (14, unlisted)

I kind of doubt Clemson will be ranked in either poll after Sunday. The Blogpoll already had Dayton ranked (25th) before their big win over Pitt, and they moved up 11 sports on the strength of that. They've yet to do enough to get them odds to win it all, though.

21. Arizona (24, 50:1)
22. USC (23, 30:1)
23. Rhode Island (19, unlisted)
24. Stanford (26, 50:1)
25. Wisconsin (21, 75:1)

USC is 30:1 because this guy talks a lot, I guess. Although I doubt they're not one of the top 20 teams in the country; they lost to two of the top three teams in the country by only four points each.

Wisconsin has come on strong after a somewhat embarrassing 24-point loss to Duke in November, with a big win at Texas and Wednesday night's 16-point win in Ann Arbor.