POPPING THE BUBBLE - FEB 18

by Thermocaster, The Meaningful Collateral

Hi all. Time for another installment of "Popping The Bubble", where we look at some teams riding the razor's edge of NCAA Tournament inclusion.

Last week, as you may recall, we tackled Syracuse and Houston, neither of whom graded out at the time to a berth. Well, surprise surprise, Syracuse knocked off Georgetown this past weekend. As of this point, they're in...but that could all change if they can't put together two or three more victories against their upcoming schedule. Houston lost their golden opportunity at tournament inclusion when they lost at Memphis. Now it's a waiting game for the Cougars, who don't have another quality opponent left on the schedule.

So with those two teams out of the way, who deserves a look this week? Let's delve.

SOUTH ALABAMA: The Fighting Jaguars have been getting a lot of publicity here lately, thanks in part to their high RPI ranking (and constant pimping by people like ESPN's Joe Lunardi). South Alabama has had some success here lately, so much so that former head coach John Pelphrey used the school's program as a springboard to his current position at Arkansas. But nobody cares about what they did in past years...what's the story for THIS year?

WHY THEY COULD MAKE IT: The aforementioned high RPI rating (34 overall), coupled with a victory against Mississippi State and strong showings against Vanderbilt (lost in two OTs) and Mississippi, give South Alabama the look of a team that could potentially compete against the big boys. Plus, they've been above average (7-5) in road and neutral games.

WHY THEY'RE SCREWED: Road losses to North Texas and MTSU don't exactly endear you to the selection committee. Outside of Western Kentucky (who they did beat), they haven't played a team in the RPI top 100 since December 15.

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS: South Alabama's season may hinge on this Thursday's road match-up with Western Kentucky. If the Jaguars can beat the Hilltoppers, it would give them the inside track on an automatic bid. If not, they'll have to sweat out Selection Sunday with their current resume...and I'm not sure that a win against Mississippi State is going to mean a whole lot by March 16th.

On to our next team...

OREGON: What happened to you, Oregon? Our ass used to be beautiful! The Ducks, coming off their Elite 8 run last year, started off ranked in both polls, then proceeded to go through a series of baffling games that had many commentators and observers shaking their heads. Now they sit in a tie with California (California!) for 7th place in the Pac 10 Conference.

WHY THEY COULD MAKE IT: A road win at Kansas State keeps looking more and more impressive. Conference wins over Arizona and Stanford are nothing to sneeze at. Oregon has also played the 20th-toughest schedule in Division I basketball this year.

WHY THEY'RE SCREWED: They haven't really won a meaningful game since the Stanford victory in mid-January. A loss to Washington hasn't helped their resume. Their non-conference schedule only ranked 150th in terms of toughness. Plus, they've already got 10 losses on the season, and are in danger of finishing with a losing record in conference.

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS: Much like Syracuse, the Ducks have plenty of chances to get well. Capitalizing on those chances is going to be the big issue. Road games against USC and UCLA, followed by home contests versus the two Arizona schools...that's not an easy road for anyone, particularly a team that's been as inconsistent as the Ducks. If Oregon can go 3-1 in that stretch, I like their chances. Anything less will require some magic in the Pac 10 Tournament.