2008 MLB PREVIEW: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool

The first thing to understand about this year's Phillies team is that last year's team is unprecedented, in 100+ years of the franchise.

Remember this, when you hear how Cub Fan or Indian Fan or Whatever Fan has suffered, and lo, they have suffered... the Phillies have spent entire decades without getting anywhere near a pennant race, on multiple occasions. If you were to make a cost-benefit analysis of the original team that would provide the least bang for your buck, it's Philly. Hands down. (Don't believe me? Their spring training celebrity was... John Daly. Yikes.)

But it’s one thing to root for the team that rarely wins; heck, almost everyone does that. It’s quite another to root for the team that has the look and feel of the bad guys in a by-the-books sports movie. The Phillies are, after all, the Really Most Cursed Team Ever, the Biggest Loser, the living embodiment of why institutional racism isn't only bad for the soul, but also bad for the scoreboard.

The Phillies probably were the most virulently against Jackie Robinson when he broke the color line, with manager Ben Chapman earning his place in Hell by encouraging the most vile of the taunts... and if it had worked, and his team had actually been better than Robinson's Dodgers, he'd probably still be a Buddy Ryan-esque figure in town, rather than a sad little footnote. (And yes, I am a native, so I can talk bad about ‘em. So there.)

The franchise then followed up on Chapman's ugliness by being the last team in the NL to integrate. When they finally did get a black star, Dick Allen, it all went bad in a pox on both houses pissing contest. Even the ’76 to ’80 breakthrough teams with Garry Maddox, Bake McBride and Sarge Matthews were mostly powered by Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Greg Luzinski, Pete Rose and Larry Bowa.

When you look at Ryan Howard, you are looking at the First, even more so than Rollins.

Since 2000 and the opening of their new pleasure palace, the team has managed to graduate into the lower realm of MLB+ teams, with teams like the Chicagos, San Fran, Anaheim and Seattle – to wit, enough money to compete, but not enough money to overcome a Carl Pavano-like meltdown contract. They’ve spent the cash on overpriced and underproductive free agents, mostly to try to compensate for the farm's system's failure to provide enough pitching depth, especially in the new bandbox.

They've also had their fair share of dislikable athletes, led by spelling-bee enthusiast Brett Myers, third-finger communicator Pat Burrell, and a bunch of guys who are happily no longer with the team. When Jimmy Rollins started off 2007 by saying that the Phillies were the team to beat, the National League obliged them early and often, putting them in a deep hole for not just the division, but also the wild card.

Then, the injuries hit. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both missed large chunks of time. Outfielders started dropping like flies. Myers stunk up the joint, and then was exiled to the bullpen in a move that led beat writers to laugh out loud at previously reviled manager/hick Charlie Manuel. It looked like the team was finally going to break its long pattern of coming close but not good enough by being, well, not very good at all.

And then, a stunning and improbable comeback happened. It started with Rollins, who wound up being a fairly convincing MVP despite not having the traditional numbers you'd expect from a leadoff hitter, shortstop, or MVP. Utley and Howard returned to put double-digit run potential on the board every time the team took the field. Shane Victorino gave them exceptional production. Burrell put up his usual numbers for the year, but they all came in the last four months. Aaron Rowand had the best year of his career with the stick.

The pitching still mostly stunk on days when the name Cole Hamels wasn't involved, but they got enough decent efforts to sustain them, and the bullpen picked it up. Jamie Moyer defied sanity and the calendar to pick up win after win. Teammates seemed to actually (gasp!) like each other for the first time in forever, and they even developed some warm feelings from the populace.

And while all of that was happening, the Mets cratered in a mind-blowing collapse. Whether or not they’ve permanently scarred by that is a big part of what 2008 will look like.

In the playoffs, the pitching gave out, and the buzzsaw Rockies cut through them like a knife through butter. But all in all, it was one of the most rewarding years ever to be a fan of the red pinstripes, not that any year since the 1993 Blue Snow And Big Roid Year could be said to be particularly rewarding.

In 2008, some points have changed. Rowand took the money and ran to San Francisco. Michael Bourn, a speedy OF who gave them good moments in the stretch run, was sent to Houston to bring over Brad Lidge, who's slotted to close. Myers moves back to the rotation, where he probably belonged all along. If he's effective and Hamels stays healthy and not overly distracted by the perceived slights over his contract, that’s a lot of swing and misses at the top of the rotation.

The outfield and bench look reasonable, and last year's carnival of failed closers has been culled back to steadfastly exclude heartburn candidates like Mesa and Alfonseca. While Rollins won't duplicate last year's heroics, the shortfall could easily be made up with health from Utley and Howard. Geoff Jenkins and So Taguchi are somewhat intriguing OF options. Pedro Feliz is a terrible contract, but he's got to be better than last year's third base ideas, right? Besides, the 1-2-3 hitters are all MVP candidates. That’s pretty good, really.

Can they hold off the Santana Mets in what could be MLB's best pennant race? It's hard to imagine when the back of the rotation still desperately needs 30 to 40 wins from three of the following cast of question marks: Kyle Kendrick, Clay Condrey, Freddie Garcia, Moyer, Adam Eaton, Kris Benson, JD Durbin or AAAA Arm To Be Named Later. But with the memory of last year's finish, combined with the strong holes that are in the New York lineup, there's more than enough fuel for hope. It would help immensely if Pedro Martinez continues to be broken down, or if John Maine or Billy Wagner decided to suddenly lose all effectiveness.

There's also this: the rest of the division could really, really stink on ice. At the end of the year, it won't really matter who wins the NL East... because the second team will be the wild card. Just like the AL!

Prediction: 94-68, second in the East