POPPING THE BUBBLE - MARCH 10

by Thermocaster, The Meaningful Collateral

After a week's hiatus, Popping the Bubble has returned, ready as ever to irrationally raise some fans' hopes and ruthlessly dash the hopes of others.

A lot has happened in the last two weeks. Texas went from being a 3 seed to a 1 seed to a 2 seed... maybe. Most of the Atlantic 10 went from virtual at-large shoo-ins to absolute anarchy and chaos. Ohio State died completely, only to get program CPR performed on it by, of all teams, Purdue and Michigan State.

Of the two teams we looked at last time, South Alabama made themselves into a team that almost cannot be overlooked, while Oregon consistently screwed around (granted, with cheerleaders like that, I can't really blame them). The Ducks may have done just enough by sweeping the Arizona schools this past weekend.

So as we head in to conference tournament time, let's take a look at a couple of true bubble teams and their chances:

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS: Ah, the Salukis. The Gonzaga of the midwest, albeit with less interesting players and a much slower offense. Southern Illinois has been, along with Creighton, a near staple of the tournament field since the early part of this decade. But in a topsy-turvy Missouri Valley, the Salukis have struggled, as neophytes Drake and Illinois State have stolen the thunder.

WHY THEY COULD MAKE IT: SIU managed to rack up some decent wins against RPI top 50 competition this year, including home wins versus Drake, Western Kentucky, and St. Mary's, and an (impressive at the time) neutral court victory over Mississippi State. The Salukis also went 5-2 over their last 7 games.

WHY THEY'RE SCREWED: Unfortunately, the two losses they suffered in the last seven games were in the final two contests - a home loss against fellow bubble team Illinois State, and a crushing loss in the MVC tournament against Northern Iowa. SIU also didn't exactly endear themselves throughout the regular season --- an 11-7 record in the MVC this year isn't exactly that impressive, and losses to St. Louis and Western Michigan still look as bad now as they did then.

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS: What future? Southern Illinois lost in the first round of the tourney, and now all they can do is hope. Given the fact that nearly every other bubble team will have at least a week to improve themselves, the situation looks unrecoverable for SIU...unless the NIT is something they're interested in attending.

PREDICTION: Sorry, SIU. If you'd gotten to the MVC final and lost, then I'd have been behind you 100%. But the resume at this time just does nothing for me, particularly in light of what others have done (and are about to do).

On to the next team...

ARIZONA STATE: The Fightin' Sendeks have been a bizarre group to follow this year. Obviously, Herb has done a great job rebuilding a program that was stuck in the conference cellar in a short period of time. The question is, have they done enough to get in to a weak bubble this year?

WHY THEY COULD MAKE IT: The Sun Devils do have some pretty good wins overall --- they beat Xavier in the non-conference, swept Arizona, and beat Stanford (before beating Stanford became the en vogue thing to do in the Pac 10). They also haven't lost many bad games --- a neutral court loss to start the season against Illinois, and a road loss at Washington...and that's about it.

WHY THEY'RE SCREWED: I generally like my bubble teams to finish the season with some sort of momentum. The problem with the Sun Devils is that they've only won five of their previous 14 games, a stretch that started with a seven-game losing streak in late January. They lost to a fellow bubble team (Oregon) last week. And despite going 9-9 in a strong Pac-10, they didn't really pick up many wins that weren't expected (with the possible exception of Stanford, as noted above). Additionally, their non-conference strength of schedule is atrocious.

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS: The good news for ASU is that they still have a chance to make some noise in the Pac-10 Tourney. The bad news is that they have to start off playing Southern Cal in Los Angeles --- where they lost by double digits to the Trojans back at the start of February. A win over USC would probably get the Sun Devils into the dance --- they have enough wins to justify that. A loss would be hard to come back from, particularly since ASU's RPI is so ridiculously bad (74 at last count).

PREDICTION: In my latest bracket, I've got them as one of my last four teams in. Ultimately, I think they'll make it, even though I really question whether that will be deserved.