TOP 10 YOUNG AND OVERRATED FANTASY BASEBALL PICKS

by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool

Every year, when you start to do your fantasy baseball draft preparation, you run into the same phenomenon -- the hot young MLB player that all of the preview writers are drooling over. Acquire them in your draft, and you'll quickly get the reputation as someone who really knows their stuff. Unfortunately, assuming you're not playing in a keeper league where you're looking to dominate in 2012, you've also going to lose. On with the not ready for winning time players!

10. Jay Bruce, CIN. A toolsy CF with nothing to prove at the minor league level, in a bandbox park with dangerous hitters around him in the lineup. What's not to love? Well, his veteran-loving manager (Dusty Baker, who's likely to call Shawon Dunston at any moment) for one, and his strikeout rate, for a second, and his can't drink legally yet age for a third. He's worth a pick, but not where the cognoscenti will make it.

9. Daric Barton, OAK. Hard for me to put him on this list, as I'm an A's fan, but Barton's output in 2008 will look more like what Dan Johnson should have been, not what he'll actually become. Remember, he's still very young, in a pitcher's park, and surrounded by guys that can't stay healthy long enough to contribute enough to the offense. Plus, he's also had his own injury bugs to deal with. Do you need 20 homers and 80 RBIs at first base to come with the rookie price tag?

8. Ian Kennedy, NYY. He's going to be good... eventually. But right now, he's a lefty control pitcher with a bad defense, and an organization that's going to make sure they don't (a) blow out their young arms with overwork, and (b) lose their de rigeur wild-card berth by suffering with a lot of growing pains, especially when the bullpen looks good. Let someone else overpay for 10 wins and a 4.5 ERA. (Heck, Kei Igawa might even get that, by the end of the year.)

7. Joey Votto, CIN. It's Jay Bruce II, Electric Boogaloo. Scott Hatteberg may be 38 and utterly devoid of the potential to improve on last year's numbers, but he's still an OBA machine and a gritty kind of guy. Baker may actually want to play the 24-year-old Votto, and Pal Joey's sneaky stolen base record in the minors is also intriguing. But my crystal ball says 300 ABs or less for the year, which means he's not ownable in most leagues.

6. Felix Pie, CHN. Beyond the snickers you'll get from his gruesome spring training injury is the fact that he's got no plate discipline. The Cubs may have little choice but to play him, but that doesn't mean you have to go along for the wince-inducing sub .300 OBP ride.

5. Cameron Maybin, FLA. The crown jewel in the Dontrelle Willis trade was playing in A ball last year, and at age 20 in a pitcher's park / mausoleum, he's not going to do much. Come back in a year or two, when he starts to put it together and is undervalued.

4. Andy LaRoche, LOS. OK, who really believes that Joe Torre is going to turn over full-time ABs to a 24-year-old, when he's got Nomar Garciaparra and James Loney around to clutter up the works? Besides, even if he does get the gig, Dodger Stadium will do him no favors. Pass, outside of deep NL leagues.

3. Homer Bailey, CIN. Reds Fan seem to think this guy is a top-rotation talent, but I think he's 3-to-4 years away from that, and in the worst possible situation -- trying to impress a manager (Baker, again) who likes to drive pitchers into the ground, in a bandbox, for a team that needs him to be Tom Seaver II. There's nothing here that you can't get cheaper with Johnny Cueto, assuming you just have to have a Reds SP.

2. Geovany Soto, CHN. Cub Fan can't get enough of the 25-year-old that saved them from Jason Kendall and hit .389 last year, but he hit into a lot of luck last year in a low sample size, so buyer beware. Last year saw a power explosion in the minors that might be too much to sustain, and while .280, 15 HRs and 60 RBIs isn't bad from a catcher, it's also cheaper elsewhere... and it's the Cubs, after all. If he regresses and hits .220 with 5 homers, are you really going to be that surprised?

1. Brandon Wood, ANA. Can we finally put to rest the myth that is the Angels' farm system, or is Wood the third time that proves the exception to Howie "9 walks in 338 ABs" Kendrick and Casey "11 HRs in 443 ABs" Kotchman? Wood's going to get jerked around between short and third, which rarely helps the bat, and he's another earth-friendly wind machine in terms of the whiff. Last one out in Anaheim, turn out the lights.