THE 2008-2009 SENATORS ARE DOOMED!

by Mike Jack, Staff Writer

The Ottawa Senators blew their chance at winning the Stanley Cup last season and they won't have another chance at the Cup for a while. After this season, new increased contract extensions will kick in for Heatley and Spezza that will leave them hard up for cap space.

This is a similar situation to that of the Tampa Bay Lightning after their Stanley Cup winning season. The once young and inexpensive Tampa Bay threesome (Lecavalier, Richards and St. Louis) became high priced cup winners and forced the team to dismantle in order to fall in line with the salary cap. Tampa was forced to depart with starting goaltender, Nikolai Khabibulin, the next season and Richards this year. Tampa finished last the league this season. The only difference is that Tampa won a Cup and Ottawa did not.

I did the math and here's what the Sens look like against the cap next season:

With the 13 players on the Senators last active roster that are signed for next season (Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson, Volchenkov, Phillips, Gerber, Fisher, Neil, McAmmond, Schubert, Emery, Bass and Lee) the Sens will be spending $46,475,000. The current salary cap is $50,300,000.

The Senators currently have 11 players on their last active roster that are slated for free agency on July 1st, 2008. Stillman, Redden, Robitaille, Donovan, Kelly, Lapointe, Commodore and Richardson are unrestricted free agents, while Meszaros, Vermette and McGratton are restricted.

So, if the Senators keep their 13 signed players and the salary cap stays the same, the Sens will have $3,825,000 to fill the remaining minimum 7 roster spots (an average of $546,428 per player). With the minimum salary being $500,000, the Sens would pretty much have to bring up 7 players from their farm system and not extend qualifying offers to Meszaros, Vermette and McGratton.

Let's say, best case scenario! Of their 13 signed players, the only player they'd really be willing to part with is Emery. Let's say they trade Emery for a draft pick and gain $3,250,000 on the cap and use some of that to give goaltending prospect Elliott a full time NHL back-up position for his current $757,700 salary. Emery will most likely be bought out though which would make Ottawa pay out $541, 667 against the cap each season for the next 4 seasons.

Let's also say that the salary cap goes up next season at the same rate it has been going for the last two seasons and becomes $57,700,000. That would give them $13,518,000 to fill 7 roster spots.

So, with that they would give minimum qualifying offers to their restricted free agents which costs them $2,870,120 (unless another GM [ie. Kevin Lowe] offers them more). That would give them $10,647,880! With that they could give Foligno a full time position with the club at his current salary and they'd still have $9,987,880 to sign a free agent forward and a defenseman, thus filling in their remaining roster spots. Best case scenario, with the money UFA's are going for, they may be able to sign Ryder and Eaton (or other players of similar calibur) for that much.

After all of that, here’s a summary...

Best Case Scenario:

Sens Lose: Stillman, Redden, Robitaille, Donovan, Kelly, Lapointe, Commodore, Richardson and Emery.
Sens Get: Ryder and Eaton (or players of similar calibur.)

Worst Case Scenario:
Sens Lose: Stillman, Redden, Robitaille, Donovan, Kelly, Lapointe, Commodore, Richardson, Meszaros, Vermette and McGratton. (maybe more?)
Sens Get: Nothing

Either way, the Sens going to worse off next season. They finished 7th in the East this year and things are not looking up. I think Bryan Murray’s only chance to improve his team next season may be to trade either Heatley or Spezza. You’ve heard of “Sophie’s Choice,” well this is Murray’s Choice.

If you care to comment, go ahead. I welcome debate...