I'M NOT A BELIEVER YET

by WCT, The Ship of Fools

Remember way back to the summer of 2005? It was a glorious time to be alive. We finally found out who “Deep Throat” was, the Spurs beat the Pistons in an utterly unwatchable NBA Finals, Lance Armstrong won his 7th and final Tour de France, and Oil was $50 a barrel. It was also great, for at least a short period of time, to be a Baltimore Oriole. That’s because on May 30, 2005, exactly three years ago today, the Baltimore Orioles were 31-19. That was good enough for first place in the American League East, and second-best record in the League, trailing only the eventual world champion Chicago White Sox. In fact, the Orioles held on to sole-possession of first-place into late June that season.

Then, as Scott van Pelt often says, in a quasi-British accent, it all went horribly wrong. The Orioles woke up one day, realized that they were, in fact, the Orioles, and finished the season 33-61, (yes, they lost nearly two-thirds of their games for almost three whole months) fired then-manager Lee Mazilli in favor or Sam Perlozzo (whom they would then fire in the middle of the season two years later), and plunged in the standings, eventually finishing 21 games out of first, and in second-to-last place. The only thing that kept them out of the cellar that year was the 95-loss Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Which brings me to this year, and those same Devil Rays, (note: Yes, I still call them the Devil Rays. The same reason I still call the San Diego Chargers' home stadium "Jack Murphy Stadium," and the Cleveland Indians' home park "Jacobs Field." I fear change.) who sit in first-place in the AL East and own the best record in the League at 32-22, pretty close to the mark that the Orioles had in '05. Just like in '05, the Yankees are somewhat slow out of the gate this year, and are once again looking up in the standings at an upstart club. But to paraphrase "The Wolf" from Pulp Fiction, D-Rays, "Hold on a second, lets not start sucking each other's dicks juuuust yet."

Now don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the D-Rays are destined to have an Oriole-esque implosion and finish the season 20 games below .500 near the bottom of the American League, as they are clearly an improved team, and have the horses to make some noise in the East. But if you think that they are prepared to contend for a playoff spot, and the first 54 games is indicative of how the entire season is going to go for Tampa, I think you are getting ahead of yourself. The fact is, its still early, and the baseball landscape has a way of evening itself out over the course of a six-month season. For example, D-Ray Opening Day starter James Shields is 2-3 against the supposed AL East powers (New York, Boston, & Toronto) so far, what is going to happen when some of those guys start seeing him for the second and third times? Andy Sonnenstine is 3-0 against the Yanks and Jays, but has been given more than 7 runs per game in support in those starts. Is that going to continue? What happens when he finally faces the Red Sox? Edwin Jackson was 5-15 last year and his ERAs the last four years were 7.30, 6.28, 5.45, 5.76. You'll have to excuse me if I don't think he is going to keep up the 3.50-ish pace he is at right now. And if you think that Catcher Dioner Navarro will continue to bat in the .370s and have an OPS+ in the 140s, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

The D-Rays are a nice little story, and I do not wish anything negative on them (although I do enjoy being right). But a lot of teams get off to good starts and can't keep them up. The next six games for Tampa Bay are with the 1st place White Sox (who beat them last night) and the 2nd place Red Sox, how will they do in that stretch? In two weeks they go on the west coast to play the 1st place Angels for the first time in Anaheim, how will they do out there? In September they have a stretch where they play -- in consecutive series -- the Yankees, at the Blue Jays, at the Red Sox, at the Yankees, then the Red Sox. How will they look after going through that gauntlet?

Its early sports fans, and history has shown us that a lot can happen between June and September. Just ask the '05 O's. So don't fall all over yourselves to try and jump onto this team's ever-growing bandwagon just yet.