by Jim Murphy, The Savage Science
First of all, if you're not going to sweat the $50 to watch UFC 100 live on your TV set or—the more likely scenario with the EC readership—you're incarcerated and can't get PPVs in prison make sure to follow the round by round coverage UFC 100 LIVE AT THE SAVAGE SCIENCE.
Lines are from the highly respected Internet sports book Sports-1.
FRANK MIR VS. BROCK LESNAR
In the main event gotta go with the value on Frank Mir. I know a guy who is an amateur MMA fighter in Vegas and trains at Striking Unlimited where Mir trains. He says that Mir is in *sick* shape and will destroy Lesnar. Not sure about that, but his BJJ skills are off the charts. Lesnar will probably take him down and put him on his back again. Problem is that Mir fights better off his back than any heavyweight in the world, and maybe any *fighter* in the world with the exception of Shinya Aoki. You might be able to find a price on 'Mir inside the distance' and that has a lot of interest as well. Mir is just such a smart fighter I'm thinking that he'll wait for Lesnar to make a mistake and catch him in some submission that Brock has never seen.
Lesnar is a physical freak of nature and no doubt he's worked hard on his submission defense in preparation for this fight. No matter how hard he’s worked, however, he won’t be prepared for all of the tricks a BJJ black belt like Mir can throw at him.
FRANK MIR +180 OVER BROCK LESNAR
GEORGES ST. PIERRE VS. THIAGO ALVES
Now that Anderson Silva has been exposed as more 'sizzle' than 'steak', you can make a good case that Georges St. Pierre is the best 'pound for pound' fighter in the sport. Actually, he's been the best 'PFP' in my opinion for quite some time but since much of the MMA media swallows anything that Dana White says hook, line and sinker he hasn’t received the credit he's deserved. Ironically, now that the rest of the sport is waking up and giving GSP his 'pound for pound' props he may have some competition from the petulant but brutally talented Nick Diaz.
Alves is no joke, and trains with American Top Team in Florida. On paper, you could argue that Alves is a good value at +260 but I just can’t pull the trigger on him against GSP. Alves has lost three times to mid level opposition, all three coming by stoppage (2 submission, 1 KO). While I don’t have any interest in laying -320 on GSP, Alves looks to me like a fighter that isn't quite ready to make the huge leap to championship level competition. There have also been questions about Alves' conditioning and he's struggled in the past to make weight. He missed the cut off against Matt Hughes and earlier in his career tested positive for a banned diuretic which indicates a bit of last minute desperation in his weight cut. That's a huge problem here since he’ll be going five rounds against one of the best conditioned athletes of any sort walking the face of the earth. GSP wins it, but can’t get involved at the price.
MICHAEL BISPING VS. DAN HENDERSON
Two schools of thought here—either Bisping will handle the much older Henderson, or else the accomplished vet Henderson will expose Bisping. While I’m not sure which one will transpire, I do know that this is a much closer fight than the line indicates. This is a classic value play, where you’ve got an opportunity to take one side of a 'coin flip' at a preferential price.
MICHAEL BISPING +175 OVER DAN HENDERSON
Here's the best value play on the undercard:
MAC DANZIG VS. JIM MILLER
Mac Danzig +160 is a good play. Miller has never impressed me much, while Danzig is off back to back losses and fighting for his professional life. He got caught in a submission by Josh Neer the last time out and has lost four of his L6 fights but aside from Neer (who is a very good fighter) it been top of the food chain competition--Clay Guida, Clay French (maybe he has a problem with guys named 'Clay'?) and DREAM badass Hayato 'Mach' Sakurai.
MAC DANZIG +160 OVER JIM MILLER
And don't miss our LIVE UFC 100 EVENT COVERAGE on Saturday night! It's the best live fight narrative on the planet and only at THE SAVAGE SCIENCE.
Editor's Note: There is also a great article on Brock Lesnar by Paul Heyman (yes, that Paul Heyman) that you should check out here.
by Jim Murphy, The Savage Science