by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
As I was reading Simmons' annual "NBA Trade Value" column today, two things made me pretty giddy. First, he ranked Dwight Howard no. 2 in trade value right now. In other words, as of right now, the only other guy with more trade value (considering age, ceiling, cap hit etc. etc.) would be LeBron James.
So, my Magic made a right choice by picking Howard over Emeka Okafur a few seasons ago and the leap that Howard is making right now to that elite level is pretty amazing to see. But the other thing that brought a smile to my face was the fact that the original Orlando Magic big man, Shaq, was totally left off the list.
Two seasons ago, Simmons still considered Shaq to be a top-15 guy in terms of trade value. Now, he's not even top-50. That's quite a drop if you think about it and frankly, I don't mind that at all.
If I were to make a list of players or coaches that have brought me the most pain during my years of following sports, Shaq would have that number one position locked up pretty securely. Up until a few years ago, I would have to have put Michael Jordan first, but recent events have catapulted Shaq over MJ.
And if you're wondering who would be on that list, it's pretty extensive but I'm going to just put the guys that really stick out.
- Kirby Puckett and Jack Morris (Kept the Braves from winning the World Series in '91)
- Jim Leyritz (F*ck this guy. His homerun in game 3 turned the series around and kept the Braves from repeating as champs)
- Chris Burke (Walk-off homerun in the 18th inning! eliminated Atlanta in the '05 play-offs)
- The entire Jacksonville Jaguars team from '99 (Beat Miami 62-7 in the play-offs in what would be Dan Marino's last game)
- Ricky Williams (Abandoned Miami in '04. Went from league's leading rusher to league's biggest joke. The team still hasn't recovered)
- Nick Saban (Offered Dolphin fans hope with arrival in '05. Picked Culpepper over Brees heading into the '06. Disappeared into the night afterwards and opened the floodgates for this horrible season)
- Dave Wannstedt (Ricky got the shit started, Saban completely opened the floodgates but it was Wannstedt who laid the current foundation of this team)
- KirbyFreeman/KyleWright (The two clowns attempting to play quarterback for the Miami Hurricanes the past couple of seasons. They made Brock Berlin look like Carson Palmer)
- Hakeem Olajuwon (Led Houston team that swept Orlando in the '94 season Nba Finals)
- Michael Jordan (His Bulls swept the Magic in the '95 Eastern Conference Finals and things have never been the same, but I'll have to explain a bit more)
So yes, I started following the Magic around the '93 season. By the time '94 came around, Orlando had two of the league's brightest young stars in Shaq and Penny Hardaway and combined with the likes of Dennis Scott, Nick Anderson and Horace Grant, they became one of the funnest teams to watch.
That team was "the boss" like Liston would say. That intro was the boss. The green mascot was the boss. The fact that they made it to the Finals was also very bossy.
In the Finals however they got outplayed by a much more experienced Houston Rockets team led by Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. Houston swept Orlando but there was no reason to believe that this team wouldn't be back regularly in the Finals. Heck, they even beat Jordan on the way to making the Finals..
But Jordan regained his swagger the next season and the '95-'96 Bulls were playing on levels we hadn't seen before. They dominated their way to a 72-win regular season and swept Orlando in the Conference Finals and went on to beat the Supersonics for the title as Jordan got his 4th ring.
In the off-season, Shaq choose the money and bolted to L.A. I can't say that I blame him but I'd like to call this "the Curse of Shaq" because Orlando has never been the same.
Penny was left to carry the team alone but he got frustrated and asked for a trade a few seasons later. Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill were supposed to be the next big duo but it never materialized as Hill suffered season ending injury after season ending injury. McGrady got bitter and demanded a trade and the ensuing Steve Francis experiment also failed.
And even now as we have the next big star in Dwight Howard, I'm still not going to be happy until this team makes out of the first round of the play-offs.
Now, you can argue that Jordan would have kept Orlando from winning any titles in those next 3 years, it would have still been fun to watch that battle. Orlando would have been right there with Chicago along with the Pacers, Heat and Knicks. Jordan would have probably still come out on top, but we couldn't even see Orlando compete anymore after Shaq left.
Shaq went to L.A. and got a new sidekick in Kobe and in '99, they found themselves in the Western Conference Finals against the Trailblazers. The series went to game 7 and since I had a feeling that Portland would pull it out, I put a big amount of money on the Blazers to win.
Now here's where things get really painful. The Blazers put in an epic choke performance during the 4th quarter and the Lakers pulled off the biggest game 7 comeback of all-time. I lost my money, Shaq was back in the Finals and he would go on to win 3 titles in a row. You can imagine how that made me feel....
But don't worry, the big guy decided to add a bit more salt to my already gaping wound. After his relationship with Kobe soured, Shaq left L.A. and came back to Florida. But no, he wasn't returning to Orlando. Nope, he was joining the cross-town rival Heat to team with the next budding young star, Dwayne Wade.
And yes, you know how this story ends up. Shaq and Wade led the Heat to the Finals in the '05-'06 season against the Dallas Mavericks. I decided to put cash on the Mavericks to win the series because I just couldn't imagine that Shaq could possibly bring me anymore pain than he already had.
Dallas took a 2-0 series lead but Miami came back to win the next 4 and Shaq had his 4th ring. He finally won one in Florida, but not with Orlando. I mean, how brutal is that??
Imagine the joy that Bengals fans must have felt when they drafted Carson Palmer. Now imagine Carson leaving the Bengals after their play-off season to join the 49ers. He leads San Fran to a few titles while the Bengals flounder and then returns to Ohio, only not to Cincy but to Cleveland as he leads the Browns to a championship. That's basically the equivalent of what I had to deal with.
So yeah, excuse me if I'm enjoying his rapid decline just a tad too much. He hasn't given me many reasons to smile over the past 10 years or so.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
THE RUNDOWN: I DON'T LIKE SHAQ VERY MUCH
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
THE RUNDOWN: HE SURELY DID NOT MAKE THE LEAGUE PLAY-OFFS
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
With some fantasy football leagues already going to their play-offs next week (depending on the league size), I thought I'd drop the "gambling" angle for just 1 week and instead mock Peter King's fantasy football team again.
Now, why do I love torturing Tubby Maguire so much you ask? Because it's fun. Because it's necessary. Because no one else would voluntarily choose a name like this...
Team Name: Montclair Wombats
Yes, he actually called his team the "Montclair Wombats". I'm not making this up. I seriously couldn't make this up even if I wanted to. I guess the "Montclair Butterflies" or the "Montclair Fuzzy Animals That Will Make Little Children Giggle" were already taken.
Either way, let's see at how Fatty McButterpants faired with his draft back in August...
Round 1 (8 overall)
Marshawn Lynch, RB
Bills coordinator Steve Fairchild, a Mike Martz guy, sees Marshall Faulk in Lynch.
Too bad Fairchild didn't see that Brian Westbrook was available. Lynch is having a pretty solid season with 870 total yards and 6 Td's but he has missed the last 3 games and if you see the running back depth that Pillsbury Doughboy has, it becomes pretty brutal.
Who he could have picked : Brian Westbrook, Peyton Manning.
Yeah, he passed on Westbrook to take a rookie 8th overall. Peter King, picking 8th overall used that vital first pick on a rookie, while Westbrook is having a monster season so far with 1600 yards and 11 TD's...
Round 2 (17) Adrian Peterson, RB As you can see, I'm not afraid of drafting rookie running backs.
Props to Aunt Jemima here. Great pick but the fact that Peterson missed some time pretty much meant a losing streak for Big Ragu.
Round 3 (32) Jon Kitna, QB This is what I project for him in 2007: 4,467 yards, 25 touchdowns -- and 18 picks.
If Kitna picks up the pace over the last few games of the season, he'll finish close to those numbers. But he's fallen back down to earth after that hot start and the Lions are basically done.
Who he could have picked : Tony Romo, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates.
Eh, I'll cut him some slack on this one. Could have been better, but could have been much worse. Decent pick by Chuck E. Cheese.
Round 4 (41) Lee Evans, WR Someday he'll have a 95-catch season with his good pal, quarterback J.P. Losman.
Lee Evans needs to be beaten with a cane. And Peter needs to be beaten with a rusty cane for actually thinking this. Expecting Lee Evans to have a 95-catch season is like expecting Chris Henry to be a good example for young children. You want it to happen, but it probably won't.
Who he could have picked : Plaxico Burress, T.O., T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Randy Moss.
Yeah, good thing he passed up on Owens and Moss to pick Lee Evans. That's the mark of a champion right there.
Round 5 (56) Tatum Bell, RB I'll be surprised if he doesn't gain 1,400 yards and score eight TDs in Detroit.
Tatum Bell : 5 games, 182 yards and 1 Td. This is the guy that Peter picked in round 5 folks.
Who he could have had : Romo, Hines Ward, Tony Gonzalez, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson.
Let's see. Running back who's as durable as a crippled butterfly and who's a product of the Denver system...or Hines Ward???. Well, I'll take the fragile running back of course! It's not like I need a solid # 2 receiver in case Lee Evans decides to go live in a cave again....
Bonus points for expecting Tatum Bell to get 1400 yards in a Mike Martz offense where the run basically gets ignored.
Round 6 (65) Jason Witten, TE The best thing that ever happened to him: Jason Garrett's becoming a coach.
Touche Garfield. Much like the Adrian Peterson pick, I don't have much to say here.
Round 7 (80) Deion Branch, WR Seattle got fleeced in the trade, but I still think he'll catch 65 balls this year.
Branch has missed more games (4) than he has scored touchdowns this year (2). He could be the captain of this team based on that fact.
Round 8 (89) Jerricho Cotchery, WR He became Chad Pennington's target of choice as 2006 wore on.
Jerricho Cothery : 11 games, 1 Td. For those of you who are keeping score, Peter's top 3 receivers have combined for 5 touchdowns so far this year.
I'll remind you again that he passed up Reggie Wayne, T.O., Randy Moss, Hines Ward, Houshmandzadeh and Larry Fitzgerald in previous rounds. Moss and T.O. both have had 4 Td games this season. Better yet, Moss had a 4 Td half against Buffalo. That's as much as Evans and Branch have combined this entire season.
Round 9 (104) Jaguars D The best defense no one pays attention to. Ever hear of Bobby McCray?
SI's senior writer, telling us that no one pays attention to Jacksonville's defense. That's like saying that no one pays attention to Scarlet Johansson's tits.
Round 10 (113) Nate Kaeding, K The Chargers will be a top-three scoring team, and he'll succeed on 80% of his FG tries.
Why not wait a few more rounds before you take a kicker? You got 6 more picks to go...
Who he could have picked : Big Ben, Jay Cutler, Donte Stallworth.
Hey, I could take Big Ben in case Jon Kitna flops around like a dead fish. Nah, f*ck it, I'm taking a kicker!
Round 11 (128) Chad Pennington, QB Healthy, he'll throw for 3,000 and be a nice backup if Kitna blows up.
Actually, he threw for 1317 yards to go along with 9 Td's and 7 picks. He was benched after 7 games or so. What a keen eye for talent you have Colonel Sanders.
Round 12 (137) Anthony Gonzalez, WR Peyton's slot receiver always, always sees four or five chances a game.
Anthony Gonzalez : An average of 2.2 catches a game for a combined 334 yards and 0 Td's.
Who he could have picked : Gonzalez's teammate Dallas Clark. Peyton's 3rd option in the passing game and the current team leader with 9 Td's. Peter is the only one that would take Anthony Gonzalez (a rookie) over Dallas Clark..
Round 13 (152) DeDe Dorsey, RB The Colts' Joseph Addai insurance. And the team really likes him.
Wrong. The insurance is Kenton Keith. The Colts liked Dorsey so much that the released him right before the season started. Again, spiffy call by Count Chocula....
Round 14 (161) D.J. Hackett, WR Late in 2006, Hasselbeck looked to him more than any other Seattle wideout.
D.J. Hackett : 5 games, 343 yards and 3 touchdowns. Another guy that has missed more games than he has scores. The sad part is that Hackett has more Td's than all of his other wide receivers...
Round 15 (176) Sammy Morris, RB See DeDe Dorsey two rounds ago. Insert "Pats' Laurence Maroney insurance."
The Peter King curse striking again. Morris was off to a great start but he was done for the year after just 6 games. If you want to blame someone for that, blame Chester Cheetah over there.
Round 16 (185) Ted Ginn Jr., WR Poor man's Devin Hester, but with better receiving skills. Could score 10 TDs.
NO ONE thought that Ginn could score 10 Td's this year. He's got 2 Td's right now...should have 4 actually but still. NO ONE, not even Cam Cameron could have thought that this guy would get more than 5 Td's this season considering the circumstances.
So, we got 1 guy on injured reserve, 1 guy who was released before the season started, 2 guys that have been benched, 4 guys who have missed more games than they have found the endzone, 4 rookies, a kicker that was taken too high, 2 good picks and 2 solid picks.
Add those variables together and you get the recipe for weekly ass-reamings. The type of ass-reaming that would be illegal in Guam.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
THE RUNDOWN: I WOULD LOVE TO BET AGAINST THIS GUY
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
Some people out there are very bright. They can do basic pre-school math, they have something that resembles logic and and they make rational decisions that usually end up being right on the money.
Folk like this usually are pretty good gamblers as well. They take trends, stats and other stuff into consideration and get some sort of advantage out of it.
Then you have someone like Sportsline senior NFL writer Pete Prisco. He's basically the exact opposite. He takes fact and logic and violates them with a cheese grater. Prisco is one of my favorite targets over at Blown Coverage and this is exactly why.
I know that no one is perfect and that people are going to be wrong from time to time, but Pete takes wrong and has a violent sexual romp with it. He embraces it. He takes it on dates. He buys it fancy dresses. He brings flowers for it.
After Eli Manning put up his epic stinker against the NFL's worst pass defense last Sunday, everyone started to pile on Manning and you can definitely understand why. But not to worry Eli, Pete's here to defend your below average career numbers.
"Let the piling on Eli Manning begin.
He's an easy target. And he does deserve plenty of ripping for his horrid play in the New York Giants' 41-17 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. There's no way to sugarcoat the fact that he stunk it up in throwing four picks, three returned for touchdowns.
But don't rush to judgment and say Manning can't play. That's what the New York media wants to do. That's what some national writers want to do."
See, first of all, no one is rushing to any judgment. Manning has played in 52 regular season games and two post-season games. He's been New York's starter since 2004. No one is rushing to a judgment when said opinion has been formed after 52 regular season games.
Manning's career record as a starter is 27-23. He's 0-2 in the play-offs and even though New York went 11-5 in '05, they had that epic 2-6 slide to end last season and this season they've basically sucked against the good teams and got a bunch of their wins against the bottom feeders.
"Look at the facts. Counting this season, he has thrown 63 touchdowns passes in his past 42 starts. You can't do that if you aren't any good. He has thrown 46 interceptions, which isn't good, and some of that is because he tends to get jumpy in the pocket because his offensive line struggles."
The patented Prisco contradiction. He's good, but he does things that are obviously not good.
"The Giants' tackles aren't very good. That's a recipe for pass rushers in your face and Manning simply will not take the sack.
He throws it instead. He has to learn to take the sack.
But let's not bury the kid. He's completing 60.4 percent of his passes this season, which is a career high. A week ago against the Lions, he was 23 of 34 for 283 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He had a passer rating of 100.7 and the media was singing his praises."
Actually, he's completing 58.5 % of his passes this season. He's got 16 Td's and 15 picks so far and a qb-rating of 75, right around his career average.
Now, those numbers are pretty simplistic, so I'm going to get a little geeky on you guys. The Football Outsiders rank their quarterbacks using DPAR (points scored by a qb compared to a replacemt level guy) and DVOA (average value per play).
The simple version: DPAR means a quarterback with more total value. DVOA means a quarterback with more value per play. Easy right? Good.
These are the top 10 qb's so far this season based on their DPAR and DVOA.
1. Tom Brady
2. Brett Favre
3. Derek Anderson
4. Carson Palmer
5. Tony Romo
6. Peyton Manning
7. Drew Brees
8. David Garrard
9. Jeff Garcia
10. Matthew Hasselbeck
Eli Manning comes in at number 26. Some guys that are in front of Eli on that list : Joey Harrington, Sage Rosenfels, Brodie Croyle, J.P. Losman, the benched Chad Pennington and the ghost of Daunte Culpepper.
He has a DVOA of -8.3 %. Philip Rivers, the guy who was traded for Eli and who's been having a seemingly horrible season still has a DVOA of +12.3% and ranks 12 spots ahead of Eli on that list. Make of that what you will.
"One game, one horrible game, shouldn't change the way people think about him. There are those questioning whether he's the long-term answer. Hey, has anybody looked around the league lately to see the list of guys playing?
Of course he's the long-term answer.
But he does play in New York. And his name is Manning, which means more scrutiny than most."
One game didn't make people think differently about Eli. It just basically cemented the opinions even more. Going back to those Football Outsiders rankings, Eli finished ranked 17th among quarterbacks last season behind guys like Damon Huard, Jon Kitna, Mark Brunell and Matt Leinart.
In 2005, the season that New York went 11-5, Manning ranked 18th among qb's. In his rookie season, he ranked 36th.
36, 18,17, 26. If the Giants want below average as their "long term answer," fine by me.
And yeah, let's not forget that Elisha is being below average after pouting and demanding to be traded on draft day, something that forced the Giants to give up three draft picks and Philip Rivers to get him.
But hey, Prisco's impressed by all that. Sportsline's senior NFL writer folks, showing consistency that would make Cal Ripken blush....
Monday, November 26, 2007
RANDOM OBSERVATIONS : DOLPHINS @ STEELERS, SECOND HALF EDITION
by Davey, Blown Coverage
Here's what you need to know about the first half. Neither team has had a snap in the redzone and it's only the second game this season that has gone scoreless to halftime. Thrilling...
I really wish I had more to write right now but I don't. Ricky Williams is hurt, Joey Porter is making plays and the same story lines keep getting beaten into the ground.
Whoever scores first in the second half will win. I have no doubt about that. Either way, time to resume the madness...
RANDOM OBSERVATIONS : DOLPHINS @ STEELERS, FIRST HALF EDITION
by Davey, Blown Coverage
I'm going to be honest here. The Sean Taylor incident has me pretty down and I don't even feel like watching a game right now. That said, bad weather has delayed the start of the game by 25 minutes meaning that I'll have even more trouble waking up for work tomorrow. Getting fired on my 2nd day is not something I want to happen but the odds have increased dramatically right here.
As for the game, I had been saying for a while now that the Steelers could be the team that would spoil New England's party but then they went out and lost to the Jets. That means that they'll be ready to donkey punch my Dolphins tonight. Awesome.
Either way, Pittsburgh is missing a few starters, the field is horrible and the fact that Miami manages to keep their games pretty close before blowing them in the last few minutes makes me think that this could be a close game after all. Ricky Williams is back, Joey Porter is back in Heinz Field and Kornheiser's comb over is in mid-season form. Time to get things going...
Saturday, November 24, 2007
DOES HE ACTUALLY BELIEVE THIS?
by Davey, Blown Coverage
So, I was surfing the interwebs and I came across this post by Miami Herald sports columnist Armando Salguero about how the Dolphins would be in better shape if Nick Saban had stayed on board.
Salguero tried to argue that Miami, LSU, Michigan, Saban and Cam Cameron would all be in better places right now if Saban had elected to stay at Miami.
Now, I don't know if he wrote this just to have fun and to stir shit up in the comments section or if he genuinely believes the garbage that he spewed out in this post.
Here's the thing. On the one hand, Saban went 8-8 and 6-10 in his two seasons as Miami's coach and on paper it looks way better than 0-10. Saban also had a pretty good draft in '05 that brought in a bunch of starters including Ronnie Brown, who showed everyone this season that he fits into that elite back category.
If Saban stayed, the team would probably also not be winless right now. That's one way of looking at it, but let's be realistic here.
Saban quit on this team after giving them his word. That's really not the guy I would want as a coach. And he would not be rebuilding right now (what this team desperately needed) and Miami would be plodding along to another 6-10 / 9-7 type season while achieving absolutely nothing.
But hey, let's see how Armando argues this one...
Nick Saban should have waited one more year, should have buckled his proverbial chin strap and stayed with the Dolphins and struggled and suffered through one more season. And if he had everyone would be better off.
Yes, I just wrote that. Everyone, Saban and Cam Cameron and the Dolphins and LSU and Michigan, would be better off for 2008.
Go on. We're waiting...
How would Saban be better off? Well, the fact is he is in deep do at Alabama now coming off back-to-back losses to Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe. His team is underachieving and fans once loyal to him are getting the idea the guy is something of a strange bird based on comments he made Monday.
Saban described the humbling defeat against ULM inappropriately, mentioning the 9-11 terrorist attacks and Pearl Harbor in talking about how his team must rebound like America did from a "catastrophic event."
"Changes in history usually occur after some kind of catastrophic event,'' Saban said. "It may be 9-11, which sort of changed the spirit of America RELATIVE TO catastrophic events. Pearl Harbor kind of got us ready for World War II, and that was a catastrophic event.''
And this is seriously the guy you want to be leading this team right now?
And that leads me to the reason everyone would be better off if Saban had stayed. If he had stayed, and I remind you it was HIS choice to leave, Saban probably would be struggling with the Dolphins this year. But he would likely be preparing himself for a return to LSU if/when Les Miles flies the coop for Michigan.
Oh, so you want him to stay, have a pathetic 5-11 type year and then bolt to LSU. And then Miami would have to go through that entire process again of finding a new coach and implementing a new system.
I may be wrong here, but I'm really happy that Cameron came in with a rebuilding plan before another year was wasted.
Think of it. If Saban were Miami's coach, Miles would almost certainly become Michigan's coach because the folks at LSU would gladly let Miles out of his contract in order to get Saban back. And it is that contract, which has a $1.25 million buyout clause if Miles goes to Michigan, that is the only thing that might keep Miles at LSU.
If Saban went back to LSU, he would be returning to a program stocked with talent -- which Alabama was not. He'd be returning to a place where he is adored and his foibles are embraced -- which he is finding Alabama is not. He'd be going back to an open and seemingly unlimited checkbook.
So Michigan would get the coach it wants and LSU would get the coach it wants.
It sounds like LSU is willing to let Miles go to Michigan. They didn't need Saban to come back for that.
So how would that make things better for the Dolphins? As I just stated, Saban would be struggling with the Dolphins this year as any coach would. But do you think he'd be winless? His Miami teams started slow both years, but they hit a stride midway through the season. It didn't last and it didn't make them good long-term or short-term.
But they were not WINLESS. Not even close.
True, but they'd still be that same underachieving bunch, getting older and not doing anything worth remembering on the field. But hey, they would go 7-9! Long live Saban!
And I don't think they would be winless this year under Saban. And how would that be better for Miami long-term?
Well, it was clear last year that the big-name coaches the Dolphins coveted initially -- Pete Carroll and Bill Cowher -- were not ready to move or get back into coaching. Those close to Cowher believe he'll be ready to return to coaching this year. And if the Dolphins were in the market for a coach this year, following Saban's departure to LSU, I am certain they would be players in the chase for Coach Chin.
Maybe. You don't know that. So basically, you'd prefer to have another lethargic season with that same veteran group, go 6-10, have Saban bolt and cross your fingers to hopefully land Cowher.
Meanwhile, Cameron is already here and his plan is already in motion. Granted they're 0-10 and horrible right now, but you need to get really bad before you get really good. The Cowboys also went 1-15 in J.J.'s first season.
Besides, in last Sunday's game against Philly, Miami had a rookie qb, a rookie fullback, a rookie center, a rookie wide receiver, a 2nd year wide receiver, a 2nd year safety, a rookie punter and a 2nd year defensive tackle all STARTING.
That means youth. That means rebuilding. That means that this team is one or two drafts away from being a contender and having a great core of players to build around.
Furthermore, I put to you that had Saban stayed in Miami this year, held out one more inglorious season, Cam Cameron would be better off as well. If Saban had stayed, Cameron would still be in San Diego in some capacity because he had only one other head coach interview last year and Arizona didn't ask him back for a second talk.
So he would not have left San Diego. He would, worst case, be San Diego's offensive coordinator, which given the talent there is pretty attractive. And if things had played out as they did, Cameron would almost certainly have inherited the head coaching job when Marty Schottenheimer was fired.
Again, you don't know this. San Diego fired Shottenheimer after a 14-2 season. They let Cameron walk. They let Wade Phillips walk. They went out and got Norv fuckin' Turner. San Diego didn't really make the most rational of decisions there Armando...
So Camerons would be San Diego's head coach and the Dolphins would be in good position to hire a good head coach with a winning track record because they could chose between a semi-retired Cowher and an unemployed Schottenheimer as their next coach.
Alright. Fine. I'll play along. Even if Camerons (sic) became the head coach, what do you think would be more gratifying? Inheriting a loaded Chargers team and have people say that he's winning only because he took over Shottenheimer's loaded roster? (a la Phillips in Dallas and Tomlin in Pitt).
Or, take over a bad Miami team, tear it down, start to rebuild it and slowly mold a winner out of it? I think option number 2 sounds pretty good and pretty rewarding.
So to recap if Saban had stayed in Miami this year, the Dolphins might not be winless and in 2008:
Huh. We're still in 2007 Armando. And if you mean that Miami will go winless next season, then you should be giving us lottery numbers.
Saban would be coaching LSU.
Yeah, the guy who compares a loss to 9-11 and Pearl Harbor.
Cameron would be coaching San Diego.
Maybe.
And either Cowher or Schottenheimer could be coaching the Dolphins.
Maybe and maybe.
That's better all the way around, I think.
Discuss ...
Read the comments. Your readers seem to agree that this piece of garbage is the worst thing you've ever written.
(Originally published 11/22)
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
THE RUNDOWN: OFFICE POOLS SUCK
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
Take a person that has above average football knowledge and take someone who doesn't know the difference between Carson Palmer and Carson Daly. Now, have these people make head-to-head NFL picks and I assure you that Joe Football Fan will crap his pants.
Simmons is losing to his wife and I'm pretty sure that he also lost to her last season. Jay Mohr is losing against Nikki Cox over at Fox Sports and I'm pretty sure that Dr. Z is getting his ass handed to him by that model chick over at SI.
If you don't believe me, try it yourself. Find a random 7 year old girl, have her make some NFL picks and proceed to crumble before her might.
You might know how the West Coast offense works and you know who's the # 4 defensive tackle on the Detroit Lions roster, but she'll still dropkick you in the throat. She'll dropkick you in the throat and give a thumbs up when she's done.
And that's why I hate office pools. I hate office pools about as much as I hate getting violated by Mark Mangino. It doesn't matter if you know what Jay Cutler's jock strap smells like, you will lose to Janice from the Human Resource Department.
See, we had an office pool that went something like this. Every week you would make your picks on the spreads and the game totals and the weekly winner would get 100 bucks. The weekly totals would be added up and the overall winner at the end of the season would get a nice chuck of cash.
Now, there was this guy that was obsessed with the pool. He had been working for years at the company but he had never tasted the sweet smell of victory. He would study the teams, study the trends and he used fancy statistics, yet every week he got a swift kick in his balls.
I felt genuinely sorry for him and I tried helping him sometimes, but every week brought yet another letdown. Here was this poor guy that didn't get respect from anyone, that probably got denied sex on a nightly basis and he couldn't even win a damn pool one week in his life.
Who were winning you ask? Well, the fine women that knew as much about football as I do about bio-chemistry.
This phenomenon intrigued me and I started doing some research on how these ladies were making their picks. I walked around, asked questions, observed their tendencies and it was pretty depressing to say the least....
Me : "So, how did you assume that Green Bay would not cover the spread?
Lady : "I dunno, 9 points just seemed like a lot."
Me : "The Panthers huh..."
Lady : "Yeah, Panthers beautiful."
Me : "Why are you taking the under here?"
Lady : "The guy on the tv said that the Dolphins are bad. That means they won't score a lot."
Simple, like pre-school math. Others were making their picks based on uniform colors, team names, and random patterns in their coffee.
If you have read "Blink" by Malcom Gladwell, you will know his explanation for this. Sometimes, the more you know about something and the more you think about it, the more you will screw up.
The mind seems to make better decisions when it "thin slices" and makes snap judgments. And even though it's not applicable everywhere, it is very applicable in sports and especially when trying to predict winners.
If I knew this then, it might have better prepared me for what was yet to come. I had won two weeks out of the 17 and I was the overall leader for most of the season. With 3 weeks to go, I had a pretty decent lead and my erection was visible from pretty far away.
I just needed to be "average" over those last 3 weeks and I would be bathing in poon as the overall winner. Well, as you know, life likes to occasionally kick me in the ribs to remind me who's in charge and I ended up losing by 2 points.
I folded like Philip Rivers and the fine lady in accounting kept randomly filling her sheets based on simple crap and she won in the end by 2 points. I challenged her to a fight but she was too busy counting the ridiculous amount of money that she just won.
As for the obsessed loser guy, I saw him a few months ago. He quit the job and became a rent-a-cop. A rent-a-cop that didn't even have a flash light. The poor man obviously never recovered...
Sunday, November 18, 2007
RANDOM OBSERVATIONS : REDSKINS @ COWBOYS, SECOND HALF EDITION
by Davey, Blown Coverage
That first half was pretty lame. There were 2 touchdowns, 2 missed field goals and about 18 bad snaps by Andre Gurode. Well, those did add some excitement but everything else has been pretty flaccid.
The 'Skins are without Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers in that secondary and I'm still waiting for Dallas to really take advantage of that.
Either way, Terry Bradshaw is done screaming and we can continue with the second half..
RANDOM OBSERVATIONS : REDSKINS @ COWBOYS, FIRST HALF EDITION
by Davey, Blown Coverage
I may be wrong here but it feels like I have seen every Cowboys game this season and today I'll be seeing Tony Romo's grin again.
Dallas is on a roll while the 'Skins will be lining up a smurf, a goldfish and Verne Troyer at wide receiver. Oh, and they will be without Sean Taylor as well so that's not really good.
I have Dallas picked to win and for fantasy purposes I'll be keeping a close eye on Clinton Portis, Julius Jones and Patrick Crayton. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman are our announcers and it's time to get this thing underway...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
GOOD OBSERVATION, PETE
by Davey, Blown Coverage
I was bored and I went looking for some Pete Prisco stupidity over at CBS, and wouldn't you know it, he came through again.
He was asked if the Packers could win a Super Bowl while their rushing game is last in the league and his answer was odd to say the least...
Yes. There's an old adage that you have to run in December and January to win. That's not true. You have to be able to throw to score and run to win. By that, I mean throw it early and get a lead and then run it with the lead.
Pete Prisco, telling us that you have to be a pass first team to win a Super Bowl. Without really researching this, I already started to disagree with him so I decided to go look at some numbers. I went back and looked at the last 10 Super Bowls and how the participating teams had faired that season in the run game.
Now, I know you might think that a sample size of 20 teams and 10 games is a bit small, but I though it would be relevant for the era we're in right now.
The Packers were pretty balanced in '97. Favre had a good year but so did Dorsey Levens as he also made the Pro Bowl that season. Levens finished the season with 1435 rushing yards and 7 Td's.
Team rushing ranks : 10th in attempts, 12th in yardage and 25th in touchdowns.
The Broncos ranked higher in the rush game than the pass game that season and even though Elway had a great year, it was Terrell Davis who was just going crazy.
Davis finished with 1750 rushing yards and 15 Td's.
Team rushing ranks : 6th in attempts, 4th in yardage and 5th in touchdowns.
It's no coincidence that Elway finally got a ring after Davis burst on to the scene. Elway would get his second ring in '98 and once again, it was Davis leading the way with an absolutely amazing season.
Bonus Fact : Davis' Super Bowl line : 30 carries, 157 yards, 3 Td's and the MVP award.
The Falcons got a monstrous rushing season from Jamal Anderson as he finished with 1846 rushing yards and 14 Td's. Anderson carried the ball a whopping 410 times during the regular season and sadly, he wasn't the same runner after that anymore.
Team rushing ranks : 4th in attempts, 6th in yardage and 7th in touchdowns.
As for Denver, Terrell Davis had one of the all-time great rushing seasons in '98. 2008 yards, 21 touchdowns and a 5.1 average per rush
Team rushing ranks : 2nd in attempts, 2nd in yardage and 1st overall in touchdowns.
Bonus fact : Davis surpassed 100 yards rushing in the Super Bowl for the second year in a row and as a team, the Broncos had 3 rushing Td's in that game.
The Titans were led in '99 by Eddie George and his 1304 rushing yards and 9 Td's. Steve McNair also added 8 rushing touchdowns in the 11 games in which he played.
Team rushing ranks : 12th in attempts, 13th in yardage and 3rd in touchdowns.
The '99 Rams were one of the great offenses of all-time and even though they loved to pass, to could run it a little as well. Marshall Faulk was setting records and had 1381 rushing yards to go along with 7 Td's on the ground that season.
Team rushing ranks : 17th in attempts, 5th in yardage and 14th in touchdowns.
The Giants had Kerry Collins under center and could throw the ball a little, but Tiki Barber and Ron Dayne combined for over 1700 rushing yards and 13 Td's.
Team rushing ranks : 6th in attempts, 11th in yardage and 8th in touchdowns
Should I even tell you about this Ravens team? They had one of the best defenses of all time and they ran the ball. Trent Dilfer and Tony Banks were taking snaps under center for this team so they needed everything that the defense and that running game could give them.
Jamal Lewis and Priest Holmes combined for over 1900 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Team rushing ranks : 5th in attempts, 5th in yardage and 25th in touchdowns.
Bonus fact : Jamal Lewis went for 100 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Tiki Barber was held t0 49 yards and 0 scores.
The 2001 Rams fall into that category of pass first, but just like the '99 team, they had a pretty decent rushing attack. Faulk and Trung Candidate combined for over 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns but sadly, Mike Martz seemed to be allergic to the run at times.
Team rushing ranks : 22nd in attempts, 5th in yards and 1st in touchdowns.
Yes, I know the Pats took of with the arrival of Tom Brady, but the main receivers were Troy Brown and David Patten. The rushing game for its part was pretty effective.
Antowain Smith, Kevin Faulk, J.R. Redmond and Marc Edwards combined for 1600 yards and 14 Td's on the ground.
Team rushing ranks : 8th in attempts, 13th in yards and 7th in touchdwons.
As for the Super Bowl itself, the Pats had more rushing yards than the Rams and had a more balanced attack. Kurt Warner threw 44 passes while Faulk only got 17 carries and a lot of people will still argue that the Rams would have won if Martz ran the ball more than he did.
Here we finally get a team that ranked a lot higher in the passing game than in the running game. Rich Gannon threw for a ton of yards but the running game did put up some yardage.
Charlie Garner, Tyronne Wheatly and Zack Crockett combined for over 1500 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground.
Team rushing ranks : 24th in attempts, 19th in yardage and 5th in touchdowns.
The 2002 Bucs had a great defense but their passing game was surprisingly good as well. Brad Johnson had a solid season and the pass offense ranked a lot higher than the rushing offense.
Mike Alstott, Aaron Stecker and Michael Pittman combined for about 1400 yards and only 5 touchdowns on the ground.
Team rushing ranks : 25th in attempts, 27th in yardage and 32nd in touchdowns.
The Bucs won behind their great defense, but they had a big edge in the rushing department in the Super Bowl. Tampa finished with 150 yards rushing and 1 Td, while Oakland finished with only 19 yards and 0 scores.
The Panthers were a run first team this season. Their passing game was solid but they relied on defense and rushing to win.
Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster combined for almost 1900 yards on the ground and 8 Td's.
Team rushing ranks : 3rd in attempts, 7th in yardage and 24th in touchdowns.
The Patriots did really more on the passing game in this season than their previous Super Bowl winning year. The passing offense was one of the league's best and the run game ranked more towards the bottom.
Antowain Smith, Kevin Faulk and Mike Cloud combined for about 1400 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Team rushing ranks : 12th in attempts, 27th in yardage and 25th in touchdowns.
Just like the 2002 Bucs, New England ranked better during the regular season in the pass game, but they won the rushing match-up while winning that Super Bowl. The Pats rushed 35 times for 127 yards while Carolina only ran 16 times for 92 yards.
The Eagles loved to throw the ball in 2004. The passing attack ranked way higher than the rushing attack as Donovan McNabb had a phenomenal season.
Brian Westbrook and Dorsey Levens combined for about 1200 yards and 7 Td's rushing.
Team rushing ranks : 31st in attempts, 24th in yardage and 23rd in touchdowns.
As for the Pats, this was the season they brought in Corey Dillon and the shift went from pass, to run.
Tom Brady had a good year but Dillon exploded for 1635 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Team rushing ranks : 5th in attempts, 7th in yardage and 8th in touchdowns.
The Pats won the Super Bowl and it should be no surprise that they won the rushing match-up as well. They ran the ball more than the Eagles, went over the 100 yard mark on the ground while Philly was held to just 45 yards.
Seattle was a very good rushing team in 2005 and relied more on the rush than the pass. Shaun Alexander had that huge year with 1880 yards and 27 touchdowns.
Team rushing ranks : 7th in attempts, 3rd in yardage and 1st in touchdowns.
The Steelers were almost just as good at rushing the ball and relied on it even more than the Seahawks in '05.
Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis, Verron Haynes and Deuce Staley combined for over 2000 yards and 17 Td's.
Team rushing ranks : 1st in attempts, 5th in yardage and 5th in touchdowns.
Bonus fact : The Steelers rushed more, had more yardage and scored 2 rushing Td's on way to their victory over the 'Hawks.<
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