by Neate Sager, Out Of Left Field
It figures that it wouldn't be too long before the story of the summer, so-called, Brett Favre's potential return to the NFL, was something you could gamble on.
The folks over at BetUS Sportsbook have to be commended for whipping up all manner of Bretting lines - but having the restraint and decency not to offer up wagers such as, "Will his return make John Madden tear up on air?" (Think of the potential Madden/Peter King parlay!) They also could offered odds on Favre's heir apparent, Aaron Rodgers, going Ryan Leaf on a reporter at some point during the season if he's shunted back to clipboard-carrying duties.
That being said, most of the bases are covered.
It starts out simple -- odds are 10/11 on Favre returning, 10/11 on him not returning. If he's coming back, it's 1/10 that it would be in Green Bay, 5/1 that he signs with another team.
They've also accounted for the element of addng to the torture that the fans of the Packers' rivals in the NFC Norris (NFC North, to those of you who insist on formality) are going through as Favre sits on his lawn tractor in Mississippi talking to Yoric's skull about to play or not to play. (OK, the real story is whether the Packers give him his freedom, but I'm a sucker for pretentious, pretty obvious literary references.)
Guess which teams has the shortest odds on being Favre's potential destination, besides the Packers. That's right. The Minnesota Vikings -- my Minnesota Vikings -- and the Chicago Bears are each 2-1 comers to land No. 4. There's no over/under on how many Packers jerseys would be set aflame if Favre went to either team, however.
Among the longer shots, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 20-1. It would be longer, but there's a chance that Jon Gruden is fixing to be the NFL's first coach to put six quarterbacks on the field all at once. The Patriots have the longest odds. (What would the odds be of Favre signing with New England and successfully drop-kicking an extra point, the way Doug Flutie did in 2006?)
For those of you who think ol' Brett has a bright future on TV (hey, even Joe Montana got a shot as a studio analyst -- there was even a movie about it, called While You Were Sleeping), ABC/ESPN is the betting-line favourite among the networks, at 1-2. Next up is Fox at 3-1 -- that's what being slathered in Favre-love will do to a network's rep -- and NBC is a more remote 5-1, since the set of Football Night in America is starting to resemble the big dance production in a Bollywood movie.
At the end of the day, there's no getting past the fact smart people have set the line at 2-1 for Favre to pull on the Vikings' sacred purple.
It's irresistible. Favre apparently wants to play, because he's 38 years old (football old, but not real-life old). He doesn't know what to do with the rest of his life. Most of his social circle is in football and they're all off getting ready for training camp. It's the same feeling many of us felt in September the first year after we were out of school. The Packers don't want him. Their hated rival has most of the pieces in place for an outside shot at a run to the Super Bowl, except for a quarterback (In Tarvaris We Trust!).
Of course, the main reason for a Vikings fan to hate the idea of No. 4 wearing purple and gold is what would happen if the Vikes actually got back to the Super Bowl. Daily Norseman, a go-to Vikes blog, pointed this out the other day. In some scenario where Favre joins the Vikings and they go to the big game, the media coverage would be All About Brett. Never mind that it would be similar to John Elway's two championships with the Broncos, where his job was mostly to convert third-and-longs in order to keep Terrell Davis on the field.
It wouldn't be about Adrian Peterson having a 1,800-yard season or Jared Allen setting a single-season sacks record without having a friend on an opposing team take a dive for him in the final week of the season. Granted, Vikings fans are used to life's ironies by now.
Last but not least, Favre-haters also take note -- BetUS' odds on the Packers winning the NFC title and/or the Super Bowl dropped after his retirement announcement. No doubt a lot of you would have figured otherwise.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
INSTEAD OF GUNSLINGER, LET'S CALL HIM GAMBLER
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
YOU CAN BET ON WHETHER T.O. FAILS HIS DRUG TEST
by DCScrap, on 205th magazine
I kid you not.
In case you missed it, to, as I like to call him, missed his scheduled drug test and now sports betting sites are getting involved. Take BetUS for example. They just sent me this email (several misspellings corrected on my part)...
Will he test positive? What happens if he does? Will the Cowboys suspend him? What will this mean for the season? Looking for answers to questions like these, but most fervently wondering if T.O. will fail any drug test, fans are turning to the largest, most successful and accurate sportsbook on the web, BetUS.com. Analysts at the site posted odds on the outcomes of future T.O. drug tests.
Analysts at BetUS.com posted the following odds Terrell Owens Drug Tests.
Will Terrell Owens Fail A Drug Tests This Season?
Yes: 4/1
No: 1/2
How do get the job of "analyzing" whether a football player fails a drug test anyway?
So, do you think he will fail a drug test? Do you care? Are the odds of him failing a drug test too high? Too low? Would the odds of him being a cancer in the locker room be similar? Am I done asking questions?
Sunday, March 16, 2008
TOP 11 SIGNS YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS PICKING AN NCAA BRACKET
by DMtShooter, Five Tool Tool
11. You are on a first-name basis with the guy at your local pawn shop
10. You're reading this in a hope of getting some actual insight
9. Memphis being a #1 seed stuns you, in that you were unaware that there was a team in Memphis
8. Your sleeper picks are Arizona State, Dayton and Ohio State
7. When in doubt on a pick'em game, you inevitably go with the cooler sounding mascot
6. Strength of cheerleader squad means more to you than strength of conference (this also means you may be a sports blogger)
5. You think RPI is an engineer school
4. You keep forgetting whether Kevin Love or Tyler Hansbrough is the white guy (shh...)
3. This is the year, you are convinced, that a 16 seed wins
2. You know too much, which means you'll fail to pick at least 2 out of 4 #1 seeds to make it to the Final Four
1. You're not Denise from Accounting, who knows nothing, somehow wins every year, and will be found dead in a dumpster some day for it
Sunday, February 3, 2008
THE PROPHET'S SUPERBOWL SIDE AND TOTAL
by The Prophet, ProphetFighting
Most of you here at Epic Carnival know me as "the future of fightsport journalism"(TM). You may be surprised, however, to find out that I've been a professional sports handicapper for nearly two decades. Now, I'm not one of those guys who you'll hear screaming about my "LOCK OF THE CENTURY" or my "100,000 STAR GAME OF THE YEAR" on a scorephone. Nor will you see me waving my arms around on some infomercial on the higher numbered cable stations at 5 AM on a Saturday morning.
This is just a hunch, but I'm of the opinion that a few of you out there in EC-land may enjoy wagering on football games from time to time. Some of you may even be degenerate gamblers. In any case, its commonly known that the Super Bowl is the biggest single betting event of the year. Sportsbooks pull out all of the stops when it comes to marketing and promoting around the event. Likewise, the bottom-feeders of the sports tout industry come out of the woodwork to try and convince you that this is "THE STRONGEST PLAY IN SUPER BOWL HISTORY" or that they've got "INSIDE INFORMATION THAT WILL ABSOLUTELY DETERMINE THE OUTCOME OF THE SUPER BOWL". Of course once you've dropped $50 on a call to their 900# or handed over your Visa card digits they've already "won" and don't give a rats ass about the outcome of the actual game.
One of the things that I've done over my sports handicapping career is that every year I give away my Super Bowl side and total free of charge. I do this for a couple of reasons--for one, I know that many of my clients and members of the American sporting public want to bet on the Super Bowl. If they want an expert opinion on the game I'm happy to give them one that won't cost them a dime. That way they don't have to wade through the scores of crooks, scam artists and wanna-bes trying to find an actual serious handicapper. I won't guarantee you that this is a "LOCK"--there's no such thing. I don't have "AMAZING INSIDE INFORMATION" but neither does the guy screaming on the scorephone. What I will guarantee is that I've done as much or more analysis of this game than any of these people.
Another reason that I do this is to emphasize that the Superbowl is just another wagering opportunity in an endless series of wagering opportunities. I've just looked at the Don Best screen and I've determined that, indeed, there will be games to bet on come Monday and every day after that. One of my friends who works for an offshore book told me that in excess of 90% of their players' funds were in action last Super Bowl Sunday which is downright silly. Don't "unload" on the Super Bowl as you'll find plenty of stronger wagering opportunities down the road.
So I invite all of you EC readers to check out my Super Bowl side and total. It's posted on a new sports handicapping blog called BetWWX.com. You'll have to go there to read it, but there's no trickery here--no passwords, we don't want your email address or anything. Just click and read....you'll even get some history of my sports handicapping career free of charge. Here's the intro:Are the New England Patriots the greatest team in NFL history? That question is very interesting to me on a personal level since I placed my first sports bet on the last “greatest team in history” aka the 1985 Chicago Bears. I was living in Utah and I got some Mormon kid to bet against me. He was a huge BYU fan who hated Jim McMahon; I hated BYU but was a huge McMahon fan. This guy hated McMahon so much that he had no interest in the fact that the dominant “Monsters of the Midway” were 10 point favorites over the wildcard Patriots. He offered to bet $20 that New England would win straight up, to which I readily agreed. Of course the Bears won easily and I cashed my first “ticket”.
So click the link below to read the rest and good luck!
THE PROPHET'S SUPER BOWL SIDE AND TOTAL--FREE, GRATIS, COMPLIMENTARY
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
ANOTHER CORRUPT OFFICIAL
by Brian P. Foley, The College Baseball Blog
The Big Ten is going to have to answer some questions about football official Stephen Parmon. He has recently run into problems with bankruptcy, child abuse, sexual harassment, and sexual assault. The Big Ten does background checks on their officials so how did these four cases get let go by the conference?
The bankruptcy charge is the most glaring in terms of his job. This is an official who ran up a $429,000 worth of liabilities including two casinos before filing for bankruptcy. I know that it was legal gambling that he was involved with but just to be fooling around in a casino as an official is a big red flag. This year his crew was suspended for the final week of the season because Joe Tiller of Purdue filed an official complaint against them after a November 3rd game against Penn State. Before the Big Ten could suspend them, they officiated a highly competitive game on November 10th which saw them make a very poor call on Illinois' first touchdown. The crew was then suspended for the November 17th weekend.
The sad part of this story is that the bankruptcy story is not even the most important thing here. Stephen Parmon was accused of sexual harassment when working with the Chicago Police Department which ended up getting him fired in 1996. He has been accused of sexually abusing his 19-year-old niece and beating his wife at the time in a court hearing during 1994. The worst charge that Parmon has faced is beating three of his girlfriends' kids in 1997 with an electrical cord.
I believe that the Big Ten should be held accountable as these are some serious charges and situations that Mr. Parmon has been involved in. If you are interested in the full story you can click here for a full report from Yahoo Sports.
THE RUNDOWN: I DON'T LIKE SHAQ VERY MUCH
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
As I was reading Simmons' annual "NBA Trade Value" column today, two things made me pretty giddy. First, he ranked Dwight Howard no. 2 in trade value right now. In other words, as of right now, the only other guy with more trade value (considering age, ceiling, cap hit etc. etc.) would be LeBron James.
So, my Magic made a right choice by picking Howard over Emeka Okafur a few seasons ago and the leap that Howard is making right now to that elite level is pretty amazing to see. But the other thing that brought a smile to my face was the fact that the original Orlando Magic big man, Shaq, was totally left off the list.
Two seasons ago, Simmons still considered Shaq to be a top-15 guy in terms of trade value. Now, he's not even top-50. That's quite a drop if you think about it and frankly, I don't mind that at all.
If I were to make a list of players or coaches that have brought me the most pain during my years of following sports, Shaq would have that number one position locked up pretty securely. Up until a few years ago, I would have to have put Michael Jordan first, but recent events have catapulted Shaq over MJ.
And if you're wondering who would be on that list, it's pretty extensive but I'm going to just put the guys that really stick out.
- Kirby Puckett and Jack Morris (Kept the Braves from winning the World Series in '91)
- Jim Leyritz (F*ck this guy. His homerun in game 3 turned the series around and kept the Braves from repeating as champs)
- Chris Burke (Walk-off homerun in the 18th inning! eliminated Atlanta in the '05 play-offs)
- The entire Jacksonville Jaguars team from '99 (Beat Miami 62-7 in the play-offs in what would be Dan Marino's last game)
- Ricky Williams (Abandoned Miami in '04. Went from league's leading rusher to league's biggest joke. The team still hasn't recovered)
- Nick Saban (Offered Dolphin fans hope with arrival in '05. Picked Culpepper over Brees heading into the '06. Disappeared into the night afterwards and opened the floodgates for this horrible season)
- Dave Wannstedt (Ricky got the shit started, Saban completely opened the floodgates but it was Wannstedt who laid the current foundation of this team)
- KirbyFreeman/KyleWright (The two clowns attempting to play quarterback for the Miami Hurricanes the past couple of seasons. They made Brock Berlin look like Carson Palmer)
- Hakeem Olajuwon (Led Houston team that swept Orlando in the '94 season Nba Finals)
- Michael Jordan (His Bulls swept the Magic in the '95 Eastern Conference Finals and things have never been the same, but I'll have to explain a bit more)
So yes, I started following the Magic around the '93 season. By the time '94 came around, Orlando had two of the league's brightest young stars in Shaq and Penny Hardaway and combined with the likes of Dennis Scott, Nick Anderson and Horace Grant, they became one of the funnest teams to watch.
That team was "the boss" like Liston would say. That intro was the boss. The green mascot was the boss. The fact that they made it to the Finals was also very bossy.
In the Finals however they got outplayed by a much more experienced Houston Rockets team led by Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. Houston swept Orlando but there was no reason to believe that this team wouldn't be back regularly in the Finals. Heck, they even beat Jordan on the way to making the Finals..
But Jordan regained his swagger the next season and the '95-'96 Bulls were playing on levels we hadn't seen before. They dominated their way to a 72-win regular season and swept Orlando in the Conference Finals and went on to beat the Supersonics for the title as Jordan got his 4th ring.
In the off-season, Shaq choose the money and bolted to L.A. I can't say that I blame him but I'd like to call this "the Curse of Shaq" because Orlando has never been the same.
Penny was left to carry the team alone but he got frustrated and asked for a trade a few seasons later. Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill were supposed to be the next big duo but it never materialized as Hill suffered season ending injury after season ending injury. McGrady got bitter and demanded a trade and the ensuing Steve Francis experiment also failed.
And even now as we have the next big star in Dwight Howard, I'm still not going to be happy until this team makes out of the first round of the play-offs.
Now, you can argue that Jordan would have kept Orlando from winning any titles in those next 3 years, it would have still been fun to watch that battle. Orlando would have been right there with Chicago along with the Pacers, Heat and Knicks. Jordan would have probably still come out on top, but we couldn't even see Orlando compete anymore after Shaq left.
Shaq went to L.A. and got a new sidekick in Kobe and in '99, they found themselves in the Western Conference Finals against the Trailblazers. The series went to game 7 and since I had a feeling that Portland would pull it out, I put a big amount of money on the Blazers to win.
Now here's where things get really painful. The Blazers put in an epic choke performance during the 4th quarter and the Lakers pulled off the biggest game 7 comeback of all-time. I lost my money, Shaq was back in the Finals and he would go on to win 3 titles in a row. You can imagine how that made me feel....
But don't worry, the big guy decided to add a bit more salt to my already gaping wound. After his relationship with Kobe soured, Shaq left L.A. and came back to Florida. But no, he wasn't returning to Orlando. Nope, he was joining the cross-town rival Heat to team with the next budding young star, Dwayne Wade.
And yes, you know how this story ends up. Shaq and Wade led the Heat to the Finals in the '05-'06 season against the Dallas Mavericks. I decided to put cash on the Mavericks to win the series because I just couldn't imagine that Shaq could possibly bring me anymore pain than he already had.
Dallas took a 2-0 series lead but Miami came back to win the next 4 and Shaq had his 4th ring. He finally won one in Florida, but not with Orlando. I mean, how brutal is that??
Imagine the joy that Bengals fans must have felt when they drafted Carson Palmer. Now imagine Carson leaving the Bengals after their play-off season to join the 49ers. He leads San Fran to a few titles while the Bengals flounder and then returns to Ohio, only not to Cincy but to Cleveland as he leads the Browns to a championship. That's basically the equivalent of what I had to deal with.
So yeah, excuse me if I'm enjoying his rapid decline just a tad too much. He hasn't given me many reasons to smile over the past 10 years or so.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
THE RUNDOWN: OFFICE POOLS SUCK
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
Take a person that has above average football knowledge and take someone who doesn't know the difference between Carson Palmer and Carson Daly. Now, have these people make head-to-head NFL picks and I assure you that Joe Football Fan will crap his pants.
Simmons is losing to his wife and I'm pretty sure that he also lost to her last season. Jay Mohr is losing against Nikki Cox over at Fox Sports and I'm pretty sure that Dr. Z is getting his ass handed to him by that model chick over at SI.
If you don't believe me, try it yourself. Find a random 7 year old girl, have her make some NFL picks and proceed to crumble before her might.
You might know how the West Coast offense works and you know who's the # 4 defensive tackle on the Detroit Lions roster, but she'll still dropkick you in the throat. She'll dropkick you in the throat and give a thumbs up when she's done.
And that's why I hate office pools. I hate office pools about as much as I hate getting violated by Mark Mangino. It doesn't matter if you know what Jay Cutler's jock strap smells like, you will lose to Janice from the Human Resource Department.
See, we had an office pool that went something like this. Every week you would make your picks on the spreads and the game totals and the weekly winner would get 100 bucks. The weekly totals would be added up and the overall winner at the end of the season would get a nice chuck of cash.
Now, there was this guy that was obsessed with the pool. He had been working for years at the company but he had never tasted the sweet smell of victory. He would study the teams, study the trends and he used fancy statistics, yet every week he got a swift kick in his balls.
I felt genuinely sorry for him and I tried helping him sometimes, but every week brought yet another letdown. Here was this poor guy that didn't get respect from anyone, that probably got denied sex on a nightly basis and he couldn't even win a damn pool one week in his life.
Who were winning you ask? Well, the fine women that knew as much about football as I do about bio-chemistry.
This phenomenon intrigued me and I started doing some research on how these ladies were making their picks. I walked around, asked questions, observed their tendencies and it was pretty depressing to say the least....
Me : "So, how did you assume that Green Bay would not cover the spread?
Lady : "I dunno, 9 points just seemed like a lot."
Me : "The Panthers huh..."
Lady : "Yeah, Panthers beautiful."
Me : "Why are you taking the under here?"
Lady : "The guy on the tv said that the Dolphins are bad. That means they won't score a lot."
Simple, like pre-school math. Others were making their picks based on uniform colors, team names, and random patterns in their coffee.
If you have read "Blink" by Malcom Gladwell, you will know his explanation for this. Sometimes, the more you know about something and the more you think about it, the more you will screw up.
The mind seems to make better decisions when it "thin slices" and makes snap judgments. And even though it's not applicable everywhere, it is very applicable in sports and especially when trying to predict winners.
If I knew this then, it might have better prepared me for what was yet to come. I had won two weeks out of the 17 and I was the overall leader for most of the season. With 3 weeks to go, I had a pretty decent lead and my erection was visible from pretty far away.
I just needed to be "average" over those last 3 weeks and I would be bathing in poon as the overall winner. Well, as you know, life likes to occasionally kick me in the ribs to remind me who's in charge and I ended up losing by 2 points.
I folded like Philip Rivers and the fine lady in accounting kept randomly filling her sheets based on simple crap and she won in the end by 2 points. I challenged her to a fight but she was too busy counting the ridiculous amount of money that she just won.
As for the obsessed loser guy, I saw him a few months ago. He quit the job and became a rent-a-cop. A rent-a-cop that didn't even have a flash light. The poor man obviously never recovered...
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
HUNGARIANS REVIVE SOCCER TEAM WITH GAMBLING, BEER
by Sterling Gould, More Credible
Grab your wallet, grab a set of Solo Cups for you own using, and get ready to party... Hungarian Soccer style:
Two Hungarian entrepreneurs have proposed a novel solution in Hungary's struggle to wake national soccer from two decades of slumber: slot machines.
Hungary, once unbeatable under Ferenc Puskas's "Golden Team", have not qualified for a major international tournament since the 1986 World Cup. They have started installing hundreds of soccer-themed slot machines in pubs around the country and donate part of the proceeds to youth teams.
"More and more teams have got in touch saying they want to take part in this," Marton said.
Punters can win small prizes such as ashtrays or tickets to games if they get lights to flash next to the same player on both circles. They can win an additional prize of one to four beers depending on which number lights up on the display.
The Hungarian Football Association (MLSZ) said it welcomed the project though it was not officially taking part in it.
Yeah, you know you're feeling it. You wish they would have something like this at an Eagles game. But instead of exchanging your money for small prizes like ashtrays, you'd exchange for some of Britt Reid's "secret stash" (i.e. cocaine, heroine, and tranquilizers for small, barnyard animals).
And mas cerveza por favor! It's a fiesta everytime you crank it up with Hungary. Keep a fresh tap in every section please and let the kids come by to quench their thirst with the sweet nectar!
THE RUNDOWN: THE MEMORABLE STEREOTYPES
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is a weekly "gambling" column based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
I have worked at a bunch of different departments during my time at the books, but for sheer hilarity and awkwardness, nothing beat taking phone calls from those degenerate betters out there. I have experienced every season, every sport and in the process I basically came across every type of gambler that exists.
So today, I'm going to share with you some of my favorite stereotypes. These guys are the memorable ones that still plow through my mind like Mr. Met with Anna Benson.
1. The Asian who you can't quite understand.
This is the token Asian guy that calls and who's accent is so bad that your ears are bleeding midway through the convo...
Him : "Gimme to teang palay Steelahs and Chahgahs and ovah Clebaland"
Me : "You mean, a two team parlay with the Steelers and the Chargers and the over in the Cleveland game?"
Him : No.
Me : "......................"
2. The guy that wants the complete "rundown" of games.
I guess I called this column "The Rundown" because this was the client that I hated the most. He's the guy that calls Friday night and asks the spread, the total and the moneyline on every college and pro football game that's on the schedule that weekend. If the baseball season is still kicking it, this guy will also want all the baseball lines complete with starting pitchers.
Bonus points for when he calls back an hour later to see if anything has changed since his last call.
3. The guy who's never happy.
Man, this fellow has some issues.
a. The wife drives him crazy.
b. He's denied sex on a daily basis.
c. He has debt up to his eyeballs.
d. The job has been raping him for years now.
e. The kids suck him dry every chance they get.
f. He probably lives in Cleveland.
g. He had a lot of money on the Trailblazers in game 7 of that Lakers series.
He seriously sounds like he could have a massive heart attack at any moment during our convo...
Him : "Who's pitching for the Royals tonight?"
Me : "Brian Anderson"
Him : "No he's not. Greinke is pitching. Don't you know anything?"
Me : "There was a pitching change sir. Anderson will be the starter tonight."
Him : "I hope you die."
Me : "That's very kind of you sir...."
4. The guy who deliberately wants to get you fired.
F*ck this dude. F*ck him in the elbow. He's the fellow that will do some very strange things and when you try to correct him, he'll ask for you supervisor and he's going to make sure that your ass will be on the street within the next 5 minutes.
Him : "What's going on in baseball tonight?"
Me : * spend the next 5 minutes giving lines, moneylines, totals, and pitchers*
Him : "........um.........hmmmmmmmmmmmm.........hmmmmmmmmmm.........hmmmmmmmm
* another 5 minutes passes *
Him : "Yeah, give me the Cardinals".
Me : "Sir, they're already in the top of the second inning"
Him : " Well, if it didn't take you an eternity to give me the lines, I could have some action on that game..."
Me : "Sir, the game was already in progress when you called."
Him : "So now you're getting smart with me huh. That's it. Give me your supervisor. I'm sure he'd love to hear about you calling me a liar and a thief."
Me : "................................."
Bonus points for when he calls from his car phone and tells you to call his house so that you can leave the lines on his answering machine.
5. The guy that wants your advice even though that's not allowed.
This gentleman is unsure about himself and he's very cautious when he makes his picks. Either that, or he's a cheap d*ck who's really afraid to lose money.
Him : So, who do you like today?"
Me : Eh, I can't really say sir. I'm not allowed to do that."
Him : Hmmm. Well, what's your favorite team?"
Me : "The Dolphins."
Him : "They're not doing very well since that entire Ricky Williams thing went down huh..."
Me : "No, they might as well be handing the ball off to a paralyzed goldfish"
Him : "I guess I'll be taking the Packers today then. Thanks."
Me : "..........................."
6. The suck up.
I usually got very confused with this guy. This is the gentleman that will tell you how great you are and how you are by far the best worker in that place.
Even though I like to think that I'm the balls, I always wondered why I was getting showered with so many sweet nothings...
Now, there could be a few reasons for this.
a. He's a lonely man.
b. His life is emptier than mine.
c. He genuinely thought that I'm the best one in there and he was just being honest and not blatantly homosexual.
d. He needs some sort of medical attention.
e. His way of being sarcastic is slightly awkward.
f. He likes to spend his days pretending to be a Boxer while wearing a silly hat.
g. I should probably get a restraining order because he wants to violate me kidneys.
7. The chatterbox.
He's a mix between the suck up and the dude that wants your advice, only he never makes a play. If the suck up confuses me, then this guy scares the Eric Mangini out of me.
He'll call, he'll specifically ask for me and he'll spend the next 10 minutes making small talk, then laugh uncontrollably, contemplate suicide and suddenly hang up without making a play. Nope. Nothing awkward about that...
8. He who needs action on whatever is going on.
This one always amused me. I'm thinking that this guy has a serious addiction and that he probably needs some sort of rehab. He'll wager on anything. Women's field hockey, Turkish soccer, midget bungee jumping. You name it, he'll have some action on it.
That said, this guy does get annoying when it's late and you want to go home and he's still wagering on obscure college basketball games involving teams you probably never even heard of.
Bonus points for when he's doing sexual favors on the side of the street, just so he can keep feeding his addiction.
Friday, November 9, 2007
AGAINST THE SPREAD: TAKE THE UNDER IN THE BEARS GAME
by DCScrap, Editor
No Patriots this week. Probably good news for bookmakers across the country (and world). My question this week is: How are you doing betting the NCAA this year? Are all the upsets ruining your fun? My take on the weekend is to bet the under on the Bears/Raiders epic battle, but let's see what our "experts" have to say about the upcoming weekend on the gridiron.
The Prophet
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
NCAA Football
SOUTH CAROLINA +6’ OVER FLORIDA
Here’s the kind of inside information you can only get from a handicapping professional such as myself: South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier places a great deal of importance on this game. The Gamecocks beat the Gators outright at home in Spurrier’s first year and then fought a vastly superior Florida team tooth and nail at “The Swamp” before losing by a single point and easily covering as a +13 underdog. While I realize that not all of the players on the Gamecock squad could be mistaken for Mensa members (and I’m looking at you Blake “Math is Hard” Mitchell) they’re smart enough to realize this—if they don’t put up a credible effort in the head to head matchup with “the ol’ ball coach’s” former employer it doesn’t bode well for their future in the South Carolina football program.
Tim Tebow is a decent rushing QB, and if you had any questions about the South Carolina run defense they should have been answered in the negative by the 511 yards on the ground allowed to Arkansas last week. While I can’t offer any real justification for that sort of stat you have to keep in mind that those were two potential NFL running backs in the Hog backfield last week. Florida doesn’t have those kind of playmakers and you have to think that the Gamecock defensive front will be extremely motivated to exert a better effort than they did last week.
While the biggest game of the year for Gamecock supporters is the annual rivalry with Clemson, for the coach and the team this is it. Florida is a big money burner as a road favorite (1-7 ATS run) and Steve Spurrier will have this bunch of Gamecocks playing like rabid wolverines (and not the Michigan kind). With South Carolina on the receiving end of a beatdown last week at Arkansas and Florida having administered a beatdown at home against Vandy last week it couldn’t set up better for us. Gamecocks win outright and that’s all we need…SOUTH CAROLINA 24-21
VIRGINIA +3’ OVER MIAMI-FL
VIRGINIA/MIAMI-FL UNDER 41’
I hate to be predictable but I’d rather be predictable and profitable than innovative and poor. If I have to explain the totals play on Miami-FL/Virginia UNDER again then you people aren’t paying attention. In deference to new readers I’ll go through the basics: Miami is a team with a solid defense but no playmakers on offense. The totals on their games are still *fairly* high—perhaps due to their reputation as a powerhouse. Here’s the reality: they’re on a 10-23 UNDER run overall. They’re 7-18 UNDER when favored and have gone UNDER in 15 of their L18 home games. Virginia has their own UNDER tendency to keep in mind—they’ve gone UNDER in 15 of their L20 conference games. I keep waiting for the totals on Miami games to get low enough where I’m no longer interested in playing them UNDER but as of yet it hasn’t happened. We’ll keep milking it for as long as we can.
And the side play—once again, it’s a case where the favorite is laying points based on the reputation of their program. In reality, I’d at least be looking at this play if UVa was favored by this price. Virginia has covered the last two meetings head to head—they hung with a far superior ‘canes team in 2005 losing by 8 as a 17’ dog. Last year they won—surprise—a boring, low scoring game in Charlottesville by the score of 17-7 as a +3 home dog. Based on the average line value assigned to the home team there’s been some adjustment in the price—when you see a team favored by 3’ at home it essentially means that on a neutral field the game would be a toss up. And on a neutral field Virginia would *still* be the better team and certainly has the more productive offense. And for those of you worried about the Miami home field “advantage” check these numbers out: over the L3 years the Hurricanes are 10-23 overall, 7-18 as a favorite, 7-14 in conference, and 3-15 at home including dropping 5 of their L6. They’ve failed to cover in 4 opportunities as a favorite in ACC play this year and they won’t do it here either. UVA wins a snoozer by a score of 17-10.
WAKE FOREST +9 OVER CLEMSON
Here’s a good handicapping lesson that will serve you well in life. First, let me give you some quick background. The past few weeks have been insane for me personally and professionally. It started out being a “bad” kind of insane, but last week it turned around and has become a “good” kind of insane. Nevertheless, I’m overwhelmed and just haven’t had the luxury of researching and handicapping every football game in the nation as thoroughly as I usually do. So what I’ve done is stick close to home: I’ve concentrated on my local schools, since I know their personnel and tendencies like the back of my hand. Even if I didn’t, I’ve got no shortage of people I can call around here who do. I’ve also concentrated on a concept that has worked well for me in the past—sort of a “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” approach. The lesson for you to take away from this: if you’re ever in a position where you haven’t been able to properly break down the entire slate of games—not only in college football but in any sport—stick to what you know works and/or teams that you know well.
A propos of that we’ll pick on our other big South Carolina school and take Wake Forest plus the points here. Again, a few simple concepts that we’ve discussed in past issues are at play here. This Clemson team is not that good and, more significantly, are incredibly inconsistent. Wake Forest is a scrappy team that I love to take as a dog, but want to go against as a favorite. Jim Grobe has a 18-8-1 ATS record as an underdog which is a testimony to the hard work and skill of he and his staff. He’s one of our favorite coaches in terms of preparation and how they “call” a game. The reality is that the personnel of these two teams isn’t as far apart as this price would indicate and we’re getting the far better preparation/game coach plus a good number of points. All this Wake Forest team has done is cover 4 straight against Clemson, cover 5 of the L7 at “Death Valley” and 10 of the L15 overall. This one they’ll get outright but we’ve got a good margin for error if they don’t. WAKE FOREST 28-24
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Dr. C
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NFL
Minnesota @ Green Bay: 27-20 Packers
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh: 31-23 Steelers
St. Louis @ New Orleans: 41-10 Saints
Jacksonville @ Tennessee: 17-9 Titans
Philadelphia @ Washington: 21-20 Redskins
Atlanta @ Carolina: 17-3 Falcons
Detroit @ Arizona: 27-17 Lions
Cowboys @ Giants: 35-28 Cowboys
Chicago @ Oakland: 24-13 Bears
San Francisco @ Seattle: 27-6 Seahawks
STONE COLD LOCKS
Buffalo @ Miami: LINE: -3 BUF 24-6 Bills
Cincinnati @ Baltimore: OVER/UNDER: 44.5, TAKE THE UNDER 20-17 Ravens
Indianapolis @ San Diego: LINE: -4 IND 31-17 Colts
For more analysis and detail on Dr. C's selections, click here.
The Original JD
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NFL
Cleveland (+9.5) over PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati (+4) over BALTIMORE
Detroit (-1) over ARIZONA
Indianapolis (-4.5) over SAN DIEGO
NCAA Football
CLEMSON (-9) over Wake Forest
SYRACUSE (+16.5) over South Florida
UConn (+6.5) over CINCINNATI
For more analysis and detail on JD's selections, click here and here.
DMtShooter
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NFL
PITTSBURGH covering 9.5 over Cleveland.
Minnesota as the 5.5 point underdog in GREEN BAY.
Philadelphia as a 3 point underdog in WASHINGTON.
TENNESSEE in a pick'em against Jacksonville.
Atlanta covering 4 on the road in CAROLINA.
KANSAS CITY in a pick'em against Denver.
Buffalo covering 3 against MIAMI.
St. Louis as an 11.5 point dog in NEW ORLEANS.
Cincinnati as a 4 point dog in BALTIMORE.
Chicago covering 3.5 in OAKLAND.
Dallas covering 1.5 points on the road against the GIANTS.
ARIZONA covering 1 against Detroit.
Indianapolis cover 3.5 against SAN DIEGO.
SEATTLE covering 10 against San Francisco.
For more analysis and detail on Shooter's selections, click here.
Stan
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NFL
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Denver
Buffalo (-3) over MIAMI
PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over Cleveland
St. Louis (+12) over NEW ORLEANS
Philadelphia (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
Minnesota (+6) over GREEN BAY
Chicago (-3) over OAKLAND
Detroit (-1) over ARIZONA
For more analysis and detail on Stan's selections, click here.
Simon
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NFL
Minnesota Vikings (+6 1/2) at Green Bay Packers
Tennessee Titans (-4 1/2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts (-3 1/2) at San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals (+5 1/2) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Detroit Lions(+1 1/2) at Arizona Cardinals
For more analysis and detail on Simon's selections, click here.
And, of course, as you all know, these picks are purely for entertainment purposes. Illegal wagering is a crime in the United States of America.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
THE RUNDOWN: REMEMBERING "THE ED REED GAME"
by Davey, Blown Coverage
The Rundown is my weekly "gambling" column that runs every Wednesday afternoon. It's based on and inspired by the time I spent working at sports books.
If you wager on sports, you must be familiar with losing and you're probably also familiar with those heart shattering/mind raping losses. You know, the ones where you either lose a big chunk of cash or when your team chokes in an unbelievable fashion. And yes, the really fun losses combine those two aspects and you find yourself getting really cozy with a razor blade.
I've lost some memorable wagers and prop bests when for example Daunte Culpepper fumbled at the goal line and when Brian Westbrook couldn't muster up 1 extra rushing yard. But today I'm going to share a wager with you that still makes me flaccid to this day. I call it "The Ed Reed Game". Ironically, today is the 3 year anniversary of the Ed Reed Game.
The year was 2004. The Red Sox just completed their memorable World Series win and even though I have no interest in the Sox whatsoever, I enjoyed seeing the looks on the faces of the Yankees fans in the office.
I pointed, I laughed, I grabbed my crotch, I mocked and I basically enjoyed every minute of it. I was this close to getting my skull kicked in, but still, I had as much fun with it as I could.
Meanwhile, Ricky Williams had abandoned my Dolphins and set in motion a pathetic season in which they were horrible and finished 4-12. So, with baseball season over and football season going like sh*it on a stick, I kept busy with office pools, fantasy teams and I started to wager pretty regularly on games.
Things were going pretty good and during week 9, the Cleveland Browns were going to play at the Baltimore Ravens. After a surprising 9-7 season in 2002, the Browns went 5-11 in 2003 and going into week 9 in '04, they were 3-4 and had a Sunday Night game in Baltimore.
These were the Jeff Garcia led Browns so their offense wasn't really reminding anyone of the '98 Vikings. As for the Ravens, they were 4-3 going into that game and as usually is the case with Baltimore, the strength was defense, not offense. I'm actually being pretty kind here because that Kyle Boller led offense was downright lethargic at times.
Either way, I had a feeling that the Ravens would win and this one had the makings of a low scoring affair. I was thinking 24-7 Baltimore and but for some reason I felt like wagering on the over/under.
I ignored the spread and fixated on the over/under that at the time was 35. After giving it some thought, I was convinced that these two offenses would not combine for more than 35 points. I could have bought some points and raised it a little, but in the end I just had a decent amount of cash on the game total staying under 35.
That night, I sat back comfortably in my office chair, blissfully ignorant and not knowing what was about to happen. I kept muttering phrases like "I'm strong like a bull" and I started to make a list with options of how I was going to spend my winnings.
Then, the game got underway. Baltimore kicked-off and Cleveland returner Richard Alston returned it 93 yards for a touchdown. That was just life trying to remind me that today I was definitely not strong like a bull and that he was going to screw me over any way possible. I mean, when you're hoping for teams to not score, kick return touchdowns end up hurting just so much extra.
Both teams added field goals after that and at the start of the second quarter, it was a 10-3 lead for Cleveland. The second quarter saw 3 Matt Stover field goals and going into halftime the Ravens were leading 12-10. Not bad, but it could have been better.
I started to sweat some Eric Mangini sized bullets because I needed these two teams to combine for just 12 points in the second half. 13 points would have been accepted as well because I wouldn't lost any money with a push but that was obviously the limit.
The third quarter passed and since neither team had scored, I started to sport a massive erection. This was the beauty of watching Cleveland and Baltimore play offense and it was exactly what I had in mind when I placed the wager. As you can imagine, I was never happier to see Kyle Boller and Jeff Garcia line up under center.
The 4th quarter started and even though Cleveland made it deep into Ravens territory, the drive stalled and they settled for a short field goal. 13-12 lead for Cleveland and I was still in business. I was still sporting that erection and once again I was letting everyone know that I was as strong as a bull.
But things would get pretty sh*tty with about 7 minutes to go. Jamal Lewis punched it in from 2 yards out and Baltimore would somehow get the 2-point conversion. 20-13 lead for the Ravens and this was basically it. There could be no more scoring after this. A safety would mean a push, anything else would mean anal bleeding.
The Browns got the ball back and after a drive that seemingly took forever, they found themselves on Baltimore's 5 yard line with about 1 minute left on the clock. Cleveland needed the touchdown to tie and go to overtime. I needed the defensive stop.
To say that my stomach was upset was an understatement. And what happened next has haunted me for the past couple of years and something I still can't believe happened.
Jeff Garcia dropped back, threw into the endzone and the ball got tipped and was alertly intercepted by Ed Reed. When Reed caught the ball, I let out a primitive scream because this meant game over and with that score at 20-13, the cold hard cash was mine.
What I didn't expect was for Reed to get cheeky and return that interception 106 yards the other way for a touchdown. All while hopping and doing some sort of Raven type wing flap with his arms.
If you watch the video below, it starts at the 2:31 mark. The ball gets tipped, Reed makes a great catch and instead of taking a kneel, he takes off 106 yards the other way, hopping and prancing into the endzone while I was stood motionless and tried not to puke from my eyes.
Baltimore 27. Cleveland 13. Davey flacid and comatose.
The Ed Reed game stands out for me for several reasons. It's not everyday that you lose a wager on a 106 yard interception return and especially not on the last play of the game. And the fact that Reed has always been one of my favorite players just made it so much more awkward than it already was.
Take a player you admire on some random team. Watch him as he does something amazing late in a game to seal victory for his team but instead of enjoying the moment, you wish for sweet death because he screwed you out of your dear currency. Add some heavy ridicule from your supervisor and other co-workers and you have something that resembles "the Ed Reed game".
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